wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 yea that is sick Grats on your 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 OK so I'll say it first. Still time for one more jog north to get DC in the "blue"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There is the model output and what the storm actually does. For someone on the northern fringe...any slight shift is huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 18z GFS with the cliff hangar.. It's interesting. over past 3 months the Euro has been the QPf king in terms of verification at 24 and 48 hrs. HPC does not run it for 36 hours but I suspect it would win there too. The GFS has been second at the .25 and .50 inch thresholds. The SREF mean and NAM have generally been lower. The euro has been resolution than the GFS which may be of benefit in this case but sometimes spreading out precip helps in terms of verification of ETS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 what was really nice about the GFS run was the 5H vort was even stronger than 12Z, albeit a hair south so things basically evened out for DCA/BWI still up in the air for BWI and I sure would love to see the 0Z models jog north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 0z NAM will be... useless. I'm still holding to 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Based on the GFS clown map, DC is in the 3-4" range with areas just off to the east towards in the bay in the 4-5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'll have to live vicariously through others. Best of luck to the southerners... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 so i guess the wheelhouse for the NAM is truly 2 hours after the event starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 so i guess the wheelhouse for the NAM is truly 2 hours after the event starts In this case, the NAM is the lead car with the GFS drafting (for our Southern VA posters) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Let's see what the 21Z SREF does. Not as much interested in actual QPF, but the QPF trends. IF the SREF still holds on to something similar to the 15Z version...despite what the NAM did at 18Z...that would be encouraging.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I still think the probability of 3 inches or less is probalby around 90% or so and about equally dividing between little or no accumulation and 1-3 inch. here was my 5pm update on my facebook page: 5pm Update: These probabilities are for DC and immediate burbs....there is an extremely sharp gradient. So you would need to adjust down if in the northern/western burbs and up for southern. Next update around 11pm Complete Whiff (No Precip) - 10% Light Snow with maybe some mix not accumulating well other than cartops and some grassy areas, Dusting to 1/2" - 20% Mostly snow with some steadier bursts, Around 1" with some street/sidewalk accumulation possible, esp. after dark - 30% Accumulating snow, especially late afternoon into evening when snow may become steadier/heavier and accumulate easier, 1-3", with ~2" most probable - 30% Moderate to significant snowstorm with periods of heavy snow, 3-6" - 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 sorry about my meltdown earlier...anyway....maybe the GFS is too far north but not by much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No earth shattering changes on the 18z RGEM, 18Z NAM could have been a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 sorry about my meltdown earlier...anyway....maybe the GFS is too far north but not by much? It was understandable.... don't worry about it. I would say the GFS has the right idea probably right where its at now.. maybe there will be some slight movement but I think its probably right where it will likely end up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No earth shattering changes on the 18z RGEM, 18Z NAM could have been a blip.NAM is king of the blip I still kinda like it tho .. good for svr day of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For phone viewers. At least there's some room to spare n of dc for *something* to accumulate. Well, room to spare on this run anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the trend in this range is still usually north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 sorry about my meltdown earlier...anyway....maybe the GFS is too far north but not by much? Certainly possible that it is too far north, but where do we stand if the euro continues (albeit marginally) to move the precip north and the NAM reverts back to where it was prior to the latest run. No one knows. I wouldn't be surprised if areas along a line from DC to Naptown saw 2-4" and I wouldn't be surprised if they saw nothing more than a dusting. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Like I said don't sweat that NAM stuff. I will have a forecst by 11pm. The way the accumualions are set up are indicative of the belief that this storm will move a Lot more east than north once it nears the coast. I don't agree, so far, with that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No earth shattering changes on the 18z RGEM, 18Z NAM could have been a blip. I surmise 15mm or so at DCA -- which is .5 to .6... which is in line with 15z SREFs QPF mean and slightly higher than the 18z GFS of .45ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the trend in this range is still usually north. I'm glad you said this because I've certainly been thinking it. There will no doubt be a band of heavy precip on the nw side of the system. Unless my memory is totally skewed, I swear it ends up nw more often than not. Especially nw of my house when "i'm in the bullseye for the THE BAND" leading up. I've often wondered if it was elevation/upslope enhanced in areas like mt airy, westminster, manchester, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just getting back in here since earlier today. Reading last few pages, the mood is all over the place it would seem.. Me as well. I'm praying to grab an inch or two, then Tommy T (WBAL Balt) shows ZERO precip from NOVA north. Maybe I have to start realizing that I don't' need to move to FL when I'm old. Florida is moving to me..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 0z NAM will be... useless. I'm still holding to 2-4 Let's hope so. My forecast for Prince William county is a general 3-5 with slightly higher amounts in the SE part of the county. Any change in tonights run of the EURO IMHO will be to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm glad you said this because I've certainly been thinking it. There will no doubt be a band of heavy precip on the nw side of the system. Unless my memory is totally skewed, I swear it ends up nw more often than not. Especially nw of my house when "i'm in the bullseye for the THE BAND" leading up. I've often wondered if it was elevation/upslope enhanced in areas like mt airy, westminster, manchester, etc. yes.. many times the fringe guys end up getting plastered. i mean, it's probably way less likely to happen if it includes the immediate dc area.. but it's still there. it's not really even an urban myth either as far as im concerned. yeah, some storms don't do that, but many or most do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This should have an awesome deformation band on the NW side. Good luck guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 yes.. many times the fringe guys end up getting plastered. i mean, it's probably way less likely to happen if it includes the immediate dc area.. but it's still there. it's not really even an urban myth either as far as im concerned. yeah, some storms don't do that, but many or most do. It's why the NWS is correct in putting up WS Watch for DC. Philly area and such? No, cuz they have to choose some cut off. But DC is close enough fringe area to warrant a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This should have an awesome deformation band on the NW side. Good luck guys. Coastal, do you have any of those maps you post re the deform stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This should have an awesome deformation band on the NW side. Good luck guys. And there we have it....LOL I wish I had a memory like zwyts and co with how exactly storms played out in comparison to models. Strong 5h lows always have that sick "yellow stripe" on the NW side. Best case scenario for dc-bwi areas would be to get in on a piece of it. Prob a stretch but not fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM is king of the blip I still kinda like it tho .. good for svr day of This was sort of against the usual 18Z NAM bias in the short range, it tends to go very wet and north/west on the 18Z runs and the 06Z GFS tends to go suppressed and dry...they don't always follow those tendencies but when they blip it usually is in those directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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