Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For phone viewers. At least there's some room to spare n of dc for *something* to accumulate. Well, room to spare on this run anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the trend in this range is still usually north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 sorry about my meltdown earlier...anyway....maybe the GFS is too far north but not by much? Certainly possible that it is too far north, but where do we stand if the euro continues (albeit marginally) to move the precip north and the NAM reverts back to where it was prior to the latest run. No one knows. I wouldn't be surprised if areas along a line from DC to Naptown saw 2-4" and I wouldn't be surprised if they saw nothing more than a dusting. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Like I said don't sweat that NAM stuff. I will have a forecst by 11pm. The way the accumualions are set up are indicative of the belief that this storm will move a Lot more east than north once it nears the coast. I don't agree, so far, with that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No earth shattering changes on the 18z RGEM, 18Z NAM could have been a blip. I surmise 15mm or so at DCA -- which is .5 to .6... which is in line with 15z SREFs QPF mean and slightly higher than the 18z GFS of .45ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the trend in this range is still usually north. I'm glad you said this because I've certainly been thinking it. There will no doubt be a band of heavy precip on the nw side of the system. Unless my memory is totally skewed, I swear it ends up nw more often than not. Especially nw of my house when "i'm in the bullseye for the THE BAND" leading up. I've often wondered if it was elevation/upslope enhanced in areas like mt airy, westminster, manchester, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just getting back in here since earlier today. Reading last few pages, the mood is all over the place it would seem.. Me as well. I'm praying to grab an inch or two, then Tommy T (WBAL Balt) shows ZERO precip from NOVA north. Maybe I have to start realizing that I don't' need to move to FL when I'm old. Florida is moving to me..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 0z NAM will be... useless. I'm still holding to 2-4 Let's hope so. My forecast for Prince William county is a general 3-5 with slightly higher amounts in the SE part of the county. Any change in tonights run of the EURO IMHO will be to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm glad you said this because I've certainly been thinking it. There will no doubt be a band of heavy precip on the nw side of the system. Unless my memory is totally skewed, I swear it ends up nw more often than not. Especially nw of my house when "i'm in the bullseye for the THE BAND" leading up. I've often wondered if it was elevation/upslope enhanced in areas like mt airy, westminster, manchester, etc. yes.. many times the fringe guys end up getting plastered. i mean, it's probably way less likely to happen if it includes the immediate dc area.. but it's still there. it's not really even an urban myth either as far as im concerned. yeah, some storms don't do that, but many or most do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This should have an awesome deformation band on the NW side. Good luck guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 yes.. many times the fringe guys end up getting plastered. i mean, it's probably way less likely to happen if it includes the immediate dc area.. but it's still there. it's not really even an urban myth either as far as im concerned. yeah, some storms don't do that, but many or most do. It's why the NWS is correct in putting up WS Watch for DC. Philly area and such? No, cuz they have to choose some cut off. But DC is close enough fringe area to warrant a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This should have an awesome deformation band on the NW side. Good luck guys. Coastal, do you have any of those maps you post re the deform stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This should have an awesome deformation band on the NW side. Good luck guys. And there we have it....LOL I wish I had a memory like zwyts and co with how exactly storms played out in comparison to models. Strong 5h lows always have that sick "yellow stripe" on the NW side. Best case scenario for dc-bwi areas would be to get in on a piece of it. Prob a stretch but not fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM is king of the blip I still kinda like it tho .. good for svr day of This was sort of against the usual 18Z NAM bias in the short range, it tends to go very wet and north/west on the 18Z runs and the 06Z GFS tends to go suppressed and dry...they don't always follow those tendencies but when they blip it usually is in those directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 And there we have it....LOL I wish I had a memory like zwyts and co with how exactly storms played out in comparison to models. Strong 5h lows always have that sick "yellow stripe" on the NW side. Best case scenario for dc-bwi areas would be to get in on a piece of it. Prob a stretch but not fantasy. Well said. As for me, I would definitely side on the "it still might come north" camp if it wasn't for the crappy winters the last two years. I'm a big believer in the notion that patterns begets patterns, and until we see some snow here, I remain pessimistic. Albeit, cautiously pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ok, model summary time (DCA centric): Hits: 18z GFS, 18z RGEM, 15z SREF mean, 12z JMA Fringes: 12z Euro, 12z WRF-ARW, 12z UKMET, 12z NOGAPSComplete misses: 18z NAM, 12z WRF-NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well this gets awfully close to DC, but just SE verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ok, model summary time (DCA centric): Hits: 18z GFS, 18z RGEM, 15z SREF mean, 12z JMA Fringes: 12z Euro, 12z WRF-ARW, 12z UKMET, 12z NOGAPS Complete misses: 18z NAM, 12z WRF-NMM The hits versus the fringes make for an evenly matched competition when verification is taken into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Most of the lift in the DC area is like 600-500mb which if strong enough, could really put down decent snow. But, 25 miles will mean everything and it appears DC rides the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I haven't seen anyone ask about this yet, but what are the ratios going to be on the rain-snow conversion? Because if it's a heavy wet snow, that .3 qpf won't be 3 inches, it would be more like 1 of slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This could be a nice pants tent for Midlo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Most of the lift in the DC area is like 600-500mb which if strong enough, could really put down decent snow. But, 25 miles will mean everything and it appears DC rides the line. Coastal, could you explain this a lil bit? I don't quite follow what you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This could be a nice pants tent for Midlo. I don't think he needs snow for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I haven't seen anyone ask about this yet, but what are the ratios going to be on the rain-snow conversion? Because if it's a heavy wet snow, that .3 qpf won't be 3 inches, it would be more like 1 of slush. Probably 8:1 to start ending off as 12:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 .01 for MBY. It's not looking good for those of us to NW. I am glad the rest of u are finally going to get some winter though. Midlo looks to be in great shape. Maybe time for one of your GIfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For phone viewers. At least there's some room to spare n of dc for *something* to accumulate. Well, room to spare on this run anyways. gfs18qpf.JPG Bob, if you compare that close up with attention to the cut off with the 12Z run cutoff, this run is much more smoothed with lighter precip heading further n and w could just be a blip or maybe a sign for 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Coastal, could you explain this a lil bit? I don't quite follow what you mean Well this is an 850-500 averaged VV an RH product. As you can see, it has a pretty good slug of VV as inidcated by the oranges and reds over VA and the shaded contour indicated greater than 90% RH through the layer which is good. You can see on 03z Friday that the deep VV as inidicated by purple is more towards VA and the tidewater area. However, things in the atmosphere tilt in the vertical. In our hemisphere, things tilt from east to west or SE to NW so deep VV at 700mb in one area many times extends to 600 and 500mb, but perhaps 50 miles west of where the good 700mb VV are located. IMHO putting all this together would have the band near or just SE of DC proper...but this is just one model's interpretation. Basically, the edge of that shaded area is probably the back edge of the heaviest echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You guys can loop H7 on the NCEP products and see a nice linear line of lift starting after 12z tomorrow. Notice at 18z we have strong lift over central VA. This is due to strong frontogenesis. Look at those wind vectors from west to east over DC and south to north near RIC. This is frontogenesis folks. You are tightening the thermal gradient and as a result, creating a steeper slope to which air moves upwards. Without getting technical, the atmosphere loves to set up a circulation on the warm side of this gradient in order to restore this thermal imbalance we have in a short distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I couldn';t attach an image, but here is what I was referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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