Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It is some incredibly stupid logic, but people need to make themselves feel smart, so.......it might be right.. i think it is/was basically a coin flip plus some bias one way or another as to whether we get into it up DC area anyway. but this backed well south and it's just one run. the whole run to run cancel/uncancel thing is old and seems more common now than it once was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 i mean the nam might be right now but if we were sure it was wrong before why would we be sure it's right now. because it is showing a screwjob for DC! the old DC corollary works: pick the model that screws you the most, and it will likely be right. Btw, watch the evening newscasts lead off with MAJOR SNOW HYPE, then they'll go to the meteorologists, who then will have to toe the line between downplaying (because they see the latest model runs) and hyping (to keep consistent with the producer's script)! Sickens me how they will let ratings taint their credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it might be right.. i think it is/was basically a coin flip plus some bias one way or another as to whether we get into it up DC area anyway. but this backed well south and it's just one run. the whole run to run cancel/uncancel thing is old and seems more common now than it once was. it shifted 75 miles south and changed synoptically 24 hours from an event......euro was rock solid for 2 straight runs....the precip shield has to be worked out, and there will be fluctuations but the writing is on the wall..I am hoping for an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 what is your forecast?..we are 24 hours away Sometime I believe it is best to say, when necessary, that I don't have one. This is a situation that sprung out of nowhere about 20 hours ago. I can say that high pressure has had more of an influence over last 5 days than was forecasted so that could be a bad thing. On these "northern fringe" storms what I really key in on is how far into Kentucky does the precip. shield make it. What I see so far is inconclusive. Will wait until about 9-11pm and then will do a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Can't the NAM have been "right" each time, as it were? If the PV retreats a tad as modeled earlier, a nice bit of snow gets up to DC. If the PV is stronger and the energy further south as modeled on this latest run, hosed. Each is a possibilty, no? The bigger question I would have is which is likely to be closer to how it actually turns out? That's where mets etc. come in, I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Sometime I believe it is best to say, when necessary, that I don't have one. This is a situation that sprung out of nowhere about 20 hours ago. I can say that high pressure has had more of an influence over last 5 days that was forecasted so that could be a bad thing. On these "northern fringe" storms what I really key in on is how far into Kentucky does the precip. shield make it. What I see so far is inconclusive. Will wait until about 9-11pm and then will do a forecast smart move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it shifted 75 miles south and changed synoptically 24 hours from an event......euro was rock solid for 2 straight runs....the precip shield has to be worked out, and there will be fluctuations but the writing is on the wall..I am hoping for an inch and changed to a synoptic evolution in line with all the other southern guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The NAM just threw in the towel on a significant event...sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 and changed to a synoptic evolution in line with all the other southern guidance. yes...exactly....I dont know why this is lost on people...it was an outlier and came in line with other guidance...hopefully the models throw us some QPF and we at least see some flakes or maybe an inch or 2 at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Think I'll reserve judgement until the 18z GFS. The NAM turns more tricks than a cheap hooker, and this could be just another. Getting zwyts' inch or two would, of course, be a victory (of sorts), especially in light of the snow drought. But I'd still be bitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Stress levels probably rising out west... More like where they have issued the warnings for 8-10 inches of snow down by CHO already by LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Think I'll reserve judgement until the 18z GFS. The NAM turns more tricks than a cheap hooker, and this could be just another. Getting zwyts' inch or two would, of course, be a victory (of sorts), especially in light of the snow drought. But I'd still be bitter. The GFS will not be good...but it usually has a more expansive precip shield so maybe it gets .10 to 0.25 up here...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Sometime I believe it is best to say, when necessary, that I don't have one. This is a situation that sprung out of nowhere about 20 hours ago. I can say that high pressure has had more of an influence over last 5 days thnt was forecasted so that could be a bad thing. On these "northern fringe" storms what I really key in on is how far into Kentucky does the precip. shield make it. What I see so far is inconclusive. Will wait until about 9-11pm and then will do a forecastagree. no one was basing their 'forecast' on the nam. that's a strawman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 because it had little to no support before...now it matches the euro with some differences in the precip shield GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The GFS will not be good...but it usually has a more expansive precip shield so maybe it gets .10 to 0.25 up here...we'll see It's out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS? my prediction is the GFS will move in line with other guidance but throw us more precip...maybe the southern burbs and DC proper can get 1-2"....or maybe I am wrong and the NAM will shift north 100 miles nextrun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREFS or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 One thing to keep in mind is that with the GFS's 12 28 km resolution, the precip shield edge is going to be way more diffuse than what it will actually be. Which is razor thin thanks to the convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 because it had little to no support before...now it matches the euro with some differences in the precip shield How can you say that when the gfs was so similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm totally impressed by Zwyts' zealous defense of his idea of a DC whiff (screw job)...he's kept me grounded throughout the day, and given me a deep sense imminent disappointment. I absolutely took the 18z NAM in stride due to his efforts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 More like where they have issued the warnings for 8-10 inches of snow down by CHO already by LWX Moved too quick on that, no real need to know at 2pm in the afternoon. NAM is really not forecasting anyway, just showing a different scenario this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 One thing to keep in mind is that with the GFS's NAM's 12km resolution, the precip shield edge is going to be way more diffuse than what it will actually be. Which is razor thin thanks to the convergence. The GFS is not 12km, the operational is currently on the T574 grid which is roughly 27 km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Leesburg crew was never in this game....hope you guys still have a chance....18z nam in its deadly range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 "All the other guidance" = EURO apparently ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Are the SREFs considered accurate within this time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 "All the other guidance" = EURO apparently ;-) Matts just doing a little chest thumping right now...no worries...if DC is getting snow tomorrow he will be a top 3 poster in the obs thread. It will be like the NAM never existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 So it's one 18z run(usually a ****ty run) of a ****ty model, and the European.....versus......everyone else? Yeah, not good enough reason to give up just yet.....lets see what the gfs says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 "All the other guidance" = EURO apparently ;-) 12 of the15z SREF members have 2"+ at DCA...so that's something to hang your hat on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 my prediction is the GFS will move in line with other guidance but throw us more precip...maybe the southern burbs and DC proper can get 1-2"....or maybe I am wrong and the NAM will shift north 100 miles nextrun My point was that you can't just say it had no support. I have no hand in this fight I've always been out of it but I'm not sure what your crusade is about. If u adjust the nam for its known bias of overdoing precip it actually matched up well with the gfs sref and rgem. The ggem And unmet were with the euro. I think it's unfair to imply anyone was basing their forecast on the nam alone. The nam had plenty of support just not from the euro. You seem to have gone full tilt today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 this thread is pretty bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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