mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 unless a sudden shift, it's way south looking to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREF > NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm on my iPhone but I'm wondering if its just much slower? No it is a significant shift south with regards to the upper level features and northern extent, looks like no precip falls in DC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 well that was fun...at least we didn't track this one for 7+ days to be disappointed...haha Well, we have to apply the caveat that it IS the NAM, good or bad. I'd wait for the GFS before tossing this one out fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREF > NAM We can hope. But weren't we riding the SREFs for the 2010 boxing day fiasco late and they didn't catch that snow hole really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 All hail King EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 from .7 to 0.0 in one run 24 hours before the storm.......... great model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 euro wins again...you guys can have fun with this one...I'll hope to see some light snow and if not no big deal....NAM is an absolutely wretched model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We can hope. But weren't we riding the SREFs for the 2010 boxing day fiasco late and they didn't catch that snow hole really...storms arent really at all comparable. i mean the nam might be right now but if we were sure it was wrong before why would we be sure it's right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Problem is pretty apparent right here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Zwyts for the win. Nam sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wow...I think even CHO is dry on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wow...I think even CHO is dry on the 18z NAM. Shouldn't that be a huge red flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 storms arent really at all comparable. i mean the nam might be right now but if we were sure it was wrong before why would we be sure it's right now. I am not. For my area, its all nothings anyway, but I am certainly hoping the SREFs are onto something, because with them, I might see a flake or two. Just noting that close-in with sharp cut-off systems, not sure SREFs or NAM or other models can really nail the exact cutoff, other than there is going to be one. Still crossing my fingers that you all cash in, in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Zwyts for the win. Nam sucks I think most of us that have been doing this for a while knew that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 lol after dozens of consistent runs by the NAM, GFS, SREF, we get one bad one and it's game over?? Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 storms arent really at all comparable. i mean the nam might be right now but if we were sure it was wrong before why would we be sure it's right now. because it had little to no support before...now it matches the euro with some differences in the precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 id actually be way more pessimistic if the SREFs came in dry than I am with the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 from .7 to 0.0 in one run 24 hours before the storm.......... great model lol. You were ready to felch it when it was dumping snow on you. This is what the NAM is notorious for doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 storms arent really at all comparable. i mean the nam might be right now but if we were sure it was wrong before why would we be sure it's right now. Because most guidance supports this outcome and we under 24 hours from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I can just hear the weenies driving down Rt. 2 towards the Bay Bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Problem is pretty apparent right here.... namouch.JPG Look at the top of the two images. There is a piece of energy breaking off the polar vortex that shoves the southern stream energy south. It was as strong in the first image which allowed the storm to come further north into DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Because most guidance supports this outcome and we are under 24 hours from the event. "Most guidance"? SREF and GFS are very different. At least until the 18Z GFS - hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Because most guidance supports this outcome and we are under 24 hours from the event.i'd at least wait till the gfs before throwing in the towel but i know people aren't that rational here. the same model they swear is the worst thing ever is now correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Cover all the bases programming mode in effect. Don't sweat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Zwyts for the win. Nam sucks Can't we ever just get a littel less....it is always all or nothing for us it seems in one run. This one stings a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Cover all the bases programming mode in effect. Don't sweat it. what is your forecast?..we are 24 hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What a nightmare for LWX, especially with the timing. Stress levels probably rising out west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It is some incredibly stupid logic, but people need to make themselves feel smart, so....... i'd at least wait till the gfs before throwing in the towel but i know people aren't that rational here. the same model they swear is the worst thing ever is now correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It is some incredibly stupid logic, but people need to make themselves feel smart, so....... the Nam caught onto this threat being legitimate 18 hours ago....now it has swung wildly and looks a lot more like the euro on a run that is CLOSER to the event./...It may be too far south, but is a a disgraceful model...it is an abomination every winter and I should be punished for ever using it after I have sworn off it 100 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.