Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 La La Lock it up! Looks like BWI gets something this time, but not even advisory level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't have great maps, but looks like DCA is about 0.6" and precip makes it to the M/D line That's actually pretty good. I think a solid case can be made for 2-4 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREF is about how I'd like to see all the models look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like BWI gets something this time, but not even advisory level. BWI is between .25 and .5 easily in advisory level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREF is about how I'd like to see all the models look. since it is the most recent one run...perhaps you get your wish at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like BWI gets something this time, but not even advisory level. Yes, they do... .25 or so at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 BWI is between .25 and .5 easily in advisory level. Forgive my old eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREF is about how I'd like to see all the models look. It's the more gradual gradient that would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 i understand punting the NAM 48 hour out...but do we really punt it the night before the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREF sure put a notch in discounting the euro as the driest solution. I'm not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 weather channel RIC under winter storm watch with 2-4" and may be over 5" snow could be really heavy at times scrolling across the screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's the more gradual gradient that would be nice.im nervous but i still lean snowy. this one's gonna do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WxUSAF... when do the plumes come out after the SREFs are run? I would like to know how the 15z and 09z runs compare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just getting online, good trends and appearing to be on northern fringe does have one merit in that precip type is rarely an issue. Modest lows that are getting themselves together as they move thru MS/AL/GA/SC/NC are good snow makers for DC. I don't think we are waiting for another thing else to drop in so radar and surface obs will work. The cold air source in and of itself is not suppressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 stop watching that garbage URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 235 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 VAZ060-065>071-079-080-170600- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.130117T2200Z-130118T0600Z/ PRINCE EDWARD-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN- CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARMVILLE...SOUTH HILL...CREWE... COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...LAWRENCEVILLE 235 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * AREAS AFFECTED: THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THROUGH RICHMOND. * HAZARDS: SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. * TIMING: SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON GRASSY AREAS. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. weather channel RIC under winter storm watch with 2-4" and may be over 5" snow could be really heavy at times scrolling across the screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If 25-50 miles is a problem then it is a great problem to have instead of 37/38* and 150 miles away or 38 and right over top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WxUSAF... when do the plumes come out after the SREFs are run? I would like to know how the 15z and 09z runs compare I went back and looked at when I posted them this morning, and it wasn't until 10:15am or so, so they must not have been up on SPC's site until at least 10am. So, unless somebody finds them in a faster place, I'm thinking we are still waiting another hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Through 12 on the 18Z NAM, the vort looks a bit stronger and slightly better tilted (and a hair north). Still very early of course, and the differences, while positive to my eyes, are small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Man...Western Carolina gets smoked if that is all snow I've got friends in Boone, NC. They're going to get lit up, that's for sure. WxUSAF... when do the plumes come out after the SREFs are run? I would like to know how the 15z and 09z runs compare I don't know exactly...I'm not sure which webpage is fastest, I use the PSU metwall's page just because I find it the most user-friendly. But I'd say they're usually delayed about ~1 hour just off the top of my head. Here's the link I use: http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 250 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 VAZ025-036>038-503-504-170400- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0001.130117T1200Z-130118T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0001.130117T1500Z-130118T0600Z/ AUGUSTA-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO... CHARLOTTESVILLE...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY 250 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET THURSDAY MORNING... BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL END LATE THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED ALONG WITH POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 250 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 VAZ050-170400- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0001.130117T1400Z-130118T0700Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0001.130117T1500Z-130118T0600Z/ ORANGE- 250 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET THURSDAY MORNING... BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S. * WINDS...NORTH 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Oh boy... In regards to the northern precip shield 18z is significantly further south than 12z through 26 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 250 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 DCZ001-MDZ009-010-013-014-016>018-VAZ042-051>057-501-502-170400- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0001.130117T1400Z-130118T0700Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA... ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...CULPEPER... MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH... FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON 250 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF WASHINGTON DC THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 250 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 VAZ026-027-029-030-039-040-170400- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0001.130117T1200Z-130118T0300Z/ ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WARREN-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISONBURG...FRONT ROYAL...WASHINGTON 250 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET THURSDAY MORNING... BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW LATER THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL END LATE THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM. && $$ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 250 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 WVZ505-506-170400- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0001.130117T1200Z-130118T0300Z/ WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 250 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL END DURING THE EVENING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED ALONG. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Oh boy... In regards to the northern precip shield 18z is significantly further south than 12z through 26 hours. 700 is south also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Oh boy... In regards to the northern precip shield 18z is significantly further south than 12z through 26 hours. Yeah, it looked slightly better early, but went rapidly downhill thereafter. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Oh boy... In regards to the northern precip shield 18z is significantly further south than 12z through 26 hours. I'm on my iPhone but I'm wondering if its just much slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Complete whiff. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 lol, 18z NAM is a disaster. What a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just like that LWX changes their snow maps too, decreased snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 well that was fun...at least we didn't track this one for 7+ days to be disappointed...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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