Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks Midlo...feel free to make more commentary from RVA on our snow threat up here nothing to do with "YOUR" snow threat from "RVA" i'm just tired of the crying and moaning. this thread has just gone to **** over stupid stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ian...I am being justifiably cautious...The euro looked virtually identical to last night..still my prediction had DC with a 55% chance of 1-2"+....If you think I dont want snow because I am being justifiably skeptical, then you are an idiot and deserve to be called out as one...I am entitled to be bearish...If you want to cheerlead in complete contradiction to your usual buzzkill, wet blanket attitude that is your prerogative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 How does next weeks cold look on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 nothing to do with "YOUR" snow threat from "RVA" i'm just tired of the crying and moaning. this thread has just gone to **** over stupid stuff. of course you are zen like...you are getting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If you think I dont want snow and as much as possible you are an idiot...the euro run which was predictable bummed me out....there is barely any discernible difference between last nights run and todays...I wont ever be sucked in by the NAM on any storm ever...it is an absolute joke of a model I agree, last nights euro was horrible for this event and I see very little difference in the new run. We are 24 hours out and quickly running out of time for drastic improvements especially up here. Tomorrow's storm is nothing like the wave we had come through last night that shifted well north at the last minute. Hope I,m wrong but I'm very suspect of this one. There is just not enough support from the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 what's shown is near the limit of skill wrt where the cutoff will be. we can vacillate with every model and hug the euro like it loves to be hugged all day. not much forecasting there.. but carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why is there such a fuss about the euro? It's the driest outlier. It can be right or the nam or the gfs or the srefs or even the canadians. I know I'm not just going to toss everything for the driest outlier. This is a compact and relatively potent system. It was off the table for days and days because the stone wall of confluence to the N. Now the confluence isn't as awful and the storm is much more organized and stronger. 50-100 miles in any direction is well withing a fair margin for any model. I do not like the Euro inside of 36 hours, honestly I don't like it inside 60 either...it may show the highest verification scores at 500mb but that could mean its better more often in a pattern with a 1030mb high overhead, I still go NAM/GFS/RGEM more heavily once inside that range...still would feel pretty good in DC...maybe not as good as RDU or RIC but better than PHL/ILG/DOV/PHL thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ian...I am being justifiably cautious...The euro looked virtually identical to last night..still my prediction had DC with a 55% chance of 1-2"+....If you think I dont want snow because I am being justifiably skeptical, then you are an idiot and deserve to be called out as one...I am entitled to be bearish...If you want to cheerlead in complete contradiction to your usual buzzkill, wet blanket attitude that is your prerogativeif you think im wrongly framing your view why wrongly frame mine? i think we both actually see fairly similar conclusions as most likely.. i was just pointing out the euro has moved slightly better and it could very well be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 of course you are zen like...you are getting snow you're the one in a WSW not me i think your good for some accums hi res nam throws you a bone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 and there's really nothing wrong with pointing that out. It's fact, the euro has slightly improved. It's not like you or anyone else is saying that the euro is going to end up showing a 4-8" storm. if you think im wrongly framing your view why wrongly frame mine? i think we both actually see fairly similar conclusions as most likely.. i was just pointing out the euro has moved slightly better and it could very well be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the least skilled model and one that has f-uc%ed us in the a$$ repeatedly for years, is an outlier... im not forecasting the nam verbatim but it has support from sref and the gfs at least to a degree. i know playing it low is almost always the best course in dc. im not calling for 10" of snow. im actually more inclined to not comment at all anymore but i thought we were all in this even for the dustings or were supposed to be. things do dip back south or the northern edge is wrongly modeled but history is still generally on the side of at least partially hedging to the north trend within this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 if you think im wrongly framing your view why wrongly frame mine? i think we both actually see fairly similar conclusions as most likely.. i was just pointing out the euro has moved slightly better and it could very well be wrong. I am being objective as possible....I would never root against snow....I already admitted that my punt call will bust if we get anything more than a mixy cartopper....You think I give a sh-it about punting to the extent that I would root against snow is insane....I am being realistically cautious about a storm threat that only legitimately materialized 16 hours ago and which the most bullish model is the one with the least skill and an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 were people really expecting the Euro to go from showing .06 at 0z to .6 at 12z?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 im not forecasting the nam verbatim but it has support from sref and the gfs at least to a degree. i know playing it low is almost always the best course in dc. im not calling for 10" of snow. im actually more inclined to not comment at all anymore but i thought we were all in this even for the dustings or were supposed to be. things do dip back south or the northern edge is wrongly modeled but history is still generally on the side of at least partially hedging to the north trend within this range. I am ...I still like my call from 11am of a 55% chance of 1-2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I am being objective as possible....I would never root against snow....I already admitted that my punt call will bust if we get anything more than a mixy cartopper....You think I give a sh-it about punting to the extent that I would root against snow is insane....I am being realistically cautious about a storm threat that only legitimately materialized 16 hours ago and which the most bullish model is the one with the least skill and an outlier You are kind of obsessive today though. There really isn't much different at all between your forecast and what most others probably have in mind right now-- 1-2" from you, 2-4" from others. We all know the NAM sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 were people really expecting the Euro to go from showing .06 at 0z to .6 at 12z?? hundreds of an inch of QPF is inconsequential...the point is it held steady as a whiff...I think places like Rockville and Columbia get barely any liquid if any....since we are on the fringe those 50 miles are critical and it is not just a matter of a precip shield...the euro is less amped, less potent, further south and east so the output actually makes sense...it isnt a matter of an identical storm just having resolution problems on the edges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You are kind of obsessive today though. There really isn't much different at all between your forecast and what most others probably have in mind right now-- 1-2" from you, 2-4" from others. We all know the NAM sucks. well...I got defensive when Ian suggested repeatedly that I was rooting against snow because I didnt like the storm yesterday even though I have essentially the same call as him....simply because I was being objective about what the euro showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 were people really expecting the Euro to go from showing .06 at 0z to .6 at 12z?? no(at least I wasn't)but a solid .2 for DCA with a cutoff comfortably N of the beltway would ease concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 hundreds of an inch of QPF is inconsequential...the point is it held steady as a whiff...I think places like Rockville and Columbia get barely any liquid if any....since we are on the fringe those 50 miles are critical and it is not just a matter of a precip shield...the euro is less amped, less potent, further south and east so the output actually makes sense...it isnt a matter of an identical storm just having resolution problems on the edges Rockville is closer to 5 miles from DC than 50 fwiw. I don't see snowfall being too drastically different between there and DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 hundreds of an inch of QPF is inconsequential...the point is it held steady as a whiff...I think places like Rockville and Columbia get barely any liquid if any....since we are on the fringe those 50 miles are critical and it is not just a matter of a precip shield...the euro is less amped, less potent, further south and east so the output actually makes sense...it isnt a matter of an identical storm just having resolution problems on the edges Stop rooting against my snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 well...I got defensive when Ian suggested repeatedly that I was rooting against snow because I didnt like the storm yesterday even though I have essentially the same call as him....simply because I was being objective about what the euro showedBut you weren't entirely objective. The changes are small but it has continually improved at 500 if not much at the sfc. I can remember a number of times the Euro was wrong on precip coverage. I don't have a call because I'm not smart enough to figured out the gradient at this time. But i stil like the potential more than most of our storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Honestly, I could care less that the Euro didn't hop right on board with everyone else. I'm just glad it didn't go SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Rockville is closer to 5 miles from DC than 50 fwiw. I don't see snowfall being too drastically different between there and DC. that isnt what I said...re-read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 were people really expecting the Euro to go from showing .06 at 0z to .6 at 12z?? No. But you would like to see the .25 contour reach up to BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wes, I think you nailed your CWG write up. It clarified a lot of things that had been posted earlier on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 But you weren't entirely objective. The changes are small but it has continually improved at 500 if not much at the sfc. I can remember a number of times the Euro was wrong on precip coverage. I don't have a call because I'm not smart enough to figured out the gradient at this time. But i stil like the potential more than most of our storms. Thats why I did probabilities....my issues with the euro were not just the precip shield but that the precip shield is supported by the synoptic features which are considerably less bullish than the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 that isnt what I said...re-read You were saying the 50 miles between the Euro and GFS? If so, my apologies, I misread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 A nice blend of guidance puts at least 3-5" down in this area...obviously more as you move toward the mountains. Huff looks to do well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You were saying the 50 miles between the Euro and GFS? If so, my apologies, I misread. just that these 25-50 mile swings are crucial and when they aren't based on just precip shield coverage but on synoptic differences, it raised red flags.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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