Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 at least this will be quicklooks like it's going to be better again dopes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 nice euro coming in much colder for ric hr 30 that usually means bad news up here congrats and enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looks like it's going to be better again dopes I'll be dope for 3-5" of snow any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I mean its north again yes, but not that good. Euro maybe generally trends slowly until the event, but I'd want a bigger step Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I mean its north again yes, but not that good. Euro maybe generally trends slowly until the event, but I'd want a bigger step Ian. what trend?...we are 30 hours from the event...It is either going to get it right or bust...It is usually right...the American models will back off at 18z and we will look foolish and talk about how awful the NAM is only to suck its d-ick again next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I mean its north again yes, but not that good. Euro maybe generally trends slowly until the event, but I'd want a bigger step Ian. it's not much better but it is a bit better qpf wise around dc. two more runs of that might work. i'd like more too but i think we assume too much about skill on the edge anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 what trend?...we are 30 hours from the event...It is either going to get it right or bust...It is usually right...the American models will back off at 18z and we will look foolish and talk about how awful the NAM is only to suck its d-ick again next storm Even if 18z went back south it'd be hard to, I'd rather wait until 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it's not much better but it is a bit better qpf wise around dc. two more runs of that might work. i'd like more too but i think we assume too much about skill on the edge anyway. Very sensible post. I've seen the back edge end up broader inside of 12 hours. Heck, it's happened numerous times while nowcasting. We can easily get cut off too but saying the euro has it nailed is crazy talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it's not much better but it is a bit better qpf wise around dc. two more runs of that might work. i'd like more too but i think we assume too much about skill on the edge anyway. Do we actaully get QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Don't know if anyone posted this from the HPC Model Discussion: SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAYTROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAYPREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCETHE GUIDANCE SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY HAS TRENDED STRONGER(INCLUDING THE NAM) AND MORE SEPARATED BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THETROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WHICH LED TO A MORE NORTHERLYSURFACE LOW REMINISCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z NAM SOLUTION (THOUGHSEVERAL HOURS SLOWER). THIS TREND EXTENDS TO THE 00Z GLOBALENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. LIKE MOST DAYS, THE 12Z NAM IS THE STRONGESTOF THE GUIDANCE ALOFT AND MOST NORTHERLY AT THE SURFACE, LYING ATOR BEYOND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.CONSIDERING MODEL TRENDS, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE 12Z NAM.THEREFORE, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITHTHIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AS WINTER WEATHERPOTENTIAL (PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS) WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THESURFACE LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ITS UPPER LEVEL LOW. SEE THEPROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR MOREINFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM'S WINTER WEATHER POTENTIALACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Do we actaully get QPF? about .1" .. it's steadily gone up every run lately but the contours to the south stayed pretty constant from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 fwiw euro snow maps central southern va into nc 4-8" and as far east as williamsburg pockets of 8-12" in sw. western va ezf cho 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Do we actaully get QPF? it is dry, less amped..not a good run for us...maybe a cartopper or light dusting or event rain/snow mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 everyone has their biases but this is the best threat for the lowlands all season by far. not sure why we have to be mean to people who are tracking it or agreeing with nws etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 about .1" .. it's steadily gone up every run lately but the contours to the south stayed pretty constant from 0z. Okay, so what I think could happen is it could generally move those contours northward at 0z, getting DC to about .25, as it broadens the edge, that NW band could do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 everyone has their biases but this is the best threat for the lowlands all season by far. not sure why we have to be mean to people who are tracking it or agreeing with nws etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it is dry, less amped..not a good run for us...maybe a cartopper or light dusting or event rain/snow mix i know you are hoping very strongly for a miss since you werent paying attention till yesterday but as with last night's run this one moved in the right direction comparatively. run the panels together and you'll see your commentary is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 DCA gets .13" vs. .06" 0Z run Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 i know you are hoping very strongly for a miss since you werent paying attention till yesterday but as with last night's run this one moved in the right direction comparatively. run the panels together and you'll see your commentary is wrong. It is hilarious that you think I am hoping for a miss...the euro run sucks and has never been a snowstorm for us....the 12z run is extremely similar to last nights run...barely any discernible difference...if you want to hang your hat on the NAM feel free....I am very bearish and justifiably so...but the fact that you think I am rooting against snow is ludicrous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hey guys....this is Winter Storm "Helen". TWC. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 everyone has their biases but this is the best threat for the lowlands all season by far. not sure why we have to be mean to people who are tracking it or agreeing with nws etc. Thanks Midlo...feel free to make more commentary from RVA on our snow threat up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Watch does not mean it will happen but the warning means its going on. That is not what a winter storm warning means. It CAN mean that but a warning can also mean within 12-24 hours in terms of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That is not what a winter storm warning means. It CAN mean that but a warning can also mean within 12-24 hours in terms of winter weather. Watch = Potential Warning = Imminent Edit: I like the old "Traveler's Advisory" and "Heavy Snow Warning" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It is hilarious that you think I am hoping for a miss...the euro run sucks and has never been a snowstorm for us....the 12z run is extremely similar to last nights run...barely any discernible difference...if you want to hang your hat on the NAM feel free....I am very bearish and justifiably so...but the fact that you think I am rooting against snow is ludicrouswhere did i say i was hanging my hat on the nam? your tone makes it pretty obvious where you stand. you give others about wrongly stating what a model shows so i thought you cared about accuracy. yeah.. verbatim it's pretty lame. but a) who knows if it's right and b ) this is a model thread so might as well share the actual changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 where did i say i was hanging my hat on the nam? your tone makes it pretty obvious where you stand. you give others about wrongly stating what a model shows so i thought you cared about accuracy. yeah.. verbatim it's pretty lame. but a) who knows if it's right and b ) this is a model thread so might as well share the actual changes. If you think I dont want snow and as much as possible you are an idiot...the euro run which was predictable bummed me out....there is barely any discernible difference between last nights run and todays...I wont ever be sucked in by the NAM on any storm ever...it is an absolute joke of a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 These were my 11am thoughts on my FB page for DC proper and immediate burbs...I wouldnt change a thing yet 20% chance of a complete whiff. 25% chance of just flurries or some light rain/snow mix that may accumulate a little on grass and cartops. 30% chance of a 1-2" snowfall that has trouble accumulating very well until after dark when it may accumulate well on all surfaces. 25% chance of a 2-5" event with a more significant impact on rush hour, likely becoming heavy in the evening....I'll update later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If you think I dont want snow and as much as possible you are an idiot...the euro run which was predictable bummed me out....there is barely any discernible difference between last nights run and todays...I wont ever be sucked in by the NAM on any storm ever...it is an absolute joke of a model The GFS also shows over .5 qpf into DC...... what about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well, I like 3-6 for my region-- 6-10 in the MTS. Up to 8 in favored spots east of Blue Ridge, up to 12 favored WEST of Blue Ridge. That band HAS To form to my north and drop south or else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why is there such a fuss about the euro? It's the driest outlier. It can be right or the nam or the gfs or the srefs or even the canadians. I know I'm not just going to toss everything for the driest outlier. This is a compact and relatively potent system. It was off the table for days and days because the stone wall of confluence to the N. Now the confluence isn't as awful and the storm is much more organized and stronger. 50-100 miles in any direction is well withing a fair margin for any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The GFS also shows over .5 qpf into DC...... what about it? 10 miles north of DC had half the QPF...that is way to close for comfort with the other skilled model showing a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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