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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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hundreds of an inch of QPF is inconsequential...the point is it held steady as a whiff...I think places like Rockville and Columbia get barely any liquid if any....since we are on the fringe those 50 miles are critical and it is not just a matter of a precip shield...the euro is less amped, less potent, further south and east so the output actually makes sense...it isnt a  matter of an identical storm just having resolution problems on the edges

 

Stop rooting against my snow!  ;)

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well...I got defensive when Ian suggested repeatedly that I was rooting against snow because I didnt like the storm yesterday even though I have essentially the same call as him....simply because I was being objective about what the euro showed

But you weren't entirely objective. The changes are small but it has continually improved at 500 if not much at the sfc. I can remember a number of times the Euro was wrong on precip coverage.

I don't have a call because I'm not smart enough to figured out the gradient at this time. But i stil like the potential more than most of our storms.

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Thats why I did probabilities....my issues with the euro were not just the precip shield but that the precip shield is supported by the synoptic features which are considerably less bullish than the NAM...

My main point in all of this is that things still look better than even last night overall. I know the NAM sucks many times but I don't totally throw it out at least regarding some ideas like banding etc. whether it is right on location is another matter.

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Wow. There is some serious "Weenie Of The Year" comments going on in this thread. Most of us are going to see some snow. If anybody is in a bad spot it's me and Winterwx and we will still see some.

Everyone is both excited and frustrated. Maybe we all end up winning

It certainly appears to be a power play going on. The vortex from the north and the se ridge both look stout.

I'm riding (hoping) for the continued trend of the week. Both waves so far have been far NW of where the precip was modeled.

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Man, nerves are coil springs in here today. I think it's important and relevant to remember that less than 24 hours ago and many days beyond that this threat didn't exist. The potential was always there because any 5h track like this should raise an eyebrow but other factors in play pretty much shut down our chances. 

 

But it has changed. Confluence backed off just enough and the system is approaching much stronger dynamically than any runs in the last week. It's really up in the air how much precip dc-bwi gets attm. No one model solution should be held as gold over another one. 

 

If anything, taking the average of the gfs, nam, euro, and srefs probably gets you a pretty decent forecast. But bust potential exists on both sides on the northern edge. It always does. 

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yeah...I am more bullish than the euro IMBY....it is just these minor differences are so crucial..and if this thing doesnt get juiced quickly we can waste half our potentially limited QPF on 36 and non accumulating snow or mix

I'd be tempted to go 50/50 on nothing still but that would be considerably more bearish than all guidance combined. If 18z bails I'd be warming up for the punt again. I guess I might still see more all or nothing where if we get snow we get like 4"

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I'd be tempted to go 50/50 on nothing still but that would be considerably more bearish than all guidance combined. If 18z bails I'd be warming up for the punt again. I guess I might still see more all or nothing where if we get snow we get like 4"

Pretty good call since we have 0" 30 miles to our north and 6+" 30 miles to our south

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Good for you......... I feel like this storm needs a subthread for C.Va folks

  

i would suggest adding something to the disco if you want to keep posting

 

 

Chill my brotha

 

Why can we never ever just have a nice area wide good ol' snowstorm where everyone is happy

 

CWG hates snow and the idea of fun

 

 

Negative nancy

 

What sucks is seeing over an inch of qpf 30 miles away

 

Ruh roh

 

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