eurojosh Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 UK is wet for DC... CMC fringes. Pick your commonwealth model.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Folks have to understand that being under a Watch in no way affects what you're going to see, just the same as not being under one doesn't mean you can't get warning criteria snow (myself Jan 30 2010 and many others). They are just more guidance to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 UK is wet for DC... CMC fringes. Pick your commonwealth model.... UK has absolutely nothing for DC (barring a few tenths maybe of snow, not liquid) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 *warning criteria pic* And also within 48 hours - we are well within that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 So 0 to8 looking like a good call? i usually just call for "something" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yep, and that storm missed Richmond. We've been missed every which way you can count. Incorrect. 3-4" of snow metro-wide. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wx_events/Snow/feb192012/snowmap.shtml Starting to get excited for potential down this way tomorrow night. DT is going with 3-6" for RIC proper which is slightly surprising considering his readily apparent snow bias. Looks similar to March 09, which gave me 9-10" (won't be as powerful, though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I have read about multiple references to late January 2010, but is this upcoming storm really that similar to Snowmageddon or were the references meant for commuteageddon 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I have read about multiple references to late January 2010, but is this upcoming storm really that similar to Snowmageddon or were the references meant for commuteageddon 2011? January 2010 was not Snowmageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the general public only hears 5" and big storm...It sucks that 5" needs to be part of the wording.,..sometimes the government are goofballs..I think they should have waited until this afternoon, evening, but I am sure there is some rule 767A, Statute 16 that makes them issue the watch earlieryeah, i guess so. tho i see 'possible' too. biggest euro run ever soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 LWX point and click looks fun. Thursday Snow likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Edit- even better for fairfax county: Thursday Snow, mainly after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 38. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow, mainly before 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 29. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS and NAM were earlier to catch the jump north in today's storm sure, I want the Euro to be on board but Euro is not as far ahead of the NAM/GFS combo as it used to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Would've liked to have the UKMET north, but south of DC completely. It verifies well at h5, always jump around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Don't we go through the lwx micro analysis every time there is an advisory or greater event? Considering we have a relatively amped up ull low with decent dynamics, surface reflection, and pretty high qpf awfully close to town I don't fault them at all. It's just a watch. Lets prepare people instead of having trees fall on cars with a surprise gridlock. I think they are just hedging with caution and the fact that these setups can hit pretty good at times. Are they being agressive? Yes, but I would prefer that at this range than down playing and then having to catch up AFTER everybody is at work and has to drive home. jmho here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 yeah, i guess so. tho i see 'possible' too. biggest euro run ever soon. I only care about d9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Uh... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1228 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013[snip].SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THU AND THU NGT FORCENTRAL VA...PORTIONS OF NRN VA...DC...CENTRAL AND SRN MD ANDPENDLETON COUNTY IN WV.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OFTHE LOW...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN MODELSINDICATED AT THIS TIME YDA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS ALL THEINGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER /E.G. -EPV ABOVE STRONG FRONTOGENESISAND OMEGA MAXIMIZED IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE/ FOR MESOSCALEBANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-LVL LOW. THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND MOST09Z SREF MEMBERS SHOW THIS BAND SETTING UP IN CENTRAL VA AND SRNMD FROM MIDDAY TO ERY EVE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2+ INCHES PER HRWOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND...WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTTHE EVE RUSH-HOUR COMMUTE. ANY RA/SN MIX AT THE ONSET WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ONCE THE BAND DEVELOPS AND PRECIP INTENSITYINCREASES. SRN MD MAY EXPERIENCE THE MOST MIXING IN THE MRNG WITHSFC TEMPS NEAR 40F AT THE ONSET.CONFIDENCE IN FCST AMNTS DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER NWDTOWARD THE DC METRO AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP PRECIP GRADIENTTO THE NORTH OF THE BAND. THE NRN MOST ZONES IN THE WATCHREPRESENT A BUFFER ZONE IN CASE THE FARTHER NWD TREND CONTINUES...WHICH WOULD PLACE THESE AREAS IN A THREAT FOR HVY SNOW. PLEASECONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR FCST UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm gonna make a bold call, this is a likely to the south, DC maybe gets in on a couple of inches. The WV loop is digging the shortwave a bit more than I want, and the confluence push looks more prevalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Uh... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1228 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013[snip].SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THU AND THU NGT FORCENTRAL VA...PORTIONS OF NRN VA...DC...CENTRAL AND SRN MD ANDPENDLETON COUNTY IN WV.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OFTHE LOW...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN MODELSINDICATED AT THIS TIME YDA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS ALL THEINGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER /E.G. -EPV ABOVE STRONG FRONTOGENESISAND OMEGA MAXIMIZED IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE/ FOR MESOSCALEBANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-LVL LOW. THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND MOST09Z SREF MEMBERS SHOW THIS BAND SETTING UP IN CENTRAL VA AND SRNMD FROM MIDDAY TO ERY EVE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2+ INCHES PER HRWOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND...WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTTHE EVE RUSH-HOUR COMMUTE. ANY RA/SN MIX AT THE ONSET WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ONCE THE BAND DEVELOPS AND PRECIP INTENSITYINCREASES. SRN MD MAY EXPERIENCE THE MOST MIXING IN THE MRNG WITHSFC TEMPS NEAR 40F AT THE ONSET.CONFIDENCE IN FCST AMNTS DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER NWDTOWARD THE DC METRO AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP PRECIP GRADIENTTO THE NORTH OF THE BAND. THE NRN MOST ZONES IN THE WATCHREPRESENT A BUFFER ZONE IN CASE THE FARTHER NWD TREND CONTINUES...WHICH WOULD PLACE THESE AREAS IN A THREAT FOR HVY SNOW. PLEASECONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR FCST UPDATES. basically explains why dc is in the watch right now, which is understandable. as others have said, it's just a watch, not warning. maybe they should make it clearer to the general public that watch does not mean watching for something that's imminent. it means watching for something that's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 January 2010 was not Snowmageddon. Nor was it Computawhatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 basically explains why dc is in the watch right now, which is understandable. as others have said, it's just a watch, not warning. maybe they should make it clearer to the general public that watch does not mean watching for something that's imminent. it means watching for something that's possible. I meant more the 2"+ snow band part of the AFD, sorry. I couldn't bold that portion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Watch does not mean it will happen but the warning means its going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Euro is not where we wanted it to be. at least this will be quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 nice euro coming in much colder for ric hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 at least this will be quicklooks like it's going to be better again dopes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 nice euro coming in much colder for ric hr 30 that usually means bad news up here congrats and enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looks like it's going to be better again dopes I'll be dope for 3-5" of snow any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I mean its north again yes, but not that good. Euro maybe generally trends slowly until the event, but I'd want a bigger step Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I mean its north again yes, but not that good. Euro maybe generally trends slowly until the event, but I'd want a bigger step Ian. it's not much better but it is a bit better qpf wise around dc. two more runs of that might work. i'd like more too but i think we assume too much about skill on the edge anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 what trend?...we are 30 hours from the event...It is either going to get it right or bust...It is usually right...the American models will back off at 18z and we will look foolish and talk about how awful the NAM is only to suck its d-ick again next storm Even if 18z went back south it'd be hard to, I'd rather wait until 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it's not much better but it is a bit better qpf wise around dc. two more runs of that might work. i'd like more too but i think we assume too much about skill on the edge anyway. Very sensible post. I've seen the back edge end up broader inside of 12 hours. Heck, it's happened numerous times while nowcasting. We can easily get cut off too but saying the euro has it nailed is crazy talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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