TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 They have little more guidance or experience than we do. This doesnt mean a whole lot. I'd not rely on Sterling very much. I'd use CWG as the best guide. LWX releasing a product or someone issuing a bullish map makes it NO more likely that we get snow In this case, nice post Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 They have little more guidance or experience than we do. This doesnt mean a whole lot. I'd not rely on Sterling very much. I'd use CWG as the best guide. LWX releasing a product or someone issuing a bullish map makes it NO more likely that we get snowit's totally warranted imo. the signal is there for a decent event if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I might be crazy, but I really am not worried about that sharp cutoff around DC. I feel very confident we'll be getting reports of heavy snow from Leesburg and Manchester, as usual. A band will park over those areas. Crazy. But hope you are right, because if it plays out like currently modeled...this one hurts bad for Balt and north residents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I feel this wave of energy propagating north from DC. LWX snowfall map from the pre-watch update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Its a good thing we have a storm to track becaucse the 12z GFS long range is atrocious. Hope Zwyts enjoys tracking bad tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The bands on 12/26/10 were awesome Dead on point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I do if it is cold its not cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Go big or go home Funny thing is, I'll be here for this one right before I head off to Vegas. Perfect timing, although I'll be on the road to BWI Thursday night to spend the night before the flight at 5am Friday. Getting up there should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looks damn close to march 2 2009 4" of slop then some upper level loving with 4" of fluff March 09 030200.png gfs hr. 36 jan 13.gif Exactly the storm I'm afraid of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Man LWX got some big ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Funny thing is, I'll be here for this one right before I head off to Vegas. Perfect timing, although I'll be on the road to BWI Thursday night to spend the night before the flight at 5am Friday. Getting up there should be fun. Apparently the models say it will be sunny and dry just outside DC where heavy snow will be coming down, so you should be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Man LWX got some big ones This is usually when they bust horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Man LWX got some big ones Throwin out 3-5 in their updates zones too already... I guess LWX wants no part of being behind again (re: Commutageddon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Man LWX got some big ones Bullish as I've ever seen them. It's like they took the NAMS precip shield extent and extrapolated out the heavy totals on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ouch, CWG haters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I like the reference to the 20 mile per hour wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ouch, CWG haters.fire in the hole http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/winter-storm-watch-for-dc-area-thursday-and-thursday-night/2013/01/16/dec13f28-5ffa-11e2-b05a-605528f6b712_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1123 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013 DCZ001-MDZ009-010-013-014-016>018-VAZ042-050>057-501-502-170030- /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0001.130117T1400Z-130118T0700Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA... ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...CULPEPER... MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH... FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON 1123 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF WASHINGTON DC THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ First time I read this I had to read it again and check the date to make sure people weren't referencing some other storm from years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Congrats, DC! For now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Of course CWG could be right to disagree, but we want them to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I am in Philippines for this one, but hoping everyone gets smoked with snow+. We are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 CWG hates snow and the idea of fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ouch... Way to kill the excitement for people. Good points though. fire in the hole http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/winter-storm-watch-for-dc-area-thursday-and-thursday-night/2013/01/16/dec13f28-5ffa-11e2-b05a-605528f6b712_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Of course CWG could be right to disagree, but we want them to be wrong. i hate to disagree with jason but the nws mission is not the same as cwg. if there is potential that's what a watch is for. we could end up with no snow and still require a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 DT It would not surprise me if somebody in western and SOUTH PIEDMONT of Virginia saw snow thunder Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 lol...there is one model showing warning criteria snow...a model with a horrible track record, a wet/cold bias and the worst QPF verification scores at this range.... I think I'm in between you (CWG) and Sterling. I don't think we get more than 4"...and that's pushing it. I think 2 to 4 seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think CWG is perhaps a bit low. 2-4 seems reasonable for areas that get into the good bands. Tho I guess CWG's focus is DC.Are we going to see the CWG page start to say fortunately there won't be much snow? - Or house about apologizing if there's more snow than they are forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WVEC's internal RPM model. http://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=10151355150643630&set=a.68546253629.68831.54711713629&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 CWG checking in with the made-up probabilities they pulled out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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