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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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Come on.. That was only for clients

Wub

I don't know why anyone would be taking precise precip cutoff literally with a single model 36 hours out unless this is your 1st time following models.

Yes, it's my first time following the models :P

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Meh. Most years we'd love our spot 24 hours out. But, I wish I had some stats on 'living on the edge' this way (not like gymengineer's thread). I was about 60/40 snow v cloudy but would have liked to see the GFS bump a bit more N.

Been a while since there's been a storm with 'such' a drastic cutoff. Talking 30 miles between nothing and an inch QPF. In the end don't imagine it'll be quite that drastic. 

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Meh. Most years we'd love our spot 24 hours out. But, I wish I had some stats on 'living on the edge' this way (not like gymengineer's thread). I was about 60/40 snow v cloudy but would have liked to see the GFS bump a bit more N.

I mean in a number of instances it's been north, I don't really remember many where its been south. Considering which features are key in this instance, I'd go north over south. 

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What a nightmare for LWX, especially with the timing.

The 500 vort is still a hair south of my personal confidence zone... but it's close enough. This area is always a giant pain.. putting us right on the edge makes it so much less fun to try to figure out. But, whatever.. way better than hoping we don't change over for an extra 30 minutes on a cutter.
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Been a while since there's been a storm with 'such' a drastic cutoff. Talking 30 miles between nothing and an inch QPF. In the end don't imagine it'll be quite that drastic. 

I would probably lean to a broader gradient on the cutoff given the way it's supposed to come together.. but there is usually a sharp fall somewhere. i think we just don't always notice it when it's n/nw of us etc.
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What Va snowstorm missed DC last year? Here in Richmond we got nada last year, one wet snow one evening and that's it. Trust me, when it comes to snow-droughts, we are second to no one!

 

I'm pretty sure that we pulled off about 12-13 inches of snow last year in 2 storms (Feb 22 and March 5), while DCA was essentially getting shut out.  Both of those storms had a last minute north trend on the NAM of about 25-40 miles if I recall.  I thought RIC saw at least a 3 incher last year during one of those storms?

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What Va snowstorm missed DC last year? Here in Richmond we got nada last year, one wet snow one evening and that's it. Trust me, when it comes to snow-droughts, we are second to no one!

There was a storm last February (?)...it was during one of the few brief cold shots...stayed surpressed and hit CHO and EZF pretty hard if I recall (WSW criteria).  I think flurries made it to a DC-Annapolis line and that was about it.  Someone else mentioned it earlier in this thread.  Got some parts of central VA up to near climo snowfall for last winter. 

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Correct and I don't remember exactly who (maybe matt??) but someone on this board chased that storm and posted pics.

There was a storm last February (?)...it was during one of the few brief cold shots...stayed surpressed and hit CHO and EZF pretty hard if I recall (WSW criteria).  I think flurries made it to a DC-Annapolis line and that was about it.  Someone else mentioned it earlier in this thread.  Got some parts of central VA up to near climo snowfall for last winter. 

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http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32748-21912-obs-take-what-you-can-get

 

Correct and I don't remember exactly who (maybe matt??) but someone on this board chased that storm and posted pics.

 

 

Yep, and that storm missed Richmond. We've been missed every which way you can count.

Deform band set up shop about 20 miles north of downtown, maybe 15 miles north of me... I got about 1.5-2" out of it, so it wasn't a total bust for me.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1123 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

DCZ001-MDZ009-010-013-014-016>018-VAZ042-050>057-501-502-170030-

/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0001.130117T1400Z-130118T0700Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-PRINCE GEORGES-

ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...

ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...

MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...

FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON

1123 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY

MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH

OF WASHINGTON DC THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW

LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END THURSDAY

NIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND

EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE

EVENING RUSH HOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR

THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

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