Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 1:32 AM, wxmeddler said: Magically, the SREF just came out... Drier overall in NC too-- maybe the ULL opens up/ less strong on a few members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 1:33 AM, yoda said: SREFs shifted south a lil... 0.5 line goes to EZF or so... 0.25 reaches just north of DCA What happened to the 2-2.25 it was showing for western nc earlier? This map doesn't show over an inch for anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 1:17 AM, stormtracker said: Coastalwx in the house. **** done got real yall. 0z suite will be telling. Well this may be more for VA. :goesandhidesincorner: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Maybe it wasn't real? Being that they said it was delayed until 10pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 1:40 AM, MillzPirate said: What happened to the 2-2.25 it was showing for western nc earlier? This map doesn't show over an inch for anyone? that was 24 hr this is 12 tho not sure if thats the diff. the timestamp also says the 17th.. toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We should just toss the SREFs due to "technical issues." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 1:02 AM, Fozz said: Baltimore won't be getting much, most likely a dusting, if that. You'd have to go further south, and well south of DC for anything significant. Thanks--I saw the watch and wasn't sure what to expect. Hope you all cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 1:40 AM, MillzPirate said: What happened to the 2-2.25 it was showing for western nc earlier? This map doesn't show over an inch for anyone? His map was a 12hr one.. I was using a 24 hr one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 1:42 AM, PhineasC said: We should just toss the SREFs due to "technical issues." at least till the nam whiffs again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 That SREF output is actually pretty encouraging after what the 18Z NAM showed. Recall, the new SREF is loaded with WRF members; the fact that the 21Z run did not follow suit with the 18Z NAM in going noticably drier for the DC area is encouraging. Still want to see more QPF farther north with the 00Z higher res runs though...at least one or two of them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 1:40 AM, MillzPirate said: What happened to the 2-2.25 it was showing for western nc earlier? This map doesn't show over an inch for anyone? This is the 24 totals and the time backed up a bit, it's backed down a tad but still a 2.5" bullseye over far W-NC http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/sref/21/sref_namer_036_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 SREF should compress the precip shield as you get closer to an event. The spread increases with time. It didn't come north though, which is the main thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpikesnowlover Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 1:01 AM, Midlo Snow Maker said: yea that seems to be flying around face book right now lol. welcome aboard hey neighbor ive been on here since nov just havnt posted a whole lot. Im pretty close to you, should be interesting to see who gets more out of this one. I might be just a little east n east of ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 SREFs drop 50% qpf from 15z. I'd say that's a horrible trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well, so far, compared to 18z, NAM looks a little better with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 1:57 AM, stormtracker said: Well, so far, compared to 18z, NAM looks a little better with the precip shield. yeah.. tho not sure how it will be 'good'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 0z NAM threading the needle between the 12 and 18z run of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 1:57 AM, stormtracker said: Well, so far, compared to 18z, NAM looks a little better with the precip shield. 5H vort is better too, but how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 1:58 AM, Ian said: yeah.. tho not sure how it will be 'good'. I believe it'll translate to a slightly farther north precip shield for us. Nothing really jumps out so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 1:58 AM, Ian said: yeah.. tho not sure how it will be 'good'. rough hour for snow chances in DC. Starting to look like we might have trouble sneaking by the 2" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 QPF actually reaches DCA by hr 21... so its not a complete whiff... fringe looks likely but what kind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 one good thing is it doesnt really even get here till near sundown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah, up to 21 hr now, it's definitely not going to be a total whiff this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpikesnowlover Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The big ? is when and if RIC will change over to SN. Ive seen this trend all to often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 gotta love the sim radar ... could be uglier around the dc area tomorrow than today .. hallucinations for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 ain't gunna be pretty at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 2:03 AM, Ian said: gotta love the sim radar ... could be uglier around the dc area tomorrow than today .. hallucinations for all Yeah, was just about to post that. If the radar looked like that, it would be a weenie killer for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ouch, qpf cutoff just gets to Rt. 50, no more. RIC is gonna get whacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 On 1/17/2013 at 2:00 AM, stormtracker said: Yeah, up to 21 hr now, it's definitely not going to be a total whiff this run. As long as the 0Z GFS has a similar variance to the NAM as with the 18Z suite, I think we're looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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