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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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Well, I think it's a "feel good" analog when folks up here in the DC area feel a shaft coming. I will be anxious to see what the 00Z runs show for 21Z-03Z tomorrow evening. It may end up being a small window of opportunity up here, but nevertheless one where 1-3" in the DC metro is still within a 50th percentile (where 10th/20th percentile is nothing and 80-90th is closer to 6+").

Yeah that was a pretty perfect storm of this type given the cold etc. this 500 track isn't that different tho. I guess even if we get the shaft it's good to see the southern stream perform a bit.

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Hey guys, brand new here and reading through the pages this forum sounds like fun and you all have really good info and analysis.  Question and smack me if it has been answered but local mets in richmond discussing their RPM model and saying it is showing no snow for RIC and very little south of here. Anyone know why?  I can't find that model anywhere.

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Greetings from the New England thread; first time outside the NE forum--I hope you get hit hard by the storm.  Having just enjoyed 5" today, I'm already envious of you folks getting some tomorrow.

 

I'm hoping you can give me your best synopsis of the BWI area with respect to start/end time and how much snow.  I'm driving down to Baltimore tomorrow night.   Thanks for providing your take on it--and enjoy it!

 

mike

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Hey guys, brand new here and reading through the pages this forum sounds like fun and you all have really good info and analysis.  Question and smack me if it has been answered but local mets in richmond discussing their RPM model and saying it is showing no snow for RIC and very little south of here. Anyone know why?  I can't find that model anywhere.

 

The RPM model is always used by news stations and I'd take what that model says with a grain (perhaps a brick) of salt. 

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Hey guys, brand new here and reading through the pages this forum sounds like fun and you all have really good info and analysis.  Question and smack me if it has been answered but local mets in richmond discussing their RPM model and saying it is showing no snow for RIC and very little south of here. Anyone know why?  I can't find that model anywhere.

Don't take my word on it, but assuming we do well up north, I think that Richmond is in a pretty good spot.

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Hey guys, brand new here and reading through the pages this forum sounds like fun and you all have really good info and analysis.  Question and smack me if it has been answered but local mets in richmond discussing their RPM model and saying it is showing no snow for RIC and very little south of here. Anyone know why?  I can't find that model anywhere.

 

Curious which local met is saying no snow for RIC? I need to remember to never watch that station for weather. We should get at least 4" maybe 6"+ here in Richmond.

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Hey guys, brand new here and reading through the pages this forum sounds like fun and you all have really good info and analysis.  Question and smack me if it has been answered but local mets in richmond discussing their RPM model and saying it is showing no snow for RIC and very little south of here. Anyone know why?  I can't find that model anywhere.

yea that seems to be flying around face book right now lol.  welcome aboard

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Greetings from the New England thread; first time outside the NE forum--I hope you get hit hard by the storm.  Having just enjoyed 5" today, I'm already envious of you folks getting some tomorrow.

 

I'm hoping you can give me your best synopsis of the BWI area with respect to start/end time and how much snow.  I'm driving down to Baltimore tomorrow night.   Thanks for providing your take on it--and enjoy it!

 

mike

 

Baltimore won't be getting much, most likely a dusting, if that. You'd have to go further south, and well south of DC for anything significant.

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not to back pat especially since it's probably not the same overall, but mentioned jan 30 when this first showed up before we went back to ignoring it

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38526-january-2013-mid-long-range-disco-thread/?p=1990259

Not to back pat but .....

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38526-january-2013-mid-long-range-disco-thread/page-15?

:)

To be honest, the week has worked out differently than they were modeling, but they did have the possibility.

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Hey guys, brand new here and reading through the pages this forum sounds like fun and you all have really good info and analysis. Question and smack me if it has been answered but local mets in richmond discussing their RPM model and saying it is showing no snow for RIC and very little south of here. Anyone know why? I can't find that model anywhere.

The RPM model is run by a private company called WSI (Weather Services International), because it's private only those networks who subscribe to their service can view it. Weather Underground used to have it on their wundermap, but I can't find it anymore. I think Richmond is safe for some snow though... :)

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Hoping to make a "schools closed" decision for Albemarle County (CHO) tonight.  This is a "forecast call" and I don't see any possiblilty of safely running 150 school buses for 3 hours during the afternoon.

Josh, flash freeze is a real possibility.  When it hits, it will hit hard.  Remember December 19, 2009 with the extremely heavy snow at the outset?  I'd play it safe, otherwise the parents will go apesh*t like they did for the hurricane.

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Josh, flash freeze is a real possibility. When it hits, it will hit hard. Remember December 19, 2009 with the extremely heavy snow at the outset? I'd play it safe, otherwise the parents will go apesh*t like they did for the hurricane.

Don't know about Charlottesville, but Dec 19 was much colder before and during that storm than this one will be in my area. I think the snow started here with a temp of about 26 degrees, IIRC.

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True but I can also remember cases when the the gradient was really tight and they got 8 inches in Prince Frederick which is in the middle of my county and I got zilch living in the northern end of the county and I was supposed to get several inches.  Tight gradients can screw you lots of ways.  You can get under the deformation zone and a band that goes stationary and not very far way someone gets nothing.  That's the problem.  The fact that the higher resolution models seem to be holding the precip farther south is a concern at least to me. 

Of course! There is no doubt there will be a sharp cutoff as the ageo/secondary cuts off lift. But I was just saying if you get into the band/deform, these situations can easily bust with higher accumulations. This could end up being a warmer/weaker version of 1/30/10.

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Thanks everyone.  NBC12 is the one that is stating the RPM model is saying no snow.  It is mentioned on one of their mets facebook pages.  Granted they did not change their forecast but since I can't find the model I was interested where it was coming from and how accurate it was.  Glad to be here and hope to learn from you all.  I think 4" is a good number also, but most of that will be on grassy areas.

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Josh, flash freeze is a real possibility.  When it hits, it will hit hard.  Remember December 19, 2009 with the extremely heavy snow at the outset?  I'd play it safe, otherwise the parents will go apesh*t like they did for the hurricane.

My recommendation is on the table....now we need for others to "get to yes."  I was royally POd the last time "we" decided to go to school under an active Winter Storm Warning (2011).  It was a hair-raising operation when we finally called it a day (early dismissal) after the changeover to snow.

 

High school students are scheduled for exams tomorrow - think they will be able to concentrate with a snowstorm bearing down? 

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Thanks everyone.  NBC12 is the one that is stating the RPM model is saying no snow.  It is mentioned on one of their mets facebook pages.  Granted they did not change their forecast but since I can't find the model I was interested where it was coming from and how accurate it was.  Glad to be here and hope to learn from you all.  I think 4" is a good number also, but most of that will be on grassy areas.

RPM and NAM share similar physics, if I recall correctly. Thus, similar 18z outcomes for our area.
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