nflwxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 9:40 PM, zwyts said: maybe 0.5" for DCA? About that. Looks similar to 12z across the board in terms of precip. Might be a bit colder aloft. Maybe a bit lower totals down by me on the SW side of LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 A foot for RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 30hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looks a little bit drier overall dc south but the .50" line is basically the same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 9:20 PM, SnowGoose69 said: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/regions18z.html On 1/16/2013 at 9:21 PM, wxmeddler said: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html Thank you. NMM is a debacle like the 18z NAM. ARW gets some precip up into DC proper, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 9:39 PM, zwyts said: GFS looks pretty good good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS looks sick for the RNK CWA-- we've been blasted at 30 and have VV"s over use still, the slide SE, but its 6-10 region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 9:39 PM, zwyts said: GFS looks pretty good I still think the probability of 3 inches or less is probalby around 90% or so and about equally dividing between little or no accumulation and 1-3 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 9:45 PM, usedtobe said: I still think the probability of 3 inches or less is probalby around 90% or so and about equally dividing between little or no accumulation and 1-3 inch. you mean for dc right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 9:44 PM, Huffwx said: GFS looks sick for the RNK CWA-- we've been blasted at 30 and have VV"s over use still, the slide SE, but its 6-10 region wide.yea that is sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 huge hit for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 9:43 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: good lord That looks very good for you Midlo! I think any bit of elevation would help, no doubt. Certainly the higher terrain farther W and especially SW will reap with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Did anyone else notice temps today busted low by about 6-8 degrees? EDIT - I was looking a little south with forecasts in the upper 40s. Looks like DC busted low by only a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 9:46 PM, wasnow215 said: you mean for dc right? Yes for inside the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If you want to talk about model consistency, let's talk about the GFS. It looks locked on to it's 12z solution. Though that gradient up in the north is going to shaft someone. I like 5-8 inches here in CHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 CHO is more like 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 9:47 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: yea that is sick Grats on your 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 OK so I'll say it first. Still time for one more jog north to get DC in the "blue"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There is the model output and what the storm actually does. For someone on the northern fringe...any slight shift is huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 9:37 PM, wxmeddler said: 18z GFS with the cliff hangar.. It's interesting. over past 3 months the Euro has been the QPf king in terms of verification at 24 and 48 hrs. HPC does not run it for 36 hours but I suspect it would win there too. The GFS has been second at the .25 and .50 inch thresholds. The SREF mean and NAM have generally been lower. The euro has been resolution than the GFS which may be of benefit in this case but sometimes spreading out precip helps in terms of verification of ETS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 what was really nice about the GFS run was the 5H vort was even stronger than 12Z, albeit a hair south so things basically evened out for DCA/BWI still up in the air for BWI and I sure would love to see the 0Z models jog north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 0z NAM will be... useless. I'm still holding to 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Based on the GFS clown map, DC is in the 3-4" range with areas just off to the east towards in the bay in the 4-5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'll have to live vicariously through others. Best of luck to the southerners... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 so i guess the wheelhouse for the NAM is truly 2 hours after the event starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 10:01 PM, Ji said: so i guess the wheelhouse for the NAM is truly 2 hours after the event starts In this case, the NAM is the lead car with the GFS drafting (for our Southern VA posters) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Let's see what the 21Z SREF does. Not as much interested in actual QPF, but the QPF trends. IF the SREF still holds on to something similar to the 15Z version...despite what the NAM did at 18Z...that would be encouraging.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No earth shattering changes on the 18z RGEM, 18Z NAM could have been a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 10:11 PM, zwyts said: sorry about my meltdown earlier...anyway....maybe the GFS is too far north but not by much? It was understandable.... don't worry about it. I would say the GFS has the right idea probably right where its at now.. maybe there will be some slight movement but I think its probably right where it will likely end up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 10:19 PM, SnowGoose69 said: No earth shattering changes on the 18z RGEM, 18Z NAM could have been a blip.NAM is king of the blip I still kinda like it tho .. good for svr day of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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