Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 hundreds of an inch of QPF is inconsequential...the point is it held steady as a whiff...I think places like Rockville and Columbia get barely any liquid if any....since we are on the fringe those 50 miles are critical and it is not just a matter of a precip shield...the euro is less amped, less potent, further south and east so the output actually makes sense...it isnt a matter of an identical storm just having resolution problems on the edges Stop rooting against my snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 well...I got defensive when Ian suggested repeatedly that I was rooting against snow because I didnt like the storm yesterday even though I have essentially the same call as him....simply because I was being objective about what the euro showedBut you weren't entirely objective. The changes are small but it has continually improved at 500 if not much at the sfc. I can remember a number of times the Euro was wrong on precip coverage. I don't have a call because I'm not smart enough to figured out the gradient at this time. But i stil like the potential more than most of our storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Honestly, I could care less that the Euro didn't hop right on board with everyone else. I'm just glad it didn't go SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 were people really expecting the Euro to go from showing .06 at 0z to .6 at 12z?? No. But you would like to see the .25 contour reach up to BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wes, I think you nailed your CWG write up. It clarified a lot of things that had been posted earlier on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 that isnt what I said...re-read You were saying the 50 miles between the Euro and GFS? If so, my apologies, I misread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 A nice blend of guidance puts at least 3-5" down in this area...obviously more as you move toward the mountains. Huff looks to do well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Euro isn't that good inside of 36hr. I'll stick with the NAM, and the SREFS. Tomorrow morning begins nowcast and the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The drive on 29 south from CHO towards Amherst should be a good one tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SREFs really solid, and interesting to see Euro ens bit wetter than the op. In the end think we probably just miss this in DC, probably 1-3" the way to go. But it's awfully close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thats why I did probabilities....my issues with the euro were not just the precip shield but that the precip shield is supported by the synoptic features which are considerably less bullish than the NAM... My main point in all of this is that things still look better than even last night overall. I know the NAM sucks many times but I don't totally throw it out at least regarding some ideas like banding etc. whether it is right on location is another matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wow. There is some serious "Weenie Of The Year" comments going on in this thread. Most of us are going to see some snow. If anybody is in a bad spot it's me and Winterwx and we will still see some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 don't forget to vote folks http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38833-how-would-you-best-describe-your-relationship-with-snow/page-?mode=show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 seems like we're right on the cusp, so any minor change will make a huge difference either way. it's not like the models are going to be 100% accurate. i kinda like the spot we're in right now. hope we all get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wow. There is some serious "Weenie Of The Year" comments going on in this thread. Most of us are going to see some snow. If anybody is in a bad spot it's me and Winterwx and we will still see some. Everyone is both excited and frustrated. Maybe we all end up winning It certainly appears to be a power play going on. The vortex from the north and the se ridge both look stout. I'm riding (hoping) for the continued trend of the week. Both waves so far have been far NW of where the precip was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 40% of >6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Man, nerves are coil springs in here today. I think it's important and relevant to remember that less than 24 hours ago and many days beyond that this threat didn't exist. The potential was always there because any 5h track like this should raise an eyebrow but other factors in play pretty much shut down our chances. But it has changed. Confluence backed off just enough and the system is approaching much stronger dynamically than any runs in the last week. It's really up in the air how much precip dc-bwi gets attm. No one model solution should be held as gold over another one. If anything, taking the average of the gfs, nam, euro, and srefs probably gets you a pretty decent forecast. But bust potential exists on both sides on the northern edge. It always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I guess now everyone is holding their breath waiting on the SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 yeah...I am more bullish than the euro IMBY....it is just these minor differences are so crucial..and if this thing doesnt get juiced quickly we can waste half our potentially limited QPF on 36 and non accumulating snow or mix I'd be tempted to go 50/50 on nothing still but that would be considerably more bearish than all guidance combined. If 18z bails I'd be warming up for the punt again. I guess I might still see more all or nothing where if we get snow we get like 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'd be tempted to go 50/50 on nothing still but that would be considerably more bearish than all guidance combined. If 18z bails I'd be warming up for the punt again. I guess I might still see more all or nothing where if we get snow we get like 4" Pretty good call since we have 0" 30 miles to our north and 6+" 30 miles to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Can't we all just get along? Rare wSW is like a shot of adrenaline or testosterone. The effects seem to be fading now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 When does the next SREF run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 40% of >6" I was def. impressed with the 60-70% chance of 4< ......and not to mention the chance we have before day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 [http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif I'm not sure why, but I found this post hilarious. All this bickering and then a silent post of the worthless JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 When does the next SREF run? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ This will help as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 10 minutes I think Wonder whose hand is on the trigger, ready to post them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ This will help as well Excellent, thanks yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Good for you......... I feel like this storm needs a subthread for C.Va folks i would suggest adding something to the disco if you want to keep posting Chill my brotha Why can we never ever just have a nice area wide good ol' snowstorm where everyone is happy CWG hates snow and the idea of fun Negative nancy What sucks is seeing over an inch of qpf 30 miles away Ruh roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 i would suggest adding something to the disco if you want to keep posting What the hell is the point of ignore when you can see the puke's post in another post anyway? Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't have great maps, but looks like DCA is about 0.6" and precip makes it to the M/D line hmm...so far no models have trended back south so maybe there is still a slight chance to improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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