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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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Don't know if anyone posted this from the HPC Model Discussion:

 

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY
PREFERENCE:  GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE

THE GUIDANCE SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY HAS TRENDED STRONGER
(INCLUDING THE NAM) AND MORE SEPARATED BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WHICH LED TO A MORE NORTHERLY
SURFACE LOW REMINISCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z NAM SOLUTION (THOUGH
SEVERAL HOURS SLOWER).  THIS TREND EXTENDS TO THE 00Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.  LIKE MOST DAYS, THE 12Z NAM IS THE STRONGEST
OF THE GUIDANCE ALOFT AND MOST NORTHERLY AT THE SURFACE, LYING AT
OR BEYOND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
CONSIDERING MODEL TRENDS, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE 12Z NAM.

THEREFORE, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AS WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL (PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS) WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ITS UPPER LEVEL LOW.  SEE THE
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR MORE
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM'S WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

 

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it is dry, less amped..not a good run for us...maybe a cartopper or light dusting or event rain/snow mix

i know you are hoping very strongly for a miss since you werent paying attention till yesterday but as with last night's run this one moved in the right direction comparatively. run the panels together and you'll see your commentary is wrong.

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It is hilarious that you think I am hoping for a miss...the euro run sucks and has never been a snowstorm for us....the 12z run is extremely similar to last nights run...barely any discernible difference...if you want to hang your hat on the NAM feel free....I am very bearish and justifiably so...but the fact that you think I am rooting against snow is ludicrous

where did i say i was hanging my hat on the nam? your tone makes it pretty obvious where you stand. you give others about wrongly stating what a model shows so i thought you cared about accuracy. yeah.. verbatim it's pretty lame. but a) who knows if it's right and b ) this is a model thread so might as well share the actual changes.
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If you think I dont want snow and as much as possible you are an idiot...the euro run which was predictable bummed me out....there is barely any discernible difference between last nights run and todays...I wont ever be sucked in by the NAM on any storm ever...it is an absolute joke of a model

 

The GFS also shows over .5 qpf into DC...... what about it?

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Why is there such a fuss about the euro? It's the driest outlier. It can be right or the nam or the gfs or the srefs or even the canadians. I know I'm not just going to toss everything for the driest outlier. 

 

This is a compact and relatively potent system. It was off the table for days and days because the stone wall of confluence to the N. Now the confluence isn't as awful and the storm is much more organized and stronger. 50-100 miles in any direction is well withing a fair margin for any model. 

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If you think I dont want snow and as much as possible you are an idiot...the euro run which was predictable bummed me out....there is barely any discernible difference between last nights run and todays...I wont ever be sucked in by the NAM on any storm ever...it is an absolute joke of a model

I agree, last nights euro was horrible for this event and I see very little difference in the new run. We are 24 hours out and quickly running out of time for drastic improvements especially up here. Tomorrow's storm is nothing like the wave we had come through last night that shifted well north at the last minute. Hope I,m wrong but I'm very suspect of this one. There is just not enough support from the other globals.

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what's shown is near the limit of skill wrt where the cutoff will be. we can vacillate with every model and hug the euro like it loves to be hugged all day. not much forecasting there.. but carry on.

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Why is there such a fuss about the euro? It's the driest outlier. It can be right or the nam or the gfs or the srefs or even the canadians. I know I'm not just going to toss everything for the driest outlier. 

 

This is a compact and relatively potent system. It was off the table for days and days because the stone wall of confluence to the N. Now the confluence isn't as awful and the storm is much more organized and stronger. 50-100 miles in any direction is well withing a fair margin for any model. 

 

I do not like the Euro inside of 36 hours, honestly I don't like it inside 60 either...it may show the highest verification scores at 500mb but that could mean its better more often in  a pattern with a 1030mb high overhead, I still go NAM/GFS/RGEM more heavily once inside that range...still would feel pretty good in DC...maybe not as good as RDU or RIC but better than PHL/ILG/DOV/PHL thats for sure

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Ian...I am being justifiably cautious...The euro looked virtually identical to last night..still my prediction had DC with a 55% chance of 1-2"+....If you think I dont want snow because I am being justifiably skeptical, then you are an idiot and deserve to be called out as one...I am entitled to be bearish...If you want to cheerlead in complete contradiction to your usual buzzkill, wet blanket attitude that is your prerogative

if you think im wrongly framing your view why wrongly frame mine? i think we both actually see fairly similar conclusions as most likely.. i was just pointing out the euro has moved slightly better and it could very well be wrong.
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and there's really nothing wrong with pointing that out. It's fact, the euro has slightly improved. It's not like you or anyone else is saying that the euro is going to end up showing a 4-8" storm.

if you think im wrongly framing your view why wrongly frame mine? i think we both actually see fairly similar conclusions as most likely.. i was just pointing out the euro has moved slightly better and it could very well be wrong.

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the least skilled model and one that has f-uc%ed us in the a$$ repeatedly for years, is an outlier...

im not forecasting the nam verbatim but it has support from sref and the gfs at least to a degree. i know playing it low is almost always the best course in dc. im not calling for 10" of snow. im actually more inclined to not comment at all anymore but i thought we were all in this even for the dustings or were supposed to be. things do dip back south or the northern edge is wrongly modeled but history is still generally on the side of at least partially hedging to the north trend within this range.

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I am being objective as possible....I would never root against snow....I already admitted that my punt call will bust if we get anything more than a mixy cartopper....You think I give a sh-it about punting to the extent that I would root against snow is insane....I am being realistically cautious about a storm threat that only legitimately materialized 16 hours ago and which the most bullish model is the one with the least skill and an outlier

You are kind of obsessive today though. There really isn't much different at all between your forecast and what most others probably have in mind right now-- 1-2" from you, 2-4" from others.

We all know the NAM sucks.

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hundreds of an inch of QPF is inconsequential...the point is it held steady as a whiff...I think places like Rockville and Columbia get barely any liquid if any....since we are on the fringe those 50 miles are critical and it is not just a matter of a precip shield...the euro is less amped, less potent, further south and east so the output actually makes sense...it isnt a  matter of an identical storm just having resolution problems on the edges

Rockville is closer to 5 miles from DC than 50 fwiw.  I don't see snowfall being too drastically different between there and DC.

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