usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it's not much better but it is a bit better qpf wise around dc. two more runs of that might work. i'd like more too but i think we assume too much about skill on the edge anyway. Do we actaully get QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Don't know if anyone posted this from the HPC Model Discussion: SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAYTROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAYPREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCETHE GUIDANCE SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY HAS TRENDED STRONGER(INCLUDING THE NAM) AND MORE SEPARATED BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THETROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WHICH LED TO A MORE NORTHERLYSURFACE LOW REMINISCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z NAM SOLUTION (THOUGHSEVERAL HOURS SLOWER). THIS TREND EXTENDS TO THE 00Z GLOBALENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. LIKE MOST DAYS, THE 12Z NAM IS THE STRONGESTOF THE GUIDANCE ALOFT AND MOST NORTHERLY AT THE SURFACE, LYING ATOR BEYOND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.CONSIDERING MODEL TRENDS, IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE 12Z NAM.THEREFORE, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITHTHIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AS WINTER WEATHERPOTENTIAL (PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS) WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THESURFACE LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ITS UPPER LEVEL LOW. SEE THEPROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION (QPFHSD) FOR MOREINFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM'S WINTER WEATHER POTENTIALACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Do we actaully get QPF? about .1" .. it's steadily gone up every run lately but the contours to the south stayed pretty constant from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 fwiw euro snow maps central southern va into nc 4-8" and as far east as williamsburg pockets of 8-12" in sw. western va ezf cho 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 about .1" .. it's steadily gone up every run lately but the contours to the south stayed pretty constant from 0z. Okay, so what I think could happen is it could generally move those contours northward at 0z, getting DC to about .25, as it broadens the edge, that NW band could do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 everyone has their biases but this is the best threat for the lowlands all season by far. not sure why we have to be mean to people who are tracking it or agreeing with nws etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 everyone has their biases but this is the best threat for the lowlands all season by far. not sure why we have to be mean to people who are tracking it or agreeing with nws etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it is dry, less amped..not a good run for us...maybe a cartopper or light dusting or event rain/snow mix i know you are hoping very strongly for a miss since you werent paying attention till yesterday but as with last night's run this one moved in the right direction comparatively. run the panels together and you'll see your commentary is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 DCA gets .13" vs. .06" 0Z run Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Hey guys....this is Winter Storm "Helen". TWC. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Watch does not mean it will happen but the warning means its going on. That is not what a winter storm warning means. It CAN mean that but a warning can also mean within 12-24 hours in terms of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That is not what a winter storm warning means. It CAN mean that but a warning can also mean within 12-24 hours in terms of winter weather. Watch = Potential Warning = Imminent Edit: I like the old "Traveler's Advisory" and "Heavy Snow Warning" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It is hilarious that you think I am hoping for a miss...the euro run sucks and has never been a snowstorm for us....the 12z run is extremely similar to last nights run...barely any discernible difference...if you want to hang your hat on the NAM feel free....I am very bearish and justifiably so...but the fact that you think I am rooting against snow is ludicrouswhere did i say i was hanging my hat on the nam? your tone makes it pretty obvious where you stand. you give others about wrongly stating what a model shows so i thought you cared about accuracy. yeah.. verbatim it's pretty lame. but a) who knows if it's right and b ) this is a model thread so might as well share the actual changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If you think I dont want snow and as much as possible you are an idiot...the euro run which was predictable bummed me out....there is barely any discernible difference between last nights run and todays...I wont ever be sucked in by the NAM on any storm ever...it is an absolute joke of a model The GFS also shows over .5 qpf into DC...... what about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well, I like 3-6 for my region-- 6-10 in the MTS. Up to 8 in favored spots east of Blue Ridge, up to 12 favored WEST of Blue Ridge. That band HAS To form to my north and drop south or else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why is there such a fuss about the euro? It's the driest outlier. It can be right or the nam or the gfs or the srefs or even the canadians. I know I'm not just going to toss everything for the driest outlier. This is a compact and relatively potent system. It was off the table for days and days because the stone wall of confluence to the N. Now the confluence isn't as awful and the storm is much more organized and stronger. 50-100 miles in any direction is well withing a fair margin for any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks Midlo...feel free to make more commentary from RVA on our snow threat up here nothing to do with "YOUR" snow threat from "RVA" i'm just tired of the crying and moaning. this thread has just gone to **** over stupid stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 How does next weeks cold look on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If you think I dont want snow and as much as possible you are an idiot...the euro run which was predictable bummed me out....there is barely any discernible difference between last nights run and todays...I wont ever be sucked in by the NAM on any storm ever...it is an absolute joke of a model I agree, last nights euro was horrible for this event and I see very little difference in the new run. We are 24 hours out and quickly running out of time for drastic improvements especially up here. Tomorrow's storm is nothing like the wave we had come through last night that shifted well north at the last minute. Hope I,m wrong but I'm very suspect of this one. There is just not enough support from the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 what's shown is near the limit of skill wrt where the cutoff will be. we can vacillate with every model and hug the euro like it loves to be hugged all day. not much forecasting there.. but carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why is there such a fuss about the euro? It's the driest outlier. It can be right or the nam or the gfs or the srefs or even the canadians. I know I'm not just going to toss everything for the driest outlier. This is a compact and relatively potent system. It was off the table for days and days because the stone wall of confluence to the N. Now the confluence isn't as awful and the storm is much more organized and stronger. 50-100 miles in any direction is well withing a fair margin for any model. I do not like the Euro inside of 36 hours, honestly I don't like it inside 60 either...it may show the highest verification scores at 500mb but that could mean its better more often in a pattern with a 1030mb high overhead, I still go NAM/GFS/RGEM more heavily once inside that range...still would feel pretty good in DC...maybe not as good as RDU or RIC but better than PHL/ILG/DOV/PHL thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ian...I am being justifiably cautious...The euro looked virtually identical to last night..still my prediction had DC with a 55% chance of 1-2"+....If you think I dont want snow because I am being justifiably skeptical, then you are an idiot and deserve to be called out as one...I am entitled to be bearish...If you want to cheerlead in complete contradiction to your usual buzzkill, wet blanket attitude that is your prerogativeif you think im wrongly framing your view why wrongly frame mine? i think we both actually see fairly similar conclusions as most likely.. i was just pointing out the euro has moved slightly better and it could very well be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 of course you are zen like...you are getting snow you're the one in a WSW not me i think your good for some accums hi res nam throws you a bone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 and there's really nothing wrong with pointing that out. It's fact, the euro has slightly improved. It's not like you or anyone else is saying that the euro is going to end up showing a 4-8" storm. if you think im wrongly framing your view why wrongly frame mine? i think we both actually see fairly similar conclusions as most likely.. i was just pointing out the euro has moved slightly better and it could very well be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the least skilled model and one that has f-uc%ed us in the a$$ repeatedly for years, is an outlier... im not forecasting the nam verbatim but it has support from sref and the gfs at least to a degree. i know playing it low is almost always the best course in dc. im not calling for 10" of snow. im actually more inclined to not comment at all anymore but i thought we were all in this even for the dustings or were supposed to be. things do dip back south or the northern edge is wrongly modeled but history is still generally on the side of at least partially hedging to the north trend within this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 were people really expecting the Euro to go from showing .06 at 0z to .6 at 12z?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I am being objective as possible....I would never root against snow....I already admitted that my punt call will bust if we get anything more than a mixy cartopper....You think I give a sh-it about punting to the extent that I would root against snow is insane....I am being realistically cautious about a storm threat that only legitimately materialized 16 hours ago and which the most bullish model is the one with the least skill and an outlier You are kind of obsessive today though. There really isn't much different at all between your forecast and what most others probably have in mind right now-- 1-2" from you, 2-4" from others. We all know the NAM sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 were people really expecting the Euro to go from showing .06 at 0z to .6 at 12z?? no(at least I wasn't)but a solid .2 for DCA with a cutoff comfortably N of the beltway would ease concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 hundreds of an inch of QPF is inconsequential...the point is it held steady as a whiff...I think places like Rockville and Columbia get barely any liquid if any....since we are on the fringe those 50 miles are critical and it is not just a matter of a precip shield...the euro is less amped, less potent, further south and east so the output actually makes sense...it isnt a matter of an identical storm just having resolution problems on the edges Rockville is closer to 5 miles from DC than 50 fwiw. I don't see snowfall being too drastically different between there and DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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