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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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Yes. I punted. Yesterday or the day before. If we get more than light rain/snow mix or a light cartopper I bust badly from that point. Of course if it looks like we get nailed I am not sticking to my punt. That would be dumb. But I did punt for sure. I didn't become remotely interested in this storm more than a T until 9:10 last night.

 

Ok.  It was a legitimate question, I didn't see/know that you did.

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Meh. Most years we'd love our spot 24 hours out. But, I wish I had some stats on 'living on the edge' this way (not like gymengineer's thread). I was about 60/40 snow v cloudy but would have liked to see the GFS bump a bit more N.

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Come on.. That was only for clients

Wub

I don't know why anyone would be taking precise precip cutoff literally with a single model 36 hours out unless this is your 1st time following models.

Yes, it's my first time following the models :P

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Meh. Most years we'd love our spot 24 hours out. But, I wish I had some stats on 'living on the edge' this way (not like gymengineer's thread). I was about 60/40 snow v cloudy but would have liked to see the GFS bump a bit more N.

Been a while since there's been a storm with 'such' a drastic cutoff. Talking 30 miles between nothing and an inch QPF. In the end don't imagine it'll be quite that drastic. 

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Meh. Most years we'd love our spot 24 hours out. But, I wish I had some stats on 'living on the edge' this way (not like gymengineer's thread). I was about 60/40 snow v cloudy but would have liked to see the GFS bump a bit more N.

I mean in a number of instances it's been north, I don't really remember many where its been south. Considering which features are key in this instance, I'd go north over south. 

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What a nightmare for LWX, especially with the timing.

The 500 vort is still a hair south of my personal confidence zone... but it's close enough. This area is always a giant pain.. putting us right on the edge makes it so much less fun to try to figure out. But, whatever.. way better than hoping we don't change over for an extra 30 minutes on a cutter.
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Been a while since there's been a storm with 'such' a drastic cutoff. Talking 30 miles between nothing and an inch QPF. In the end don't imagine it'll be quite that drastic. 

I would probably lean to a broader gradient on the cutoff given the way it's supposed to come together.. but there is usually a sharp fall somewhere. i think we just don't always notice it when it's n/nw of us etc.
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What Va snowstorm missed DC last year? Here in Richmond we got nada last year, one wet snow one evening and that's it. Trust me, when it comes to snow-droughts, we are second to no one!

 

I'm pretty sure that we pulled off about 12-13 inches of snow last year in 2 storms (Feb 22 and March 5), while DCA was essentially getting shut out.  Both of those storms had a last minute north trend on the NAM of about 25-40 miles if I recall.  I thought RIC saw at least a 3 incher last year during one of those storms?

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What Va snowstorm missed DC last year? Here in Richmond we got nada last year, one wet snow one evening and that's it. Trust me, when it comes to snow-droughts, we are second to no one!

There was a storm last February (?)...it was during one of the few brief cold shots...stayed surpressed and hit CHO and EZF pretty hard if I recall (WSW criteria).  I think flurries made it to a DC-Annapolis line and that was about it.  Someone else mentioned it earlier in this thread.  Got some parts of central VA up to near climo snowfall for last winter. 

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