aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ji....NAM was 1-3ish for JYO and around 4"+ for IAD. As the crow flies IAD is about 8-10 miles from our houses...I'm not too concerned about being left out at this point with this scenario...we either get decent stuff or nothing and if nothing then most North of Woodbridge are in the same boat. Been on this ride before...I'm all about riding the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Sharp cutoffs can be real. March 1, 2009. Looking at all of the aspects of the NAM, I am surprised its precip shield didn't come further north than it did. Wishful thinking at play, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 09z SREF plumes for DCA QPF Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 FWIW, 12z RGEM is probably around 10mm or so in DCA -- rough eyeballing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 09z SREF plumes for DCA QPF sref qpf.jpg Snow sref snow.jpg Wow..... a few of those are very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Quite reasonable for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 COngrats Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 COngrats Wes? I think he said he's on the nipple. Fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 From updated morning LWX AFD WE ARE CONTEMPLATING FURTHER XPANSION OF THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Can anyone post the 09z SREF plumes for BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks to break the 362 day streak without a 1+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ji....NAM was 1-3ish for JYO and around 4"+ for IAD. As the crow flies IAD is about 8-10 miles from our houses...I'm not too concerned about being left out at this point with this scenario...we either get decent stuff or nothing and if nothing then most North of Woodbridge are in the same boat. Been on this ride before...I'm all about riding the fringe. Im moving to tavistock farms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't know why anyone would be taking precise precip cutoff literally with a single model 36 hours out unless this is your 1st time following models. It's called angst. I would prefer 1 more jog to the north myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here's 18z from yesterday through 12z today side by side. You can easily see what is going on here. 18z was the first hint @ an 850 low popping but still sucked for us. The model is honing in on the 850 dynamics combined with 500 as time goes by. First a 1012, then a 1008. Taking any cutoff line verbatim right now is crazy. It can go either way at this point but the trend towards wetter in DC is a great thing. We've been here before with mixed results. Majority is a bigger move NW (as has been stated by many already). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS through 12hrs looks healthier thyan 6z at 18hrs fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why would anyone have expectation that a discrete model would be skilled enough to nail down the precip shield 36 hours out, unless this is your 1st winter following weather? It's a legit concern, especially for those north. The NAM isn't the only model showing it. They all do to some varying degree. I don't think anyone is thinking that the model will nail down the ExACT northern extent, I think the concern is there WILL be a sharp cutoff somewhere in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why would anyone have expectation that a discrete model would be skilled enough to nail down the precip shield 36 hours out, unless this is your 1st winter following weather? Welcome back after punting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Can anyone post the 09z SREF plumes for BWI? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Pretty easy navigation around the SPC site BWI snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS through 12hrs looks healthier thyan 6z at 18hrs fwiw I'm comparing to 12z...looks a little more expansive on the western flank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Welcome back after punting..... He punted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm comparing to 12z...looks a little more expansive on the western flank yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 heh, 1008 in SC vs 1012 @ 6z is FAR from a bad thing...heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS feeling the brick wall too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS looks healthier....maybe slower? The northern extent hasn't reached at 30 hours us vs 0z at the 42 hour panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 More phasing with the N stream support, should help indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Pretty easy navigation around the SPC site BWI snow: BWI sref.jpg Thanks. I'll bookmark it now. I'd be happy if this verified, but I'm hoping the new model runs squeeze more juice out for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 hr 36 western va getting pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wahooegger Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Im moving to tavistock farms Woodlea's even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looking pretty similar at BWI as NAM looked thru 39 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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