Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 2:39 PM, zwyts said: not only that but temp profiles on the NAM are probably way too cold....it is a bad model and more often than not it will f-u-ck us over how can a short range model not be in its wheel house 1 day before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 2:36 PM, usedtobe said: that's why I think for a forecast you offer a couple of different scenarios as the SREFS also have some decent members. The gradient is going to be really tight which always raises questions. What did the Euro do last night? Did it give us anything? At what point does the SREF take over for accuracy when getting closer to the storm? 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 im barely concerned about precip type at this pt. im really only concerned that we stay on the fringe than have it pass 50 miles to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 2:37 PM, mitchnick said: not great....typical on average the start will likely be light rain and will change to snow once heavier echoes are overhead Got it. Thanks! Really hoping this pans out. Can't take the frustration, though I'm preaching to the choir here I know. Anyway, looks good so far. My weenie fingers are crossed. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NWS went bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Problem is-- the newscasts will have to alert folks of potential rush hour issues this evening, off of the 12Z suite. If GFS holds, what would you do? Still list possibilities but word the "worst case" very strongly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 2:45 PM, Ian said: im barely concerned about precip type at this pt. im really only concerned that we stay on the fringe than have it pass 50 miles to the south. the line will run just S of Mt. Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 2:45 PM, Ian said: im barely concerned about precip type at this pt. im really only concerned that we stay on the fringe than have it pass 50 miles to the south.hi I'm on the same page. Fringe is my worry, not temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This is so like Jan 2010 (from my perspective). Just not as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 why cant we just get a normal storm where there isnt always this sharp cutoff somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 DT going nuts, calling people out, telling fans to shut up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 2:48 PM, Ji said: why cant we just get a normal storm where there isnt always this sharp cutoff somewhere isnt that normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Does someone have a bigger map off the NCEP site than from the MAG NCEP page? The northern cutoff looks pretty significantly (not just slightly) different than on Allen's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Even with the stronger ULL, with the extreme banding, somone will get screwed. (Maybe me..) It forms that mega band and pulls it back towards the ULL/SLP-- So, while I expect my area to do well, 3-6 east of BR, 6-10 west, there's going to be a few sad faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Also helps us nicely that the h5 low remains tightly closed at 42 in N NC (just north of RAH) and then opens into an nice h5 wave in NE NC at 45 and slowly washes out as it leaves us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 2:44 PM, H2O said: At what point does the SREF take over for accuracy when getting closer to the storm? 24 hours? The NAM loses to the GFS and SREF mean at 36 hrs and has a high bias for the .75 or greater threshold. That's part of the reason matt has expressed worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 2:50 PM, gymengineer said: Does someone have a bigger map off the NCEP site than from the MAG NCEP page? The northern cutoff looks pretty significantly (not just slightly) different than on Allen's site.they are close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That cutoff is one of nightmares for us folks north of BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 3:06 PM, mapgirl said: That cutoff is one of nightmares for us folks north of BWI Maybe... At least it keeps expectations in check more. 9 out of 10 storms bump north tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 3:07 PM, Ian said: Maybe... At least it keeps expectations in check more. 9 out of 10 storms bump north tho. Good luck with your 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 3:06 PM, mapgirl said: That cutoff is one of nightmares for us folks north of BWI I think it'll do what Phin said and come north before the event, BWI north myself included have time for the 25-50 miles we're hoping for. I mean the 1" precip line is only 60 miles to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 3:06 PM, mapgirl said: That cutoff is one of nightmares for us folks north of BWI Agreed. Just brutal as depicted on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 2:59 PM, usedtobe said: The NAM loses to the GFS and SREF mean at 36 hrs and has a high bias for the .75 or greater threshold. That's part of the reason matt has expressed worry. It's not like what the NAM is showing is much better in this case than the GFS or most recent SREF mean...especially for those on the edge, who would prefer the other two over the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm not expecting anything more than flurries. DC folks, enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 3:09 PM, gymengineer said: It's not like what the NAM is showing is much better in this case than the GFS or most recent SREF mean...especially for those on the edge. Yea, the GFS is actually better for the folks on the edge, I'd blame it on resolution, but I mean I think some snow regardless makes it north of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 2:59 PM, usedtobe said: The NAM loses to the GFS and SREF mean at 36 hrs and has a high bias for the .75 or greater threshold. That's part of the reason matt has expressed worry. 09z SREF mean had 0.5 QPF into DCA... so the 0.7 or so the NAM has, while perhaps overdone, has some support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 3:07 PM, mapgirl said: Good luck with your 4-8 Come on.. That was only for clients Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 3:11 PM, yoda said: 09z SREF mean had 0.5 QPF into DCA... so the 0.7 or so the NAM has, while perhaps overdone, has some support Gotta like where you sit right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 3:06 PM, mapgirl said: That cutoff is one of nightmares for us folks north of BWI SREF and GFS are both better for Bmore proper and the immediate surrounding areas. Still not WSW criteria or anything, but something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 3:13 PM, WxUSAF said: SREF and GFS are both better for Bmore proper and the immediate surrounding areas. Still not WSW criteria or anything, but something. Yea around 2-4 for Baltimore verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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