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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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that's why I think for a forecast you offer a couple of different scenarios as the SREFS also have some decent members.  The gradient is going to be really tight which always raises questions.  What did the Euro do last night?  Did it give us anything? 

At what point does the SREF take over for accuracy when getting closer to the storm? 24 hours?

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not great....typical on average

the start will likely be light rain and will change to snow once heavier echoes are overhead

Got it.  Thanks!  Really hoping this pans out.  Can't take the frustration, though I'm preaching to the choir here I know. Anyway, looks good so far.  My weenie fingers are crossed.  ;-)

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Even with the stronger ULL, with the extreme banding, somone will get screwed. (Maybe me..)

 

It forms that mega band and pulls it back towards the ULL/SLP-- So, while I expect my area to do well, 3-6 east of BR, 6-10 west, there's going to be a few sad faces. 

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The NAM loses to the GFS and SREF mean at 36 hrs and has a high bias for  the .75 or greater threshold.  That's part of the reason matt has expressed worry. 

It's not like what the NAM is showing is much better in this case than the GFS or most recent SREF mean...especially for those on the edge, who would prefer the other two over the NAM.

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