MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 7pm Thursday sounding near DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Maybe shouldn't post this but may as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 sorry leesburg...maybe next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 at hour 42 the 6 hour precip shows that it is going to be snowing like a mofo here thursday eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Although it sounds like Phin is wishcasting, there usually is some merit to the precip coming north or being a bit more north than modeled. So if I were in the Bmore area, I'd take solace in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If we go back a couple days, the things stacked against this threat like confluence, shear, lack of surface reflection, etc have all changed. Confluence is still a problem for md'ers but we have a heck of a lot going for us now. Surface low gets its act together, Ull is staying better organized, and there is a heck of a lot more moisture working in the system. Model runs keep packing more punch so what seemed mostly harmless a few days back has evolved into a much stronger and organized system. And its still not resolved. My hunch is an obvious and expected shift n&w with the heavier precip. Not just being a weenie. If I was in the bullseye right now I would be expecting parrs and mt vortmax to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 DC pretty stratified according to the NAM... Silver Spring around .5, Holocaust Museum .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 if it doesn't come down hard enough on the northern fringe, I'll be wet and not white BWI gets about .45 for NAM. What is the issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This could be a complete bust...the NAM has screwed us over so many times.... We gotta get off the edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/20000125.06z.rad.gifhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/20000125.06z.rad.gif I mentioned this morning that this was ;looking more and more like 1/25/00 in the way the models were depicting it and the evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NE Balti Zen, you're one more shift north from being in this. I get that...but at some point, it won't shift further. No reason to think this is coming further at this point. Nice storm for folks to our south, good for them. Just noting the WSW criteria shutout contiues for Balt proper it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This could be a complete bust...the NAM has screwed us over so many times.... it looks good for you. I get screwed. Im pulling for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't know if its a graphics issue or what, but the maps on Allens site and the NCEP don't line up with the precip on the northern extent. I don't think that's really important, doubt they are that precisely correct anyway, but they are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 BWI gets about .45 for NAM. What is the issue? BWI is pretty far south of Baltimore proper. Verbatim, this run would give those in N and NE Baltimore basically zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 DCA in a great spot, want BWI in a better position. One more north shift will do it. Anyone know ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 sorry leesburg...maybe next time You give up too easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 6z GFS did not have quite the cutoff as NAM had this run and prior runs maybe a resolution diff, but it may mean as well that it will be a little more forgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This could be a complete bust...the NAM has screwed us over so many times.... that's why I think for a forecast you offer a couple of different scenarios as the SREFS also have some decent members. The gradient is going to be really tight which always raises questions. What did the Euro do last night? Did it give us anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You give up too easy He has given up 6 times since the Euro last ran Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 that's why I think for a forecast you offer a couple of different scenarios as the SREFS also have some decent members. The gradient is going to be really tight which always raises questions. What did the Euro do last night? Did it give us anything? No. In fact, hilariously, DT punted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 In the end I see very little difference in the northern cutoff of the precip from the 6z and 12z NAM. Almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There are some nasty sharp cutoffs on the northern and southern edges of that snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 DCA in a great spot, want BWI in a better position. One more north shift will do it. Anyone know ratios? not great....typical on average the start will likely be light rain and will change to snow once heavier echoes are overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't know if its a graphics issue or what, but the maps on Allens site and the NCEP don't line up with the precip on the northern extent. I don't think that's really important, doubt they are that precisely correct anyway, but they are different. I think Allen's is mapped to a 40 km grid while the NCEP site has higher resolution than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I mentioned this morning that this was ;looking more and more like 1/25/00 in the way the models were depicting it and the evolution Not really, that was a SW that dove in from the PAC nw, this is a good ole SW ULL-- there was a mega band that formed and moved NW-- this mega band is going to form and collapse SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 that's why I think for a forecast you offer a couple of different scenarios as the SREFS also have some decent members. The gradient is going to be really tight which always raises questions. What did the Euro do last night? Did it give us anything? Wes, the .05 qpf line intersects right through the district. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 7pm Thursday sounding near DCA NAM_218_2013011612_F36_39.0000N_77.0000W.png that is a nice sounding. I'd be fine if everything stays right where it is. NAM is probably over doing it a bit with qpf but still the potential for the most snow I've seen the last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Not really, that was a SW that dove in from the PAC nw, this is a good ole SW ULL-- there was a mega band that formed and moved NW-- this mega band is going to form and collapse SE. that's why I said more and more, and not exact it's not going to reach that magnitude up here (14.9" at BWI) but during the height the general precip shield will be similar to the one Matt posted imho hey, we'll see decent accum to get this monkey off our backs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 euro was horrible for us except.. again.. it was a trend in the right direction and the mean was also wetter than the op and the previous mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 not only that but temp profiles on the NAM are probably way too cold....it is a bad model and more often than not it will f-u-ck us over i'd roll the dice with the setup. it's mid january. bet cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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