nflwxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:06 AM, Midlo Snow Maker said: ric gets 0.75" roa" up to 1" dc 0.10-0.25" CHO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:04 AM, zwyts said: it sucks for us dude...not sure why anyone is jazzed about it It's better than it was.. Not sure it's infallible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:07 AM, nflwxman said: CHO?0.25"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks really warm for Richmond at start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:06 AM, Midlo Snow Maker said: ric gets 0.75" roa" up to 1" dc 0.10-0.25" first half, or more is rain too-- (taken as is0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:08 AM, Ji said: Looks really warm for Richmond at start It definitely looks like less snow overall than the American models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:05 AM, zwyts said: are we looking at the same run? Yeah this might not even give DCA a trace...by the time its cold enough both at the sfc and aloft, its almost done with what little precip falls. There's a small area in VA that may get some accumulations this run. But Euro has a lot of work to get looking better like the NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:08 AM, Huffwx said: first half, or more is rain too-- (taken as is0yes starts as rain and goes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:06 AM, Midlo Snow Maker said: ric gets 0.75" roa" up to 1" dc 0.10-0.25" Most of the .75 Richmond is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think our hope lies in tonight's system leaving a boundary behind that it can develop on better than w/o it as well as be a ready made source of moisture north trends in NINA type years (this week's ENSO 3.4 is -.6C by the way) persist often up to the very end so I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:09 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this might not even give DCA a trace...by the time its cold enough both at the sfc and aloft, its almost done with what little precip falls. There's a small area in VA that may get some accumulations this run. But Euro has a lot of work to get looking better like the NAM/GFS. With all do respect ORH, the euro hasn't been smacking any home runs lately, and in some of the storms with the last minute trends, it hasn't been the first to catch on. I mean it could be right, but I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Awful run for DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:11 AM, ddweatherman said: With all do respect ORH, the euro hasn't been smacking any home runs lately, and in some of the storms with the last minute trends, it hasn't been the first to catch on. I mean it could be right, but I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket. He didn't say he thought the Euro would happen though! He just analyzed this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:11 AM, ddweatherman said: With all do respect ORH, the euro hasn't been smacking any home runs lately, and in some of the storms with the last minute trends, it hasn't been the first to catch on. I mean it could be right, but I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket. I wasn't speculating whether it was correct or not, just stating what it showed. Its still the best model by verification in qpf at 48h despite it not being great recently...though the GFS has been giving it a run for its money in the past 30 days on verificaiton scores in QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's not the BIG event shown on the NAM/GFS-- 1-2 over my area. I'd take it and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:14 AM, ORH_wxman said: I wasn't speculating whether it was correct or not, just stating what it showed. Its still the best model by verification in qpf at 48h despite it not being great recently...though the GFS has been giving it a run for its money in the past 30 days on verificaiton scores in QPF. Sorry to make it seem like thats what you were expecting, I get where you're coming from. I would weigh them equally, and overall I like the trend, mitchnick's posts say it all about the ninaish north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:12 AM, Ji said: Awful run for DC areaenjoy your overcast, you might get a few flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Look, using a global model for banding won't work-- they want to pull that thing SE and really do a number near GSO to RDU. I can easily see that going FVX to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:14 AM, zwyts said: maybe there will be something later in the run Yep..like a .03 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:12 AM, Ji said: Awful run for DC area Lost.. It was better than earlier. At least wait till the north jumpers go back south before giving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'll take an inch.. if it ends up more, great! If not, well, no surprise given the past 34 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Good luck with it. This current one kept trending north for quite awhile..until inside the last 24 hours. An aside, I have a relative with a farm at 3K feet in Floyd County, VA and he may get a lot. On 1/16/2013 at 6:11 AM, mitchnick said: I think our hope lies in tonight's system leaving a boundary behind that it can develop on better than w/o it as well as be a ready made source of moisture north trends in NINA type years (this week's ENSO 3.4 is -.6C by the way) persist often up to the very end so I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:18 AM, Ian said: Lost.. It was better than earlier. At least wait till the north jumpers go back south before giving in. I've seen this movie now many times. I know how it ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We're too north for southern sliders...too far south for redeveloping clippers and miller Bs. To close to the mountains for clippers and too west of the ocean for eastern trending nor'easters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:27 AM, Ji said: We're too north for southern sliders...too far south for redeveloping clippers and miller Bs. To close to the mountains for clippers and too west of the ocean for eastern trending nor'easters and yet, you call it home sweet home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 anyone mention what the GFS ens looked like for this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:31 AM, zwyts said: getting scraped by this isnt going to do much....we need to be hit pretty flush to get accumulating snow...I will enjoy just seeing flakes however...I wasn't into this until around 9:10 nothing else on the run so far of any interest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:33 AM, mitchnick said: anyone mention what the GFS ens looked like for this thing? About .2-.25 BWI, .3ish for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:34 AM, ddweatherman said: About .2-.25 BWI, .3ish for DCA. thanks, I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 6:35 AM, mitchnick said: thanks, I'll take it Darn right, let the nina trend go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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