Prolonged negative QBO

[OKpowdah]

This latest easterly QBO period is on track to become the "strongest" episode on record. Below I have plotted the QBO along with an integrated QBO index which very simply sums the monthly QBO across each full easterly period.

 

So far this current -QBO period has an integrated magnitude of -280.62 ... which falls just short of the 2001 -QBO period with a magnitude of -280.79 ... yes, JUST short.

 

The mean is -191.6 and standard deviation is 48.6.

 

Data so far for January 2013 suggests the monthly QBO should come in negative once again. It's possible the recent SSW has helped stunt the descent of the westerlies, and is prolonging the easterly QBO.

 

This will put the -QBO period at 18 months long ... behind only 2001 which was 19 months.

 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

I've been following this too. This hopefully will help for a nice Feb.

[OKpowdah]

I've been following this too. This hopefully will help for a nice Feb.

 

I'd be interested in what happens as the easterly phase of the SAO kicks in also. That would diminish any westerly shear whatsoever in the stratosphere, so the dominant state continues to be easterly shear ... with the temperature anomalies that goes along with the thermal wind.

 

The mid latitude and polar stratospheric temperatures will continue to represent that of an easterly QBO regime.

 

It'll be interesting to see whether the sun also remains relatively quiet, as it has been for the last month or so now. 

[OKpowdah]

As expected, the January QBO came in still moderately negative, at -6.07

 

So the new results of this system that I described above have the current negative QBO phase as the greatest "integrated magnitude" on record.

 

Not to mention, the westerlies are only begrudgingly starting to intensify and descend. February could come in just below zero as well.