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NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III


klw

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A quick glance at the graphics for our point forecast suggests that we’re getting back into a more typical winter pattern for the Northern Greens

 

17JAN13A.jpg

 

In terms of outdoor recreation, a downside is that we’re probably dropping into the freezer on Monday, but that’s obviously better than being too warm in terms of the snowpack.  In his broadcast this morning, Roger Hill spoke to the building snowpack with the upcoming pattern.

 

The front hasn’t come through our area yet, but it looks like something is on the way:

 

17JAN13A.gif

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What did you end up with, Jeb?

 

Another inch recorderd as of 9 pm, giving a snowfall total of 6.25". Nothing further overnight.

 

At the office this morning. Wish I could be home when the sun comes up. Every branch, twig, tree, pole, etc just pasted with snow. Would make for great photography with a clear blue sky.

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Received 4.0" with LE 0.37", in 14 hr of precip.  I've yet to see +SN this season, but my 37.7" total is 3-4" above my avg thru 1/16.  Snowpack now back at 12", though I think the cold will help settle it an inch or two.  Not much temp range yest, 25/22.  Tonight should offer another chance at a minimum starting with a crooked number.

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Man one heck of a squall moving through right now.  Visibility is really quite low.  Air is thick with tiny flakes.  Coming down though.  Ski area is under the northern end of the 30dbz+ echos and it is ripping.  Can't really see the other side of the parking lot.

 

squall.gif

 

 

 

And the west slope of Mansfield in Underhill...

 

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Winds are really honking too... pretty wild out there.

 

No idea if this fits WINDEX parameters (haven't really looked) but its got that type of appeal.  High winds and short duration very low visibility.

 

And we just went from driving needle flakes over to massive dendrites.  Just like that, all the sudden the snowflake type changed drastically.  Huge fluffy flakes now.

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Man one heck of a squall moving through right now.  Visibility is really quite low.  Air is thick with tiny flakes.  Coming down though.  Ski area is under the northern end of the 30dbz+ echos and it is ripping.  Can't really see the other side of the parking lot.

 

I'm keeping an eye on that. Saw MVL drop to 1/2SM SN with winds gusting into the 30s.

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I'm keeping an eye on that. Saw MVL drop to 1/2SM SN with winds gusting into the 30s.

 

Now 1/4SM +SN. And I don't know what it's like up there, but we have a lot of wet slush on the roads today. This front has been really knocking temps down from around 30 to the low 20s (or lower).

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It is absolutely ripping out there.  Wow... these arctic fronts are usually fairly impressive.  Love this stuff.

 

Composite... I love how it regenerated again back upstream of the Spine.  I thought the heaviest was through and now its back-building a bit.

 

squall2.gif

 

 

Lower scan....Spine west of town is getting raked.

 

squall3.gif

 

 

Morrisville-Stowe (MVL) ASOS down to 1/4sm +SN and gusting over 30.

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A quick glance at the graphics for our point forecast suggests that we’re getting back into a more typical winter pattern for the Northern Greens

 

17JAN13A.jpg

 

In terms of outdoor recreation, a downside is that we’re probably dropping into the freezer on Monday, but that’s obviously better than being too warm in terms of the snowpack.  In his broadcast this morning, Roger Hill spoke to the building snowpack with the upcoming pattern.

 

The front hasn’t come through our area yet, but it looks like something is on the way:

 

17JAN13A.gif

 

pet peeve.  I hate when the graphic says "Heavy Snow" when the forecast is for accumulations of less than an inch.  so excited to see the promising the graphic and then the forecast is a huge letdown.  it aint "Heavy" unless there is accumulation of some significance.

 

thinking we need a good foot of snow with some density to it, to get back to skiing in the woods.

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pet peeve.  I hate when the graphic says "Heavy Snow" when the forecast is for accumulations of less than an inch.  so excited to see the promising the graphic and then the forecast is a huge letdown.  it aint "Heavy" unless there is accumulation of some significance.

 

thinking we need a good foot of snow with some density to it, to get back to skiing in the woods.

 

Well this issue is that heavy terminology has nothing to do with accumulations (similar to blizzard wording). Visibilities are dropping to 1/4SM, so there will be heavy snow, which will be quite hazardous for anybody out in it.

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Well this issue is that heavy terminology has nothing to do with accumulations (similar to blizzard wording). Visibilities are dropping to 1/4SM, so there will be heavy snow, which will be quite hazardous for anybody out in it.

This definitely verifies the snow may be briefly heavy at times stuff...the wind gusts over 30mph in the valley (clocking near 50mph on some higher elevation ski area sites) is making what looks like interesting travel down RT 108 right now.

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It is absolutely ripping out there.  Wow... these arctic fronts are usually fairly impressive.  Love this stuff.

 

Composite... I love how it regenerated again back upstream of the Spine.  I thought the heaviest was through and now its back-building a bit.

 

squall2.gif

 

 

Lower scan....Spine west of town is getting raked.

 

squall3.gif

 

 

Morrisville-Stowe (MVL) ASOS down to 1/4sm +SN and gusting over 30.

I would bet a little bit of upslope enhancement with the passage, Froude Numbers are just under 1 this morning.

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Well this issue is that heavy terminology has nothing to do with accumulations (similar to blizzard wording). Visibilities are dropping to 1/4SM, so there will be heavy snow, which will be quite hazardous for anybody out in it.

I understand the reasoning.  I would prefer if they put "heavy at times" in the forecast instead of the graphic.  for a weenie snow lover like me, it is quite the letdown the way they do it.  "Heavy snow" joy.  less than inch, not so much.

 

meanwhile, whats the deal with the winds on saturday???  could be looking at widespread windholds which will not go over well with the holiday crowds.

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pet peeve.  I hate when the graphic says "Heavy Snow" when the forecast is for accumulations of less than an inch.  so excited to see the promising the graphic and then the forecast is a huge letdown.  it aint "Heavy" unless there is accumulation of some significance.

 

thinking we need a good foot of snow with some density to it, to get back to skiing in the woods.

 

Yeah... the snow yesterday and today is nice for cosmetic reasons, as now it looks like winter again instead of the dirty/crusty snow look.  However, even with a 2-4" yesterday at area mountains and another 1-3" today, the Sugarbush to Jay stretch of the Greens is going to need a lot more than that to get the off-piste back to an enjoyable level.  Maybe some very low angle meadow skipping could be had, but no one is really eager to jump onto anything that's not groomed right now.  The steep bump runs don't seem to be getting a lot of traffic, haha.

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I understand the reasoning.  I would prefer if they put "heavy at times" in the forecast instead of the graphic.  for a weenie snow lover like me, it is quite the letdown the way they do it.  "Heavy snow" joy.  less than inch, not so much.

 

meanwhile, whats the deal with the winds on saturday???  could be looking at widespread windholds which will not go over well with the holiday crowds.

 

Well we are limited to how much text can go below the graphics, but the text in the point and click will say "at times."

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The snow has stopped for now here in Burlington for now, but I’m monitoring the snow at the house via web cam, and it’s still snowing there.  Snowfall at this point looks to be about an inch and a half based off my measurement blocks:

 

Awesome!  Watching the snow accumulate at home while at work.  Now that's solid. 

 

What's the triangle block for?  I'm assuming that one is painted in 2" increments while the other one is 1"?

 

Snow has pretty much stopped all together now up at Mansfield.  Will be checking the snowstakes around 11:30am... but my gut is saying 1-2".

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Yeah... the snow yesterday and today is nice for cosmetic reasons, as now it looks like winter again instead of the dirty/crusty snow look.  However, even with a 2-4" yesterday at area mountains and another 1-3" today, the Sugarbush to Jay stretch of the Greens is going to need a lot more than that to get the off-piste back to an enjoyable level.  Maybe some very low angle meadow skipping could be had, but no one is really eager to jump onto anything that's not groomed right now.  The steep bump runs don't seem to be getting a lot of traffic, haha.

 

I'll probably do a little recon mission in the woods on monday but not expecting any skiing.  timing isnt bad for me personally since I have to go to a wedding next weekend anyway.

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Now 1/4SM +SN. And I don't know what it's like up there, but we have a lot of wet slush on the roads today. This front has been really knocking temps down from around 30 to the low 20s (or lower).

 

 

Hope we can score on some squalls with the arctic front pushing thru

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Hope we can score on some squalls with the arctic front pushing thru

 

Obs are a little sparse, but based on what has happened upstream I pulled the trigger on an SPS almost to the coast. Through 60 minutes that takes it just about to the WFO here. It won't be wall to wall white out, but there will be elements of this band that really drop VSBY.

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Obs are a little sparse, but based on what has happened upstream I pulled the trigger on an SPS almost to the coast. Through 60 minutes that takes it just about to the WFO here. It won't be wall to wall white out, but there will be elements of this band that really drop VSBY.

 

Good write up, I can see the squall line dropping SE on radar, Most of the time we don't do very well in these as we get down sloped big time, But occasionally it pans out, Especially if its over performing up stream

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME1048 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013MEZ007-012>014-018>022-025>028-NHZ002>004-006-171645-ANDROSCOGGIN-COASTAL WALDO-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-INTERIORWALDO-INTERIOR YORK-KENNEBEC-KNOX-LINCOLN-NORTHERN CARROLL-NORTHERNGRAFTON-NORTHERN OXFORD-SAGADAHOC-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERNCOOS-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-1048 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013...STRONG SNOW SQUALLS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIREAND WESTERN MAINE THROUGH 1145 AM EST...AT 1046 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ALINE OF STRONG SNOW SQUALLS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4MILES NORTHEAST OF CANAAN TO WEST PARIS TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OFLIVERMORE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF PITTSFIELDTO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOUTH PARIS TO 9 MILES EAST OFLINCOLN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS WILLAFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND FRANCONIA NOTCH STATE PARK...CRAWFORDNOTCH STATE PARK...STARKS...SMITHFIELD...NORTH ANSON...EASTWILTON...WILTON...WEST PARIS...TEMPLE AND SUMNER THROUGH 1145 AM EST.LOCALIZED BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOWSQUALL...WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO UNDER A QUARTER MILE IN HEAVYSNOW ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.THE SQUALLS SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN 30 MINUTES AT ANY GIVENLOCATION BUT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH OF SNOW. FALLING TEMPERATURESWILL ALSO MAKE FOR SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AS ANY MELTED SNOWRE-FREEZES. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AND BE ON THE LOOKOUTFOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
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Good write up, I can see the squall line dropping SE on radar, Most of the time we don't do very well in these as we get down sloped big time, But occasionally it pans out, Especially if its over performing up stream


It generally gets disrupted by the mountains, but occasionally a piece breaks off and survives the trek. Where, is hard to say, but we'll know shortly when it hits IZG.

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