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NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III


klw

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Looks like the Tilton observer had 15.0" total with a 15" depth this morning so he/she must be reporting the depth as new snow. That matches up well with my 15-17" depth. Interestingly, they must melt down cores for w.e. based on their numbers. Their total was 15.0" new with 1.84" liquid...similar crappy ratios that I had due to wind.

I measured 16- 17" at 5am when I went out to plow, right after the deformation band left us.  Woke up at 3am, groggy and looked outside...wow!  We had heavy snow then from around 7:30 am for a couple of hours so I am pretty sure we got 20, but who know.

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Remember the other day when I said someone would be fooked with the transfer of energy with this storm?

Yeah, that was KRUT. 2-4" total there. Thank god for that northern energy. Ex gf goes to school there. Karmas a beotch ;)

Southeast low level winds shadowed them to pieces.

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I'll take this forecast... nickle and dime, lol.

 

Monday: Snow in the morning...then snow or rain in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Monday Night: Snow or sleet or rain likely until midnight...then snow showers likely after midnight. Additional snow and sleet accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Lows in the upper 20s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Tuesday: Snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 16. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

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Air was crystal clear this morning above the inversion, with great views all around...

 

Looking south down the Spine towards Camels Hump and Sugarbush...

 

 

Looking north to Jay Peak...

 

 

And looking east with the Presidential Range looming on the horizon...MWN high point on the right.

 

One can easily imagine how anything downwind of these mountains downslopes quite severely, lol.

 

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Awesome AFD from BTV...

Could be a nice little event for the ski resorts, and hopefully the neighboring towns, haha ;)

SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW DECENT

RH THROUGH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS

PERPENDICULAR TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN

GREENS THOUGH FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS OFF LOCAL 4KM WRF INDICATE

UNBLOCKED FLOW SO EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW TO FALL ON THE EAST

SIDE OF THE GREENS WITH JAY PEAK LIKELY HITTING THE JACKPOT. AS

PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...THE ONE INGREDIENT MISSING WILL

BE STRONG CAA TO HELP SQUEEZE OUT REMAINING MOISTURE AND INCREASE

THE FLUFF FACTOR. GIVEN THE WARMER THERMAL PROFILES... SNOW

RATIOS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 15:1 YIELDING ACCUMULATIONS OF

1-3" FROM AROUND 1-2KFT...AND 3-6" ABOVE 2KT. STORM TOTALS ACROSS

THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COULD BE 6-10".

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Not a map you see everyday!!!  Not only is it upside down with the totals, so many parts of NNE are below 6", just incredible for February!!

 

sd1_today.jpg

That is bass acckwards, usually we leave bare ground and arrive to a healthy snow pack, tomorrow we'll be leaving over 2 feet to a little smaller snow pack, looks  like we picked a good week to go up though.

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Not a map you see everyday!!!  Not only is it upside down with the totals, so many parts of NNE are below 6", just incredible for February!!

 

Yeah don't see that all that often, but it does happen.  I remember in January 2011 when all of SNE was sitting with snowpacks larger than that map (widespread 30"+ on the ground), and up in NNE we were all much, much lower.  I remember at one point during that month that Worcester, MA had more snow on the ground than the Mansfield summit Co-Op. 

 

Quite a little difference here locally right now... here on the immediate east side of the Greens, there's around a foot of snow on the ground, while only a few miles away as the crow flies, but on the other side of the geographic barrier of the Spine snow totals are less than 6 inches.

 

The spots in the box are all roughly the same elevation (400-800ft) or at least not enough difference to matter, but its always interesting how sharp a gradient there can be here.  On the flip side, a huge blocked flow upslope event can cause those west slope locations to have a lot more than us on the east side. 

 

I'm always amazed at how much topography places in the local climate. 

 

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Air was crystal clear this morning above the inversion, with great views all around...

 

Looking south down the Spine towards Camels Hump and Sugarbush...

 

attachicon.gifIMG_2689_edited-1.jpg

 

Looking north to Jay Peak...

 

attachicon.gifIMG_2715_edited-1.jpg

 

And looking east with the Presidential Range looming on the horizon...MWN high point on the right.

 

One can easily imagine how anything downwind of these mountains downslopes quite severely, lol.

 

attachicon.gifIMG_2706_edited-2.jpg

holy crap, those views are awesome! Just beautiful!

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Air was crystal clear this morning above the inversion, with great views all around...

 

Looking south down the Spine towards Camels Hump and Sugarbush...

 

attachicon.gifhttp://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=89300'>IMG_2689_edited-1.jpg

 

Looking north to Jay Peak...

 

[img=https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/attachicon.gif] http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=89302'>IMG_2715_edited-1.jpg

 

And looking east with the Presidential Range looming on the horizon...MWN high point on the right.

 

One can easily imagine how anything downwind of these mountains downslopes quite severely, lol.

 

[img=https://www.amwx.us/public/style_images/American_Weather/attachicon.gif] http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=89301'>IMG_2706_edited-2.jpg

Wow, you can see me waving in the picture.

Looking down from the summit this morning, the cars in the parking lot were shimmering in the sun. I dont think i have ever seen that before. It looked like the light was flashing, undulating and moving on each car windshield. Is that because of something in the air?

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Man, the local BTV WRF and the higher-res NAM are absolutely hammering the Greens, especially north of I-89 in the 24 hour period from 7pm today through 7pm tomorrow. 

 

BTV AFD is all over it...mentioning possible advisory for upslope snow and 4-10" of accumulations from the upslope portion of the event.

 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT FOCUS WL SHIFT FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE TO
MESOSCALE FEATURES...AS UPSLOPE FLW DEVELOPS AND ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL OCCURS ACRS THE MTNS. SOUNDING PROFILES CONT TO SUPPORT
GOOD SFC TO 700MB RH IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ALONG
WITH SFC TO 85H WINDS PERPENDICULAR TO THE MTNS...WHICH HELPS TO
ENHANCE LLVL UVVS FIELDS. BTV 4KM SHOWS SEVERAL IMPRESSIVE BURST
OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT JAY PEAK...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE
QPF/OMEGA FIELDS...ONE AROUND 03Z TONIGHT AND ANOTHER AROUND 12Z
TUES. THINKING THIS LONG DURATION UPSLOPE EVENT WL YIELD QPF
VALUES BTWN 0.35 AND 0.55 ACRS THE NW DACKS AND BTWN 0.40 AND
0.60" ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS FROM JAY PEAK TO STOWE.
AS STATED
BY PREVIOUS FCSTER...FROUDE NUMBER SHOW VALUES BTWN 1 AND
2...SUPPORTING UNBLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM OF THE THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE
NEK...BUT OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF LLVL WIND IS LIMITED. IF PARAMETERS
CONT TO LOOK FAVORABLE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ADVISORY IS
NEEDED ACRS THE NW DACKS AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES/GREEN
MTNS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE BY 12Z
WEDS.
MEANWHILE...ACRS THE CPV/SLV AND PARTS OF THE LWR CT VALLEY
VERY LIGHT QPF WITH ONLY DUSTINGS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY. WL MENTION
SCHC/CHC POPS AND TRY TO SHOW A TIGHT POP/QPF GRADIENT IN GRIDS
FROM VALLEYS TO MTNS. TEMPS TONIGHT WL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ACRS THE CPV...WITH VALUES IN THE 30S...BUT WL COOL INTO THE 20S
ACRS THE MTNS/NEK AND SLV. WEAK LLVL CAA CONTS ON TUES...BUT
WESTERN FLW WL WARM CPV BACK INTO THE U30S TO NEAR 40...WITH U20S
TO M30S MTNS. 925MB AND 85H TEMPS WL GRADUALLY COOL TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...AS WEAK CAA CONTINUES. LOWS TUES NIGHT WL BE TEENS
MTNS TO 20S WARMER VALLEYS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S BY
WEDS...VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. IN ADDITION...EXPECT THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BY
WEDS...AS 1000 TO 700MB RH DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY 18Z WEDS.

 



 

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This should keep us occupied over the next couple of days in the weather world.

 

  • Today Snow before 4pm, then rain and snow. High near 33. South wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Tonight Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 24. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Tuesday Snow showers. High near 29. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
  • Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
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^ Getting 0.25" of love from the WRF here.  Every little bit helps.

 

Man, quite a temp spread across VT this morning.  30s west of the Greens and single digits/teens this side.  We have been warming all night.  Was 3F when I hit the sack, 9F when I got up and now already up to 12F.

 

Skied at Burke yesterday--while it was fun and good to get out, their cover is very thin.  We have more snow here in our yard than they do at the top of Burke Mountain.  :whistle:

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Awesome AFD from BTV...

 

Could be a nice little event for the ski resorts, and hopefully the neighboring towns, haha ;)

 

 

 

Man, the local BTV WRF and the higher-res NAM are absolutely hammering the Greens, especially north of I-89 in the 24 hour period from 7pm today through 7pm tomorrow.

 

 

I just listened to Roger Hill’s broadcast, and he’s thinking a mostly snow event east of the Greens with possibly some sleet.  Fairly unblocked Froude Numbers between 1 and 2 were mentioned in the AFDRoger also seems pretty intrigued by a potential storm in the weekend range.

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