J.Spin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like the models from 48 hrs ago were MORE accurate w/r/t this northern stream. Going to bet that a strip from the High ADK thru Nor. VT gets 12-18 easy. Nice, I checked the web cam as of noontime and it’s closing in on 8” for the event so far at the house – my smaller measurement blocks are getting pretty buried: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's all about where the bands set up, too early to say. I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere up here 50-100 miles north and west of where is anticipated significantly outperforms projections just based on where a rogue band sets up and sits. Agreed, still a little early. And yeah, I sould see a heavy arced band setting up somewhere pretty far to the NW of the storm itself. Maybe the highlands of western NH--Croyden, Sunapee, New London. Maybe it'll make it further up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6-8 inches at Mansfield so far as of about 11:30am (6.3" at 1,550ft). Coming down hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Almost 4" in lyndonville. Fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Almost 4" in lyndonville. Fluffy. I knew you would bust too low - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I knew you would bust too low - LOL We will see! My 5-9" for st j may be ok. 6-10" for higher elevations in NEK may be low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 light snow 14.1F 3" so far. How's the Euro look for us up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VtWxWatcher Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.09” L.E. There was a steady snow falling this at observations time this morning. The flakes were in that middle size range, topping out around 8 mm in diameter, and the snow was fairly lofty at around 20 to 1 for the snow to water ratio. I don’t see any notable changes in the BTV advisories map, but we’ve been bumped up another accumulation tier on the projected accumulations map to the 10-14” range: Looking even better, especially for the Champlain Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 light snow 14.1F 3" so far. How's the Euro look for us up here? To quote Dendrite from the model thread: .50" PQI-1V4-MPV 0.75" HUL-BML-RUT 1.00" CYFC-IZG-DDH 1.50" BHB-CON-POU 2.00" PWM-PSM-FIT-CEF-BDR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just about 8" at 1500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not sure if this should go in here or in the upstate ny forum, but im in lake placid for the weekend, moderate snow, occasionally heavy. Havent measured but its gotta be over 5" at least. Gorgeous winter day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Thanks Allenson for finding Brain's post. Looks like the snow from the southern system is up to about Concord Nh at 2:45pm. Really curious where the deformation band is going to set up tonight. I think snow amounts are going to be on the lower side of forecasts except in Maine. Just my feeling but the deformation band area may do great, just don't know where that will be. Later..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6" here on the W slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 7 inches so far here in Peacham. We left the house at 8:30 to go to Burke Mtn. There was 3 down at that time and arrived home about half an hour ago to 4 inches more. There is definitely more snow here than at Burke and down in Lyndon/ St. j. Its already our biggest snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Maybe 2" here in Hanover so far--real light stuff all day. Wife emailed a few minutes ago and said "about 5 inches" at home so far. And yeah, I'm still not sure we'll get in on the juicy stuff or not. BTV has upped things I see, so time'll tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow has increased markedly as the edge of the southern system has reached us. Moderate to heavy snow vis 3/8 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just about 8" at 1500ft. Gotta be another 4-5 more than that at elevation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 7 inches so far here in Peacham. We left the house at 8:30 to go to Burke Mtn. There was 3 down at that time and arrived home about half an hour ago to 4 inches more. There is definitely more snow here than at Burke and down in Lyndon/ St. j. Its already our biggest snow of the season. Yes, and we are under a winter weather advisory, and could get another foot of snow tonight/tomorrow am. I guess i'll just chalk it up to the NEK folk being hardy and not needing any warning for a mere 1 1/2 foot snowfall ;>... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6.5" here so far from the primary system. but it's been really light with poor snow growth for the last hour and a half. Looks like I'm in the screw zone between those nice stationary returns in upstate NY and the coastal pushing into NH. I'm just not seeing much overnight from the coastal. I think another inch or two maybe. All is good though...I got my 6", the snowpack is fresh and I'm not stuck at home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6.5" here so far from the primary system. but it's been really light with poor snow growth for the last hour and a half. Looks like I'm in the screw zone between those nice stationary returns in upstate NY and the coastal pushing into NH. I'm just not seeing much overnight from the coastal. I think another inch or two maybe. All is good though...I got my 6", the snowpack is fresh and I'm not stuck at home! I think we'll still get some very back end bands and will still add up some tonight, I'd be surprised if they stay entirely east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think we'll still get some very back end bands and will still add up some tonight, I'd be surprised if they stay entirely east. I agree. I just don't see how those returns from the adk don't move a little back into VT overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gotta be another 4-5 more than that at elevation... Nope... its maybe 2" more at 3,000ft, if that. I couldn't find much over 10" at the summit and when I got to the base that's when I had the 8.5". These synoptic events don't have that much elevation differences.... its the upslope that tends to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 3pm was 8.5" at 1,500ft This was 45 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What a sweet day...9-10 inches through 4pm and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Great AFD from GYX FXUS61 KGYX 082059 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 359 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HEAVY SNOW WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN TURN EAST PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... ***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY*** RAPID CYCLOGENSIS WELL UNDERWAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES DEEPENING INTO THE LOW 990S ATTM. AS NRN STREAM ENERGY CONTINUES TO DIG SE UNDERNEATH THE POSITION OF SFC LOW...INTENSE STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE. LOW PRES WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK TONIGHT AS THIS INTENSIFICATION TAKES PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT...WITH 08/12Z GFS BEING SEVERAL MILES E...08/12Z NAM BEING SEVERAL MILES W...AND THE 08/12Z ECMWF REMAINING A GOOD COMPROMISE. CONSIDERING HOW STEADY THE ECMWF HAS BEEN...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM BASING THE FCST PACKAGE LARGELY IN THIS DIRECTION. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WAA AHEAD OF NRN STREAM S/WV WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MODEST FRONTOGENESIS AROUND H7. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A PERSISTENT BAND OF ONCL HEAVY SNOW FROM JUST S OF KAUG TO NEAR KIZG AND INTO CNTRL NH. ALSO PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL WORK WWD OFF THE WATER AND INTO COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE ELY ONSHORE FLOW. THESE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT AND PROLONGED AS COASTAL LOW PRES WINDS UP. TIMING...SNOW IS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS SRN AREAS ATTM. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD N THRU THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM W TO E BY SAT AFTERNOON. QPF...SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS IS PRIMED TO BE FED ATOP THE COLD AIR VIA STRONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CYCLONE. STRONG ELY LLJ TO THE NE OF THE CYCLONE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR WILL ALSO TRANSPORT PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL ALSO IMPINGE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ELY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...DOWNSLOPE EVAPORATION. ECMWF/GEM/SREF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH 1.75 TO 2 INCHES QPF ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES...DIPPING TO AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE MTNS. NAM REPRESENTS THE MOIST OUTLIER...WITH 2 INCHES ALL THE WAY INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN. GFS...WITH ITS MORE ELY SOLUTION WAS CLOSER TO 1.25 INCHES QPF ALONG THE COAST. WITH HPC/RFC GUIDANCE FAVORING THE ECMWF/SREF BLEND...USED THOSE GRIDS TO START QPF FCST. THEN ADDED LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO CREATE FINAL GRIDS. SNOWFALL...ATTM IDEAL SNOW GROWTH IS OCCURRING WITH A NEARLY 200 MB DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. VERY HIGH RATIO SNOWFALL IS RESULTING FROM RELATIVELY MEAGER QPF. WITHIN THE H7 FRONTOGENESIS BAND AND WITH BANDS PROPAGATING WWD FROM THE COAST...SNOW WILL BE 20 OR MORE TO 1 FLUFF AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AS COASTAL LOW PRES NEARS THE BENCHMARK...INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TAKES OVER. H8 FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO PEAK ALONG THE COAST...WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM COASTAL FNT. FARTHER W...H7 BANDING WILL MAXIMIZE JUST TO THE COLD SIDE OF DEFORMATION MAX AT THAT LVL. THIS FAVORS TWO AREAS OF CONCENTRATED BANDING ACROSS THE GYX CWFA. EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP WILL PLAY A MAJOR FACTOR IN DETERMINING FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS. ATTM THERE IS A GENERALIZED SNOWFALL FCST...WITH AN EMPHASIS WEIGHTED TOWARDS WHERE WE CURRENTLY THINK THOSE SNOW AMTNS AND BANDING WILL BE GREATEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COASTAL ZONES...THEN INTERIOR SECTIONS ON A LINE FROM KEEN...TO KIZG...EWD TO KAUG...BENEFIT FROM THIS BANDING. WITHIN THE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HR WILL BE PSBL. THESE ARE ALSO THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE TWO FEET OR MORE OF SNOW. IN THE MTNS AND NWD...MORE LIKE 8 TO 12 INCHES...WHERE LESS QPF AND DOWNSLOPING EAT INTO TOTALS. BETWEEN BANDS IN THE INTERIOR...14 TO 20 INCHES WILL STILL BE PSBL. THUNDERSNOW WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL...WITH LIGHTNING ALREADY NOTED N OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THAT WILL BE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WARM CONVEYOR AND DRY SLOT WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FLASH AND RUMBLE ACROSS SE NH AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY. WINDS...STRONG HIGH TO THE N AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL TIGHTEN GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP AS THIS OCCURS. WINDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE OUT OF THE NE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS CAA BEGINS TO INCREASE MIXING DEPTHS WILL ALSO DEEPEN IN TANDEM. THIS MARKS A PERIOD WHEN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PSBL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS. ACROSS THESE AREAS...WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN THE AFTN SAT STORM BEGINS TO WIND DOWN...AS IT MOVES EWD AND DOWNSLOPING TAKES OVER. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING PSBL DUE TO THE DRY NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN LATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just measured 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nice 9" snowfall up at the base of the mountain, but still like 7.75-8" here in town, which I was surprised about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow has picked up quite a bit here in Hanover in the last half-hour or so. Small flakes but the vis is certainly shutting down--getting that white/gray thing obscuring the hills. Should be an interesting ride home--though I will say I actually enjoy driving in the snow. Four-wheel, some tunes, the roads are quiet both traffic and decibel-wise and all the bloody pot-holes are filled in. Much easier on the suspension. True dat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snowed all day but didnt accumulate much. 6" maybe. Got windy at the summit in the afternoon, so impossible to tell how much was up there. Skiing was terrific today. Really sorry i wasnt in the office. Hoping it gets nasty later. Im thinking of donning a head lamp and walking in snowshoes on the golf course. Early to rise tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Love the shot on the Stowe Webcam right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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