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NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III


klw

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GFS is pretty much a non-event up here, lol.  Easily half the QPF throughout New England, and it has a really hard time getting that precip up north.

 

Do you think it will come around Powderfreak?   Read a poster that said it is better in the long range.  I thought it would trend with the other guidance but has been pretty stubborn.  There should be a NW deformation band.  Maybe with the GFS, if it was to verify that band would sit over me in Central NH.  Who knows but I don't like the run,   Guess you can't complain with all the upslope events you get why we on the other side of the spine miss out.  

 

Gene

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Do you think it will come around Powderfreak? Read a poster that said it is better in the long range. I thought it would trend with the other guidance but has been pretty stubborn. There should be a NW deformation band. Maybe with the GFS, if it was to verify that band would sit over me in Central NH. Who knows but I don't like the run, Guess you can't complain with all the upslope events you get why we on the other side of the spine miss out.

Gene

Not speaking for pf but as a forecaster, the extreme gfs solution I don't buy. I do think it'll amp back up for you NH guys.
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REasonable....though the WAA snows currently produced by that northern wave are looking robust right now....

 

This northern stream keeps trending more robust.  We are at 3-4" on Mansfield now.  Just over 3" at the base, so around 4" is probably a safe assumption 2,000ft higher. 

 

I'm liking where the RAP is heading with this today... each run gets a little wetter across the northern tier.

 

 

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Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.09” L.E.

 

There was a steady snow falling this at observations time this morning.  The flakes were in that middle size range, topping out around 8 mm in diameter, and the snow was fairly lofty at around 20 to 1 for the snow to water ratio.  I don’t see any notable changes in the BTV advisories map, but we’ve been bumped up another accumulation tier on the projected accumulations map to the 10-14” range:

 

08FEB13A.jpg

 

I see PF’s radar image above, and indeed the snow must be pouring down at the house based on the image from my web cam.  I cleared the board and set out my accumulation markers on the back deck at 6:00 A.M. observations time, and as of ~7:15 A.M. or so there was already more than 2 additional inches down (triangle blocks are 2-inch increments, tall block is 3-inch increments):

 

08FEB13B.jpg

 

I’m guessing the snow quality is in the range of what I measured this morning, so 4-5% H2O; that should make for some fine Champlain Powder™ skiing this weekend.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.09 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 21.1

Snow Density: 4.7% H2O

Temperature: 15.2 F

Sky: Snow (2-8 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

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Just noticed that the NWS upped the CPV to Winter Storm Warnings.  Only the NEK is left with the Watch.

 

I'm glad the forecast came in with higher amounts, as I was feeling a little jaded that the southern Champlain Valley was only expected to get 4 to 8 inches.

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4.5" measured at Peacham/Danville line as of 11 am.

 

Sounds good--probably similar at my hood but I don't know for sure as I'm at work down in Hanover. 

 

Just light snow here now.  We're sort of stuck in the middle.

 

I'm thinking the coastal later on is going to be a real scrape job for VT north and west of WRJ.

 

Very curious what the Euro will show....

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Sounds good--probably similar at my hood but I don't know for sure as I'm at work down in Hanover. 

 

Just light snow here now.  We're sort of stuck in the middle.

 

I'm thinking the coastal later on is going to be a real scrape job for VT north and west of WRJ.

 

Very curious what the Euro will show....

Do you still have the link for that web cam in Washington, VT?  That's pretty much right between our places and has a nice view.

 

Edit - Nevermind, g=found it myself but they look like they are not turned on.

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Do you still have the link for that web cam in Washington, VT?  That's pretty much right between our places and has a nice view.

 

Edit - Nevermind, g=found it myself but they look like they are not turned on.

 

Yeah, it was stuck at 11:36am on Tuesday 2/5 all day on Wednesday & Thursday.

 

This morning, it has faded to black, lol.

 

Kind of too bad because it's a good approx. for what's going on at my place.  Prob'ly good for you too...?

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Sounds good--probably similar at my hood but I don't know for sure as I'm at work down in Hanover.

Just light snow here now. We're sort of stuck in the middle.

I'm thinking the coastal later on is going to be a real scrape job for VT north and west of WRJ.

Very curious what the Euro will show....

It's all about where the bands set up, too early to say. I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere up here 50-100 miles north and west of where is anticipated significantly outperforms projections just based on where a rogue band sets up and sits.

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Yeah, it was stuck at 11:36am on Tuesday 2/5 all day on Wednesday & Thursday.

 

This morning, it has faded to black, lol.

 

Kind of too bad because it's a good approx. for what's going on at my place.  Prob'ly good for you too...?

Yeah, not too bad.  Snowmobile in that area frequently too. 

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