wxeyeNH Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is pretty much a non-event up here, lol. Easily half the QPF throughout New England, and it has a really hard time getting that precip up north. Do you think it will come around Powderfreak? Read a poster that said it is better in the long range. I thought it would trend with the other guidance but has been pretty stubborn. There should be a NW deformation band. Maybe with the GFS, if it was to verify that band would sit over me in Central NH. Who knows but I don't like the run, Guess you can't complain with all the upslope events you get why we on the other side of the spine miss out. Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Pack your camera Now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have an iPhone. Vids and pics will be up ASAP!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Do you think it will come around Powderfreak? Read a poster that said it is better in the long range. I thought it would trend with the other guidance but has been pretty stubborn. There should be a NW deformation band. Maybe with the GFS, if it was to verify that band would sit over me in Central NH. Who knows but I don't like the run, Guess you can't complain with all the upslope events you get why we on the other side of the spine miss out. Gene Not speaking for pf but as a forecaster, the extreme gfs solution I don't buy. I do think it'll amp back up for you NH guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not speaking for pf but as a forecaster, the extreme gfs solution I don't buy. I do think it'll amp back up for you NH guys. Yeah the NH/ME crowd is fine. Relax and enjoy the storm at this point. Should be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Curious that the BTV WRF is giving me 1" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Curious that the BTV WRF is giving me 1" QPF Probably wrong unfortunately. My 5-9" for st j is good I think. Maybe 6-10" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm going 6-8 max for me. Latest SREF's have trended a bit east. Just not our storm. But hey, that's potentially half a foot more than I have on the ground today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm going 6-8 max for me. Latest SREF's have trended a bit east. Just not our storm. But hey, that's potentially half a foot more than I have on the ground today. REasonable....though the WAA snows currently produced by that northern wave are looking robust right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow its just dumping out under this 30--35dbz band. I had almost 2" at home and there's about 2.25" up here at the base of Mansfield. Report is 3" upper mountain. More than I expected at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Almost 3" now at 6:10am at 1,500ft. A solid start to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 REasonable....though the WAA snows currently produced by that northern wave are looking robust right now.... This northern stream keeps trending more robust. We are at 3-4" on Mansfield now. Just over 3" at the base, so around 4" is probably a safe assumption 2,000ft higher. I'm liking where the RAP is heading with this today... each run gets a little wetter across the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 2-3" at the house. 16.7F And so it begins. Good luck all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 looks like 1.5 inches so far right outside the backdoor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.09” L.E. There was a steady snow falling this at observations time this morning. The flakes were in that middle size range, topping out around 8 mm in diameter, and the snow was fairly lofty at around 20 to 1 for the snow to water ratio. I don’t see any notable changes in the BTV advisories map, but we’ve been bumped up another accumulation tier on the projected accumulations map to the 10-14” range: I see PF’s radar image above, and indeed the snow must be pouring down at the house based on the image from my web cam. I cleared the board and set out my accumulation markers on the back deck at 6:00 A.M. observations time, and as of ~7:15 A.M. or so there was already more than 2 additional inches down (triangle blocks are 2-inch increments, tall block is 3-inch increments): I’m guessing the snow quality is in the range of what I measured this morning, so 4-5% H2O; that should make for some fine Champlain Powder™ skiing this weekend. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.9 inches New Liquid: 0.09 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 21.1 Snow Density: 4.7% H2O Temperature: 15.2 F Sky: Snow (2-8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 A touch over 2" at my house when I measured at 6:45. No wind to speak of so snow growth seemed pretty good. I'm a poor judge of visibility distance but it seemed to be somewhere between 1/2 and 3/4 of a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 3.8" as of 0630 this morning and still snowing hard. Picked the wrong night last night to sprain my ankle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 looks like 1.5 inches so far right outside the backdoor. Had 1.4" as of 7:15 at the house--started a little later on our side of he hills. East slope represent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just noticed that the NWS upped the CPV to Winter Storm Warnings. Only the NEK is left with the Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Our point forecast has us down for 3-5” today, and I don’t think there will be any problem reaching that since I can see that today’s total is already approaching 6” as of 9:00 A.M. That’s certainly a nice start to this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like the models from 48 hrs ago were MORE accurate w/r/t this northern stream. Going to bet that a strip from the High ADK thru Nor. VT gets 12-18 easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just noticed that the NWS upped the CPV to Winter Storm Warnings. Only the NEK is left with the Watch. I'm glad the forecast came in with higher amounts, as I was feeling a little jaded that the southern Champlain Valley was only expected to get 4 to 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It was a nice morning out there: http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/schussing-nemo-pt-1/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the >24" zone is slithering deeper into the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That area just southwest of AUG has been getting mauled for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 4.5" measured at Peacham/Danville line as of 11 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 4.5" measured at Peacham/Danville line as of 11 am. Sounds good--probably similar at my hood but I don't know for sure as I'm at work down in Hanover. Just light snow here now. We're sort of stuck in the middle. I'm thinking the coastal later on is going to be a real scrape job for VT north and west of WRJ. Very curious what the Euro will show.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sounds good--probably similar at my hood but I don't know for sure as I'm at work down in Hanover. Just light snow here now. We're sort of stuck in the middle. I'm thinking the coastal later on is going to be a real scrape job for VT north and west of WRJ. Very curious what the Euro will show.... Do you still have the link for that web cam in Washington, VT? That's pretty much right between our places and has a nice view. Edit - Nevermind, g=found it myself but they look like they are not turned on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Do you still have the link for that web cam in Washington, VT? That's pretty much right between our places and has a nice view. Edit - Nevermind, g=found it myself but they look like they are not turned on. Yeah, it was stuck at 11:36am on Tuesday 2/5 all day on Wednesday & Thursday. This morning, it has faded to black, lol. Kind of too bad because it's a good approx. for what's going on at my place. Prob'ly good for you too...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sounds good--probably similar at my hood but I don't know for sure as I'm at work down in Hanover. Just light snow here now. We're sort of stuck in the middle. I'm thinking the coastal later on is going to be a real scrape job for VT north and west of WRJ. Very curious what the Euro will show.... It's all about where the bands set up, too early to say. I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere up here 50-100 miles north and west of where is anticipated significantly outperforms projections just based on where a rogue band sets up and sits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah, it was stuck at 11:36am on Tuesday 2/5 all day on Wednesday & Thursday. This morning, it has faded to black, lol. Kind of too bad because it's a good approx. for what's going on at my place. Prob'ly good for you too...? Yeah, not too bad. Snowmobile in that area frequently too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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