NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS blows for NNE, speficially VT and NH. Seems more realistic. I think something in between the GFS and NAM will be the outcome. So somewhere between 4 and 30" Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 So somewhere between 4 and 30" Lol Well the 03 SREF plumes for St. J "only" ranged from 1.95 to 53 (Interestingly two were at 53") with a mean of 22. The 09 SREF has only 1 over 25 and ranges from 4 to 36 with a mean of 16. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think 4-8 is a safe bet. I might go to SE MASS with my room mate honestly haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well the 03 SREF plumes for St. J "only" ranged from 1.95 to 53 (Interestingly two were at 53") with a mean of 22. The 09 SREF has only 1 over 25 and ranges from 4 to 36 with a mean of 16. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE048.gif If you go to the sref plumes page you can choose with members you wanna take out. It helps make the mean look more realistic. It wouldn't surprise me to have the northern tier of VT gets an advisory with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 If you go to the sref plumes page you can choose with members you wanna take out. It helps make the mean look more realistic. It wouldn't surprise me to have the northern tier of VT gets an advisory with this. It can also make the results look less realistic if you take out all the low ones. I think your 4 to 8 call is very realistic for this area though I could see us overperform on the northern stream if the snow growth charts on the SREF are to be believed. They did quite well a couple of weeks ago with a system coming through though I forget which one it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It can also make the results look less realistic if you take out all the low ones. I think your 4 to 8 call is very realistic for this area though I could see us overperform on the northern stream if the snow growth charts on the SREF are to be believed. They did quite well a couple of weeks ago with a system coming through though I forget which one it was. I agree. FWIW, the 12z RPM is showing 18-24" for St J (my room mate has access). It's obnoxious and similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think 4-8 is a safe bet. I might go to SE MASS with my room mate honestly haha Why wouldn't you? for you youngins....don't miss a big storm like this. travel to it. You will have a blast. I once left a few thousand dollars on the table (when I didn't have that much to spare), to cancel a client engagement and stay in Philly for Jan 96. Boy did I not regret that. Go into a town or city like Boston or Portland where you can walk around, some restaurants will be open, etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Why wouldn't you? for you youngins....don't miss a big storm like this. travel to it. You will have a blast. I once left a few thousand dollars on the table (when I didn't have that much to spare), to cancel a client engagement and stay in Philly for Jan 96. Boy did I not regret that. Go into a town or city like Boston or Portland where you can walk around, some restaurants will be open, etc.... Thanks for the advice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree. FWIW, the 12z RPM is showing 18-24" for St J (my room mate has access). It's obnoxious and similar to the NAM. Lol @ the RPM, such an obnoxious model to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lol @ the RPM, such an obnoxious model to begin with. Agreed. 4-8" will be common across northern VT I think. I will update amounts after the Euro comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 models, shmodels. keep the faith! me being a little south helps with these coastals. I'll be happy with anything that gets the woods open for business. Its time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Why wouldn't you? for you youngins....don't miss a big storm like this. travel to it. You will have a blast. I once left a few thousand dollars on the table (when I didn't have that much to spare), to cancel a client engagement and stay in Philly for Jan 96. Boy did I not regret that. Go into a town or city like Boston or Portland where you can walk around, some restaurants will be open, etc.... Yeah I think big snowstorms are much different in big cities. I've experienced quite a few biggies up here (March 2011's 27" was the most recent), but there's something about being in an urban settling during a big snowstorm. We'll get ours again at some point...or at least a 15-30" upslope event or something, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Current thinking for VT/NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z euro slightly NW again... 0.5" BTV-Island Pond, VT 0.75" RUT-Whitefield, NH 1.00" Bennington-LEB-MWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z euro slightly NW again... 0.5" BTV-Island Pond, VT 0.75" RUT-Whitefield, NH 1.00" Bennington-LEB-MWN I told you, keep the faith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z euro slightly NW again... 0.5" BTV-Island Pond, VT 0.75" RUT-Whitefield, NH 1.00" Bennington-LEB-MWN how does CON area look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It seems a bit strange that the first office to pull the trigger on warnings in New England is Caribou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 how does CON area look? like 1.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Per Don Sutherland in the Blizzard thread: Maine:Augusta: 1.28”Bangor: 1.15”Caribou: 0.23”Houlton: 0.54”Lewiston: 0.06” Update: it is 1.43Portland: 1.78”New Hampshire:Berlin: 0.75”Concord: 1.64”Jaffrey: 1.86”Keene: 1.60”Lebanon: 1.04”Manchester: 1.89”Nashua: 2.00”Portsmouth: 2.14”Whitefield: 0.77”New York:Albany: 0.77”Vermont:Burlington: 0.42”Montpelier: 0.53”Rutland: 0.75”St. Johnsbury: 0.53” I assume that Lewiston figure is a typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ^ LOL or a jestful prank. I was just about to post those but klw beat me to it. Being halfway beterrn LEB & MPV, should be looking at 0.75" liquid here. I've kind of been figuring on 10-12" here for a day or so now and wilth 15:1s in the cards, just might about do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 like 1.75" well that's not too shabby thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Good call by BTV to issue advisories like I figured they would...good call IMO. My map looks good from before I think. Here is my final call, barring a NAM like solution. In Vermont- BTV: 6-10" Stowe: 6-10" Rutland: 8-12" Montpelier: 7-11" St. Johnsbury: 5-9" In New Hampshire- Littleton: 6-10" Berlin: 7-11" Lebanon:10-14" Plymouth: 14-18" In Maine- Fryeburg: 16-20" Lewiston: 18-24" Portland: 22-26" Jackman: 5-9" I am leaving here at 6pm for Middleboro, Mass where I am forecasting 24-30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 BTV's new maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Good call by BTV to issue advisories like I figured they would...good call IMO. My map looks good from before I think. Here is my final call, barring a NAM like solution. I am leaving here at 6pm for Middleboro, Mass where I am forecasting 24-30". In a WS Warning here in central VT now and thanks much for your thoughts for the region. Have fun down in MA. Can't wait to hear the stories and see photos out of SNE from this puppy. It's going to be a fun day for everyone regardless of what we all end up getting. I'm happy just getting some fresh pow on top of our crusty old glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah fully agree with BTV... good forecast out of them this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah I think big snowstorms are much different in big cities. I've experienced quite a few biggies up here (March 2011's 27" was the most recent), but there's something about being in an urban settling during a big snowstorm. We'll get ours again at some point...or at least a 15-30" upslope event or something, haha. Absolutely, I ran the numbers last February in a post pertaining to the big storm at the end of the month. My data suggest that there’s typically 1 to 2 of those events in the 40” range each season for the local mountains. Unless somehow tied to a storm that is region wide though, those events don’t get a fraction of the discussion that events get if they are affecting the big population centers. Fewer people are interested, and the localized nature seems to make them tougher to forecast. The biggest storm that I can recall so far this season topped out in the 2 to 2 ½ foot range back at the end of December, so we really haven’t had a whopper yet this season. The skiing was already nice on Sunday though, and with all the snow so far this week, the skiing should be great this weekend with whatever falls from this next event. And, it looks like there are more storms on the way next week as well. It is great getting all the analysis for this upcoming event since it is impacting the big population centers – both here and on The Weather Channel. I wish The Weather Channel was always like this, with model analyses and live coverage instead of all the documentary type TV shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks for posting the maps PF; we’re under a Winter Storm Warning now on the advisories map: I did notice that my area has been bumped up from the 6- 8” range in the earlier map to the 8-10” range in this latest version: If we can avoid getting into too much wind, that would be a nice blanket of snow for turns this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am leaving here at 6pm for Middleboro, Mass where I am forecasting 24-30". Pack your camera Now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18Z GFS just will not come around for us in NNE. Keeps the real good QPF to the SE. I really thought it would come in line. Otherwise all systems go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is pretty much a non-event up here, lol. Easily half the QPF throughout New England, and it has a really hard time getting that precip up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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