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NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III


klw

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It’s notable to see the Winter Storm Watches up almost wall to wall on the BTV map, it’s just that section of northern New Hampshire that features the Wind Chill Warning instead:

 

06FEB13A.jpg

 

I saw the BTV projected accumulations map posted earlier – certainly more than I would have thought, but we’ll have to see how it goes.  The graphics actually have this area getting into that 18-24” range:

 

06FEB13B.jpg

 

If something in the middle to top end of the point forecast here verified it would actually be the largest snowfall event of the season:

 

  • Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -6. Light southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Friday Snow. High near 22. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
  • Friday Night Snow, mainly before 5am. Low around 11. North wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

 

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Now...i don't discount the 18z GFS if it's followed by the 0z GFS. Which it was.  

BTV has MAJOR downward adjustment in snow totals....from 10-18 in NVT to 4-6. HA.  

Lets see what happens the rest of today. 

Correct me if im wrong, but they did the same thing prior to the pre new years storm. That ended up ok. Keep the faith.

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Projected snowfall amounts are lower now in the northern areas, and seem consistent with other forecasts I’ve heard:

 

Looks like BTV is riding the GFS...Ed made this call early yesterday.

 

The numbers seem generally in line with what I heard from Roger Hill in his early broadcast this morning (he was going with 3-7” on the front end of the system, and 3-6” with the back end), so BTV may have gone a touch lower in North-Central Vermont on their accumulation map, but a similar ballpark.  It should be interesting to see if changes need to be made in the next update.  If something like the 6Z NAM was to verify, numbers would probably be somewhat higher because it looks like it has the low pressure system closer to the coast with a more substantial slug of precipitation working its way through parts of Northern New England.

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The numbers seem generally in line with what I heard from Roger Hill in his early broadcast this morning (he was going with 3-7” on the front end of the system, and 3-6” with the back end), so BTV may have gone a touch lower in North-Central Vermont on their accumulation map, but a similar ballpark.  It should be interesting to see if changes need to be made in the next update.  If something like the 6Z NAM was to verify, numbers would probably be somewhat higher because it looks like it has the low pressure system closer to the coast with a more substantial slug of precipitation working its way through parts of Northern New England.

I will say the NAM is not the model to look at for QPF output in this situation. It has a notoriously wet bias. Both the GFS and EURO are agreeing on under at or just under 0.5" QPF through northern VT. It should be fluffy as hell, but that will only help so much (maybe 15:1 ratios?).

 

Like I've been saying, temper expectations. This just isn't our storm.

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I agree that lower totals in Nor. VT are warranted. 

The ADK still looks to do pretty well.  The regional WRF agrees with the .5 to .75 qpf figure...and that's reasonable for Nor. VT.  With 15:1 sno rations I think a nice 8 inches (with compaction) is a reasonable figure. Nor. ADK prob. in that 10-14 range. Just better dynamics over that way before the primary low strengthens. 

Still waiting on the 12z suite of models for a final call.  6z was WAY more progressive too...took the man storm way out to sea.  

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I agree that lower totals in Nor. VT are warranted. 

The ADK still looks to do pretty well.  The regional WRF agrees with the .5 to .75 qpf figure...and that's reasonable for Nor. VT.  With 15:1 sno rations I think a nice 8 inches (with compaction) is a reasonable figure. Nor. ADK prob. in that 10-14 range. Just better dynamics over that way before the primary low strengthens. 

Still waiting on the 12z suite of models for a final call.  6z was WAY more progressive too...took the man storm way out to sea.  

6z is flat out wrong...toss it.

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Not buying the 12z NAM for northern VT/NH. Way too amped up (shows 0.75-1" to Canadian border, 1.25" BTV-1V4). I honestly think much of N VT will get fooked between transfer of energy...I've seen it happen all to many times. 

 

If I was BTV WFO, I'd definitely stay conservative for the northern tier of VT (maybe 4-8") which they seem to be doing actually. 

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Not buying the 12z NAM for northern VT/NH. Way too amped up (shows 0.75-1" to Canadian border, 1.25" BTV-1V4). I honestly think much of N VT will get fooked between transfer of energy...I've seen it happen all to many times. 

 

If I was BTV WFO, I'd definitely stay conservative for the northern tier of VT (maybe 4-8") which they seem to be doing actually. 

 

Yeah, quite a solution for up here but I'm not sold either  Definitely seen this sort of thing before and also what actually happens for ground truth.

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Not buying the 12z NAM for northern VT/NH. Way too amped up (shows 0.75-1" to Canadian border, 1.25" BTV-1V4). I honestly think much of N VT will get fooked between transfer of energy...I've seen it happen all to many times. 

 

If I was BTV WFO, I'd definitely stay conservative for the northern tier of VT (maybe 4-8") which they seem to be doing actually. 

 

I haven't strayed from 4-8" at the ski area since Tuesday.... I hate where this is heading, but this is why I usually keep my job ;)  Especially when it was starting to turn to a media frenzy even up here and I was still holding at 4-8".  I hate trying to bank on ratios, too.  I just will not hype or amp snowfall amounts until I feel comfortable, and although some of those runs were fun to look at, this is a classic situation where we are caught between the primary and the secondary.  Plus in the ski business its better to go conservative so you aren't banking on something that isn't high-confidence... whereas for road treatments, maybe its better to go a little optimistic to be prepared? 

 

You could see this from days ago on the RH plots with the dry notch up here.

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I wonder what's up... maybe I'm getting jaded or something, but it honestly isn't bothering me to watch others get a HECS, lol. 

 

I am going to love watching this unfold anyway.  We always get ours at some point and its great for those coastal snow-starved areas.

 

For Dryslot and Dendrite crowds... BTV WRF goes absolutely ape-sh*t over you guys.  There's like a half inch of QPF that falls before this panel across most of NNE.  Too bad its a WRF which may be too amped but should be quite the wall of snow for you NH/ME posters southeast of the mountains.

 

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I wonder what's up... maybe I'm getting jaded or something, but it honestly isn't bothering me to watch others get a HECS, lol. 

 

I hear ya man.  I've never had the jackpot fetish and I've always prefered my snow to be of the light amount/maintenance variety.  After a deep synopitc base is set of course, ha-ha.

 

And, we can't discount the entertainment factor of a HSNE storm.

 

Sharpen your sticks.

 

forked-stick.jpg

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