J.Spin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It’s notable to see the Winter Storm Watches up almost wall to wall on the BTV map, it’s just that section of northern New Hampshire that features the Wind Chill Warning instead: I saw the BTV projected accumulations map posted earlier – certainly more than I would have thought, but we’ll have to see how it goes. The graphics actually have this area getting into that 18-24” range: If something in the middle to top end of the point forecast here verified it would actually be the largest snowfall event of the season: Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -6. Light southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Snow. High near 22. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Friday Night Snow, mainly before 5am. Low around 11. North wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 All i can say is i like where we are sitting. Have a meeting at 5 tomorrow and then i hit the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0.4" today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well, I said earlier I wasn't too thrilled with the 18z gfs, and I'm even less thrilled with the 0z...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Champlain Valley Surprise come Saturday morning? That's some wicked blocked flow if it holds. Only issue is winds are a little too northeast aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yuck 0 z GFS is lol sad days up here. From a nam run that gives us 30" to a GFS run that gives us 5"...what gives? Speak to us, Dr Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I will say this, though...the 0z gfs looks pretty damn good in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm ditching Plymouth. Headed back to ORH tomorrow night to hopefully get rocked with 24+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Now...i don't discount the 18z GFS if it's followed by the 0z GFS. Which it was. BTV has MAJOR downward adjustment in snow totals....from 10-18 in NVT to 4-6. HA. Lets see what happens the rest of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Now...i don't discount the 18z GFS if it's followed by the 0z GFS. Which it was. BTV has MAJOR downward adjustment in snow totals....from 10-18 in NVT to 4-6. HA. Lets see what happens the rest of today. Correct me if im wrong, but they did the same thing prior to the pre new years storm. That ended up ok. Keep the faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I’ve added the updated advisory and accumulations maps from the BTV NWS; winter storm warnings are up toward western New York State: Projected snowfall amounts are lower now in the northern areas, and seem consistent with other forecasts I’ve heard: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Projected snowfall amounts are lower now in the northern areas, and seem consistent with other forecasts I’ve heard: Looks like BTV is riding the GFS...Ed made this call early yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Gonna wait for 12z data before saying 'I told you Ed' to myself after upping amounts in northern VT. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Projected snowfall amounts are lower now in the northern areas, and seem consistent with other forecasts I’ve heard: Looks like BTV is riding the GFS...Ed made this call early yesterday. The numbers seem generally in line with what I heard from Roger Hill in his early broadcast this morning (he was going with 3-7” on the front end of the system, and 3-6” with the back end), so BTV may have gone a touch lower in North-Central Vermont on their accumulation map, but a similar ballpark. It should be interesting to see if changes need to be made in the next update. If something like the 6Z NAM was to verify, numbers would probably be somewhat higher because it looks like it has the low pressure system closer to the coast with a more substantial slug of precipitation working its way through parts of Northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The numbers seem generally in line with what I heard from Roger Hill in his early broadcast this morning (he was going with 3-7” on the front end of the system, and 3-6” with the back end), so BTV may have gone a touch lower in North-Central Vermont on their accumulation map, but a similar ballpark. It should be interesting to see if changes need to be made in the next update. If something like the 6Z NAM was to verify, numbers would probably be somewhat higher because it looks like it has the low pressure system closer to the coast with a more substantial slug of precipitation working its way through parts of Northern New England. I will say the NAM is not the model to look at for QPF output in this situation. It has a notoriously wet bias. Both the GFS and EURO are agreeing on under at or just under 0.5" QPF through northern VT. It should be fluffy as hell, but that will only help so much (maybe 15:1 ratios?). Like I've been saying, temper expectations. This just isn't our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Like I've been saying, temper expectations. This just isn't our storm. Watching others get n feet what we get in inches could lead to me using this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Watching others get n feet what we get in inches could lead to me using this: LOL right?? Snow lovers are greedy...myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree that lower totals in Nor. VT are warranted. The ADK still looks to do pretty well. The regional WRF agrees with the .5 to .75 qpf figure...and that's reasonable for Nor. VT. With 15:1 sno rations I think a nice 8 inches (with compaction) is a reasonable figure. Nor. ADK prob. in that 10-14 range. Just better dynamics over that way before the primary low strengthens. Still waiting on the 12z suite of models for a final call. 6z was WAY more progressive too...took the man storm way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree that lower totals in Nor. VT are warranted. The ADK still looks to do pretty well. The regional WRF agrees with the .5 to .75 qpf figure...and that's reasonable for Nor. VT. With 15:1 sno rations I think a nice 8 inches (with compaction) is a reasonable figure. Nor. ADK prob. in that 10-14 range. Just better dynamics over that way before the primary low strengthens. Still waiting on the 12z suite of models for a final call. 6z was WAY more progressive too...took the man storm way out to sea. 6z is flat out wrong...toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not buying the 12z NAM for northern VT/NH. Way too amped up (shows 0.75-1" to Canadian border, 1.25" BTV-1V4). I honestly think much of N VT will get fooked between transfer of energy...I've seen it happen all to many times. If I was BTV WFO, I'd definitely stay conservative for the northern tier of VT (maybe 4-8") which they seem to be doing actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not buying the 12z NAM for northern VT/NH. Way too amped up (shows 0.75-1" to Canadian border, 1.25" BTV-1V4). I honestly think much of N VT will get fooked between transfer of energy...I've seen it happen all to many times. If I was BTV WFO, I'd definitely stay conservative for the northern tier of VT (maybe 4-8") which they seem to be doing actually. Yeah, quite a solution for up here but I'm not sold either Definitely seen this sort of thing before and also what actually happens for ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 12 Z NAM clown map 30 for me 35 for Allenson. Looks about correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not buying the 12z NAM for northern VT/NH. Way too amped up (shows 0.75-1" to Canadian border, 1.25" BTV-1V4). I honestly think much of N VT will get fooked between transfer of energy...I've seen it happen all to many times. If I was BTV WFO, I'd definitely stay conservative for the northern tier of VT (maybe 4-8") which they seem to be doing actually. I haven't strayed from 4-8" at the ski area since Tuesday.... I hate where this is heading, but this is why I usually keep my job Especially when it was starting to turn to a media frenzy even up here and I was still holding at 4-8". I hate trying to bank on ratios, too. I just will not hype or amp snowfall amounts until I feel comfortable, and although some of those runs were fun to look at, this is a classic situation where we are caught between the primary and the secondary. Plus in the ski business its better to go conservative so you aren't banking on something that isn't high-confidence... whereas for road treatments, maybe its better to go a little optimistic to be prepared? You could see this from days ago on the RH plots with the dry notch up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wonder what's up... maybe I'm getting jaded or something, but it honestly isn't bothering me to watch others get a HECS, lol. I am going to love watching this unfold anyway. We always get ours at some point and its great for those coastal snow-starved areas. For Dryslot and Dendrite crowds... BTV WRF goes absolutely ape-sh*t over you guys. There's like a half inch of QPF that falls before this panel across most of NNE. Too bad its a WRF which may be too amped but should be quite the wall of snow for you NH/ME posters southeast of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Owow at the clown map. If anything approaching that comes true, I probably won't be posting for a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree with the above posts. As I said yesterday, I will be very happy with 8" and absolutely ecstatic with more. Of course there is always the weenie deep down inside thinking/hoping "What if the extreme solution actually happens?!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wonder what's up... maybe I'm getting jaded or something, but it honestly isn't bothering me to watch others get a HECS, lol. I hear ya man. I've never had the jackpot fetish and I've always prefered my snow to be of the light amount/maintenance variety. After a deep synopitc base is set of course, ha-ha. And, we can't discount the entertainment factor of a HSNE storm. Sharpen your sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12 Z NAM clown map 30 for me 35 for Allenson. Looks about correct. Has MBY in that one little 30-35" spot in Maine, which dooms its verifying. Also has 20"+ for N.Maine, while CAR's morning AFD said that the St.John Valley might wind up with very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS blows for NNE, speficially VT and NH. Seems more realistic. I think something in between the GFS and NAM will be the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, 12Z just came out from what I can tell. Rather dry compared to the NAM. Stated as an understatement, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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