polski Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If wind is very high Bretton Woods is the least likely to be affected. You could drive there during the day if Attitash happens to go on hold. I'll say from experience though that in very deep new snow, there isn't much terrain at BW steep enough to get you through it. Little is more frustrating than constantly getting stuck in deep-and-not-steep. That said, maybe not so much of a problem if ratios are high, and/or if totals there aren't much more than a foot. Only other meager advice I can offer is if wind swings out of NW as the coastal departs, Cannon's aspect seems to make it immune. I skied there the day after Valentines Day 2007 in 26" of wind affected snow (5-6' natural whales up top) and it was wide open with only the very occasional gust when everything else in the Whites except BW was on wind hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I really appreciate your attention to NNE, ct. Hard to feel the love on the other threads...lol! No worries. I'm at Lyndon State in VT for met so I have to pay attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'll say from experience though that in very deep new snow, there isn't much terrain at BW steep enough to get you through it. Little is more frustrating than constantly getting stuck in deep-and-not-steep. That said, maybe not so much of a problem if ratios are high, and/or if totals there aren't much more than a foot. Only other meager advice I can offer is if wind swings out of NW as the coastal departs, Cannon's aspect seems to make it immune. I skied there the day after Valentines Day 2007 in 26" of wind affected snow (5-6' natural whales up top) and it was wide open with only the very occasional gust when everything else in the Whites except BW was on wind hold. I was thinking the same thing about pitch, but Bretton Woods has that new T-Bar that supposedly reaches some better terrain. Also it's about 1/2 the distance as it is to Cannon from Attitash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 BTV map is beatuful and way more than I thought they'd start with...wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ekster clearly doesn't like me and doesn't think I deserve to have any pale pink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm taking my foot and running. Holy sh*t didn't expect that...even though the Euro is great for all of NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 We've got a Winter Storm Watch. Not sure it verifies but whatever. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ007&warncounty=VTC005&firewxzone=VTZ007&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT244 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-071000-/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0001.130208T0000Z-130209T1200Z/NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON244 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT.* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW.* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK THURSDAY EVENING...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.* IMPACTS...AREA ROADWAYS WILL BE HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES ON FRIDAY.* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 2 BELOW TO 12 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS AROUND 20.* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We've got a Winter Storm Watch. Not sure it verifies but whatever. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ007&warncounty=VTC005&firewxzone=VTZ007&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT244 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-071000-/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0001.130208T0000Z-130209T1200Z/NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON244 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT.* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW.* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK THURSDAY EVENING...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.* IMPACTS...AREA ROADWAYS WILL BE HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES ON FRIDAY.* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 2 BELOW TO 12 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS AROUND 20.* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW. I think at least 6-12" verifies with latest Euro guidance. 1.1" qpf at St Johnsbury...with 15-20:1 ratios is a solid 15-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 System down by the gulf is looking like it is getting together nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z NAM continues to be a nice event up here. It also has the ECM's enhanced QPF pretty far NW. NAM would be huge in the northern CPV, lol. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_072_precip_p48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 QPF looks to range from 0.65"-1.20" depending on what you look at...should be good for 15:1 ratios at least, so seems logical to say 9"+ is pretty likely across all of northern VT, with many places possibly topping 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 From BTV...as expected. EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATETHURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER SNOWWILL FALL ACROSS NORTHERN NY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY...AND IN VERMONT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BLEND OFMODEL QPF SUGGESTS AMOUNTS OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH WILL BE COMMON. WITHRATIOS OF AT LEAST 15:1 EXPECTED...THIS SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD SNOWAMOUNTS OF 8-14 INCHES. LOWEST AMOUNTS MAY WIND UP BEING INNORTHEAST VERMONT DUE SHADOWING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 For for the influx of posts, but here is my latest thinking for all of northern VT, NH, and SW ME: In Vermont- BTV: 8-12" Stowe: 12-16" Rutland: 12-16" Montpelier: 10-14" St. Johnsbury: 8-12" In New Hampshire- Littleton: 6-10" Berlin: 8-12" Lebanon:12-16" Plymouth: 14-18" In Maine- Fryeburg: 14-18" Lewiston: 18-24" Portland: 24-30" Jackman: 6-10" I will update these throughout the next few days. I can really see these totals going either way (up or down) so stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 I love the 15Z SREF plumes for St. J. Mean is 19.6 with a Max of 51.96. Once you take out the 3 highest the mean is still int he 14/ 15 inch range. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130206&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=1V4&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=43.94512823649418&mLON=-73.17210830078125&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 For for the influx of posts, but here is my latest thinking for all of northern VT, NH, and SW ME: In Vermont- BTV: 8-12" Stowe: 12-16" Rutland: 12-16" Montpelier: 10-14" St. Johnsbury: 8-12" In New Hampshire- Littleton: 6-10" Berlin: 8-12" Lebanon:12-16" Plymouth: 14-18" In Maine- Fryeburg: 14-18" Lewiston: 18-24" Portland: 24-30" Jackman: 6-10" I will update these throughout the next few days. I can really see these totals going either way (up or down) so stay tuned! Thanks for sticking your neck out with those details. MBY is about 1/3 the distance from LEW to Jackman, so I'll interpolate accordingly (and hope for one of those killer bands noted in GYX's AFD.) +SN at 10F with strong winds would make for an interesting Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Oh and 4" fell today at 1500ft with 6" at 3000ft+. There's an inch or less in town and then you drive up to advisory level snow in the parking lot of the ski area haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm still holding with 7-12" here and across the area through 00z... I really hate banking on ratios to verify a snow forecast. Though I like about 0.75" QPF here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom MA wx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Oh and 4" fell today at 1500ft with 6" at 3000ft+. There's an inch or less in town and then you drive up to advisory level snow in the parking lot of the ski area haha. Hey pf Im heading up to Stowe for the weekend from penn state with our ski club. I imagine conditions have dramatically improved over the last week with todays snow and the surprise 4-7 a couple days ago. Hopefully we make it up fine on friday lol. I'm absolutely pumped to ski on what looks like 14 or so inches of powder on saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not thrilled with the 18z gfs. Seems to weaken the northern system quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not thrilled with the 18z gfs. Seems to weaken the northern system quite a bit. Ummmm...its the 18z GFS. I'm going with a widespread 8-14 in the ADK and Nor. VT. A few higher elevations prob. 12-16 range is reasonable. Fluff compacts so ratios of 15 or so to 1 don't mean a ton for me when it all verifies out. It helps, yes. But like PF I don't bank on it. The interesting zone is going to be the Nor. ADK where some places - Lyon Mtn maybe- could pop into the 20 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ummmm...its the 18z GFS. I'm going with a widespread 8-14 in the ADK and Nor. VT. A few higher elevations prob. 12-16 range is reasonable. Fluff compacts so ratios of 15 or so to 1 don't mean a ton for me when it all verifies out. It helps, yes. But like PF I don't bank on it. The interesting zone is going to be the Nor. ADK where some places - Lyon Mtn maybe- could pop into the 20 range. Well, I keep seeing people in the other threads getting pounded for keeping alive the idea that the off runs are the garbage they once were. Anyway...it was just one comment on one run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It would be a lock if I were back up there again visiting. I am definitely jealous. I will have to relish in my Christmas visit and the thundersnow here last month on my mini chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Just looked at the GFS and it looks like after this storm 2 more chances of additional storminess next week so maybe we can start building up some substancial snowpack! It's out in fantasy land but next Thursday has a 980mb low going just to our SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hey pf Im heading up to Stowe for the weekend from penn state with our ski club. I imagine conditions have dramatically improved over the last week with todays snow and the surprise 4-7 a couple days ago. Hopefully we make it up fine on friday lol. I'm absolutely pumped to ski on what looks like 14 or so inches of powder on saturday! Nice! Yeah conditions are much better than they were at the start of the week. This recent snow is our upslope cold smoke fluff, so it doesn't pack down as well as synoptic snow would, but that should change on Saturday. The groomed runs are getting real nice with the new snow but its dust on crust (albeit deeper than dusting) on ungroomed trails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well, I keep seeing people in the other threads getting pounded for keeping alive the idea that the off runs are the garbage they once were. Anyway...it was just one comment on one run... It's certainly a concern but I think most models have that northern stream wave a little juicier. We aren't getting touched by the coastal but that northern stream seems robust. But that's why I'm hesitant to go big up here. If everything goes to the coast too early we could be in a screw zone...while some models keep a better moisture connection across NNY and NVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's certainly a concern but I think most models have that northern stream wave a little juicier. We aren't getting touched by the coastal but that northern stream seems robust. But that's why I'm hesitant to go big up here. If everything goes to the coast too early we could be in a screw zone...while some models keep a better moisture connection across NNY and NVT.We are getting touched by the coastal though. Without the dynamics and extreme lift associated with the phase there's nothing to wring the moisture out and expand the coastals precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Saw that on the GFS too--I'm sure we'll do just fine unless the coastal heads futher east than current thinking. Crazy to watch these model runs though for SNE. It's going to be a pretty wild day one way or another. One thing I would say for sure is that tomorrow's gon' be a banner day for grocery stores and gas stations from Maine to NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We are getting touched by the coastal though. Without the dynamics and extreme lift associated with the phase there's nothing to wring the moisture out and expand the coastals precip shield. Yeah I guess I phrased that wrong...maybe the CCB and comma head is what I meant. I mean on all RH and lift plots, once that coastal really gets going we are sort of done with the real accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ekster clearly doesn't like me and doesn't think I deserve to have any pale pink. Yeah WTF! RPM had a dry hole up here in it's run. I hope it is not another one of those screw jobs. Uggghhhhh. 14-18 is nice but not as nice when 30 miles away is getting 24 or 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.01” L.E. There was 0.4” of snow on the board when I got home today – it had definitely settled and/or some sublimed, but either way it was still quite dry at 2.5% H2O. Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 19.9 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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