wxeyeNH Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Wow over 2" QPF for Concord NH. So the good stuff makes it north! Great news for those areas that do not get all the upslope stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 0.75" back to BTV across Canadian border 1.00" KRUT-1V4-BML 1.5" Bennington-Plymouth-interior ME 2.0" Greenfield-Concord-Gray,ME 2.5" eastern Mass up through coastal NH and PWM Keep in mind it'll be -8C or lower through out the storm up here...that'd be good for some decent ratios in NNE. This is one Euro run though, so keep expectations in check especially up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 we are still 3 days out. the pattern as of late is for these things to drift south and east as it gets closer to game time. But historically dont they trend north and west? isnt this what happened with the big storm before new years? It seems like in years past the model trends do often come north & west but this year has certainly been the other way around. Wait & watch and try like hell to get the plow working again. ctsnowstorm--thanks for the numbers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 0.75" back to BTV across Canadian border 1.00" KRUT-1V4-BML 1.5" Bennington-Plymouth-interior ME 2.0" Greenfield-Concord-Gray,ME 2.5" eastern Mass up through coastal NH and PWM Keep in mind it'll be -8C or lower through out the storm up here...that'd be good for some decent ratios in NNE. This is one Euro run though, so keep expectations in check especially up this way. Thank you. joy to the world. please, no mention of that lakes cutter for next week. what a buzz kill. first we pull this bad boy NW then we'll push that sucker SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 0.75" back to BTV across Canadian border 1.00" KRUT-1V4-BML 1.5" Bennington-Plymouth-interior ME 2.0" Greenfield-Concord-Gray,ME 2.5" eastern Mass up through coastal NH and PWM Keep in mind it'll be -8C or lower through out the storm up here...that'd be good for some decent ratios in NNE. This is one Euro run though, so keep expectations in check especially up this way. I had mentioned to a couple folks on another board that that high position is always concerning for up here, That system is only going to get so far north before escaping ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 the trend is our friend folks. I fully expect this to end up a rte. 128 north into northern new england special when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Heh, I saw on the GFS what looked like a cutter in the making for next week. Oh the irony! And how could we forget? Happy National Weatherperson's Day all, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I had mentioned to a couple folks on another board that that high position is always concerning for up here, That system is only going to get so far north before escaping ENE Yes. I think many see 4-8"ish from this with Maine seeing more, but folks should temper any expectations for more than 8" until we are really within 48 hours. the trend is our friend folks. I fully expect this to end up a rte. 128 north into northern new england special when all is said and done. This is a different setup with a strong high to our north. Previous systems did not have this. I have a feeling this will be a SNE special, with far-reaching effects all the way to the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 FYI- I'm going to keep most of my NNE thoughts in here so they don't get jumbled in with 1,000 other posts in the other thread haha...so if you have NNE specific questions ask them in here...I'm sure Dendrite and OceanStWx will notice this and answer questions here as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 0.75" back to BTV across Canadian border 1.00" KRUT-1V4-BML 1.5" Bennington-Plymouth-interior ME 2.0" Greenfield-Concord-Gray,ME 2.5" eastern Mass up through coastal NH and PWM Thank you so much for responding. We finally have thick ice on the lakes but the snowmobile industry is really hurting in much of NNE. If we can get a foot we can finally open the trails. I have seen these systems trend north so many times so hopefully we will all get a good dump. 3 days away is an eternity so I will keep my expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 0.75" back to BTV across Canadian border 1.00" KRUT-1V4-BML 1.5" Bennington-Plymouth-interior ME 2.0" Greenfield-Concord-Gray,ME 2.5" eastern Mass up through coastal NH and PWM Thank you so much for responding. We finally have thick ice on the lakes but the snowmobile industry is really hurting in much of NNE. If we can get a foot we can finally open the trails. I have seen these systems trend north so many times so hopefully we will all get a good dump. 3 days away is an eternity so I will keep my expectations low. I hear ya, man. I was over in Maine last weekend and there wasn't enough to ride open. So miserable. But yeah, the farther east and south you are in NNE, the happier you'll be in this set up...but even near BTV 4-8" is a major deal this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I hear ya, man. I was over in Maine last weekend and there wasn't enough to ride open. So miserable. But yeah, the farther east and south you are in NNE, the happier you'll be in this set up...but even near BTV 4-8" is a major deal this season. If you dont mind me asking....seems lake placid/saranac lake still do ok on the euro....is is from the northern energy still, or mostly just the large precip shield from the coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I hear ya, man. I was over in Maine last weekend and there wasn't enough to ride open. So miserable. But yeah, the farther east and south you are in NNE, the happier you'll be in this set up...but even near BTV 4-8" is a major deal this season. What VTRANS zones are your forecasting for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 FYI- I'm going to keep most of my NNE thoughts in here so they don't get jumbled in with 1,000 other posts in the other thread haha...so if you have NNE specific questions ask them in here...I'm sure Dendrite and OceanStWx will notice this and answer questions here as well! thank you. Its really appreciated. driving up with the family from westchester to mrv. if it looks like school will be cancelled on friday, we'll head up thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 What VTRANS zones are your forecasting for? Tomorrow I have Bennington-Brattleboro-WRJ....friday I actually Montpelier-St. J- Newport. If you dont mind me asking....seems lake placid/saranac lake still do ok on the euro....is is from the northern energy still, or mostly just the large precip shield from the coastal? They'll see snows break out earlier for sure with the northern energy. The coastal should have a broad shield of moderate snow out toward you guys. Heaviest will be centered on SNE and CNE though I think. Still a ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 My zone forecast has "snow may be heavy at times" for Friday night. Not sure I've seen 7th period enhanced wording before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 18z GFS still with 0.5-1.0" QPF around the region, regardless of the evolution, a warning criteria storm seems to be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 18z GFS still with 0.5-1.0" QPF around the region, regardless of the evolution, a warning criteria storm seems to be in the cards. This. I think it's safe to say 4-8" is possible. Any more than that, you either have huge balls or are wishcasting...especially northwest of like KRUT-KLEB-KIZG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This. I think it's safe to say 4-8" is possible. Any more than that, you either have huge balls or are wishcasting...especially northwest of like KRUT-KLEB-KIZGI will say the cold should help us and there's a relatively large area of deep favorable snow growth across CNE/NNE. It won't be upslope quality but would help in a 0.4-0.8" QPF situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I will say the cold should help us and there's a relatively large area of deep favorable snow growth across CNE/NNE. It won't be upslope quality but would help in a 0.4-0.8" QPF situation. Yeah, aloft should actually be quite prime for 15:1 to 20:1 ratios, so even if we see an average of 0.5" qpf we could see low end warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS isn't all that "great" for the north country...probably on the order of 3-6" for the NEK, 4-8" elsewhere...I'm very curious to see what the Euro shows. FWIW, the GFS is slightly farther west than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 0z euro not impressive for areas north of RUT-LEB-PLY. Under 0.5" qpf from BTV-MPV-1V4 northward. Still possible low end warning but this is why expectations are tempered on the northern fringes of systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There was a sharp cutoff in the storm before new years right around 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 0z euro not impressive for areas north of RUT-LEB-PLY. Under 0.5" qpf from BTV-MPV-1V4 northward. Still possible low end warning but this is why expectations are tempered on the northern fringes of systems You know there will be a renegade band that sets up somewhere up here with 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You know there will be a renegade band that sets up somewhere up here with 12"+.Yeah. Not here. First call...3-6" for BTV. 4-8" NEK. 8+ possible south of RUT-LEB-PLY-IZG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah. Not here. First call...3-6" Unfortunately, that sounds reasonable. I think a little further south we could possibly do better and the NWS says 4-8" for my forecast. It would make me happy if we could hit the upper end of that range and I would be ecstatic if we reach 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Unfortunately, that sounds reasonable. I think a little further south we could possibly do better and the NWS says 4-8" for my forecast. It would make me happy if we could hit the upper end of that range and I would be ecstatic if we reach 10". You'll probably be ok for 4-8" actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If you dont mind me asking....seems lake placid/saranac lake still do ok on the euro....is is from the northern energy still, or mostly just the large precip shield from the coastal? The Nor. ADK seem to be doing pretty well run to run as the old northern stream low bring some enhanced precip their way BEFORE the coastal low takes over. A little WAA type snows to the ADK. Overall I'm thinking 5-10 for the Mtns. Good snow growth will really help. Honestly if these storms didn't phase I think that number would be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Nor. ADK seem to be doing pretty well run to run as the old northern stream low bring some enhanced precip their way BEFORE the coastal low takes over. A little WAA type snows to the ADK. Overall I'm thinking 5-10 for the Mtns. Good snow growth will really help. Honestly if these storms didn't phase I think that number would be higher. Thats what im rooting for ill be in lake placid this weekend, want snow up there, plus i dont want to miss a bomb at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Any upslope sig as storm departs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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