NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III

[klw]

1.2 inches of fluff this morning.  I tried to blow it off the cars but resorted to the brush instead.

[j24vt]

0.4" at 7am this morning.

[powderfreak]

Wow... 6.5" so far at 3,000ft and still snowing.  Powder morning.

 

Smuggs reporting 6-10" overnight now, too.

[ctsnowstorm628]

This is the week we turn things around. Stay the course.

I wouldn't count on it outside the mountains.

[Hitman]

I wouldn't count on it outside the mountains.

well the northern greens are where I'm focused and I'll count my ignorance as bliss.  c'mon man, have a little hope and faith.

in all seriousness though, I know there is no scientific reason to believe that friday will turn into something significant.  There is every reason to believe the pattern over the last month will continue in all its awfulness.  but I need a little fantasy to get me through the work week.  So i've cleared my calender for friday and am laying the groundwork to drive up thursday night.  I'm doing my part.  alls we need is mother nature, Ullr or whatever to grace us with a long overdue surprise on the upside so we can put this tawdry mess behind us.  That's my story and I'm sticking with it.

[powderfreak]

Looks like we'll end up with just over 4" at 1,500ft and right at 7" at 3,000ft from this event.

 

Not bad considering the village got 0.5-1.0" a few miles down the road.

 

It is still snowing (and MVL is still showing -SN) but is now pretty much at the noise level (ie flurries with some sun showing through).

 

The NOAA Mansfield cam from BTV still showing our snow cloud sitting tight over the Spine.

 

 

 

[J.Spin]

I put together the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas so far today.  Not everyone has updated since the early morning reports though, so if anything changes I’ll update the list.  Clearly the northern resorts were favored in this event, although it’s surprising to see Burke come in with nothing at all new; perhaps being on the spine of the Greens was important for this one:

 

Jay Peak: 5”

Burke: 0”

Smuggler’s Notch: 10”

Stowe: 7”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Sugarbush: 2”

Middlebury: 1”

Pico: 2”

Killington: 2”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: 0”

Magic Mountain: T”

Stratton: T”

Mount Snow: 1”

 

Checking on my web cam, it looks like we finished off with another 0.5” - 0.6” with this morning’s snow, so the event total is around 2” at the house.

[Nittany88]

I put together the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas so far today.  Not everyone has updated since the early morning reports though, so if anything changes I’ll update the list.  Clearly the northern resorts were favored in this event, although it’s surprising to see Burke come in with nothing at all new; perhaps being on the spine of the Greens was important for this one:

 

Jay Peak: 5”

Burke: 0”

Smuggler’s Notch: 10”

Stowe: 7”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Sugarbush: 2”

Middlebury: 1”

Pico: 2”

Killington: 2”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: 0”

Magic Mountain: T”

Stratton: T”

Mount Snow: 1”

 

Checking on my web cam, it looks like we finished off with another 0.5” - 0.6” with this morning’s snow, so the event total is around 2” at the house.

Flow was blocked. Froude numbers down between 0.6-0.8.

[powderfreak]

Flow was blocked. Froude numbers down between 0.6-0.8.

 

I was wondering what they were... thanks.  Snowfall was very elevation dependent, with east slope accumulations ranging from 4" at 1,500ft to 7" at 3,000ft and even higher amounts in that 3,000-4,000ft band.  Smugglers Notch Ski Resort also logged 6-10" of new snow last night. 

 

The skiing was quite nice with the fresh fluff.

 

This is under 2,600ft:

 

 

Higher up in elevation at 3,000-3,600ft the snow was almost knee deep in places.  And the groomers all said it pretty much fell in a 6-8 hour period so it must've been dumping heavily at times last night up here.

 

 

 

 

 

[Nittany88]

I was wondering what they were... thanks.  Snowfall was very elevation dependent, with east slope accumulations ranging from 4" at 1,500ft to 7" at 3,000ft and even higher amounts in that 3,000-4,000ft band.  Smugglers Notch Ski Resort also logged 6-10" of new snow last night. 

 

The skiing was quite nice with the fresh fluff.

 

This is under 2,600ft:

 

 

Higher up in elevation at 3,000-3,600ft the snow was almost knee deep in places.  And the groomers all said it pretty much fell in a 6-8 hour period so it must've been dumping heavily at times last night up here.

 

 

 

 

 

Nice shots!

 

Yeah the Climate Maps from this morning show the blocking signature quite well, highlighting the spine and western slopes (1-4"), with very little just east (even just 0.5" in Stowe Village).

 

[mreaves]

Just returned from my county snowmobile meeting and predictably the mood was a bit glum. I was surprised to hear one of the older guys talking about what the models were showing for the next week or so, even pointing out how the Euro was on its own for Friday. Never underestimate an old Vermontah!

[J.Spin]

Flow was blocked. Froude numbers down between 0.6-0.8.

 

It wasn’t surprising to see Bolton report a couple more inches with those Froude Numbers – revised north to south snowfall list is below.  Clearly a Northern Greens spine special based on the distribution; the numbers fall right off south of the I-89/Route 2/Winooski corridor and east of the spine:

 

Jay Peak: 5”

Burke: 0”

Smuggler’s Notch: 10”

Stowe: 7”

Bolton Valley: 6”

Mad River Glen: 2”

Sugarbush: 2”

Middlebury: 1”

Pico: 2”

Killington: 2”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: 0”

Magic Mountain: T”

Stratton: T”

Mount Snow: 1”

 

We did pick up a final 0.6” here at the house as monitored by web cam, but it was so light and dry that I couldn’t get any water content on it because it had generally sublimed or been blown away by the time of this evening’s analysis.

[CardinalWinds]

What a weenie run, the 0Z GFS.

[powderfreak]

Nice shots!

 

Yeah the Climate Maps from this morning show the blocking signature quite well, highlighting the spine and western slopes (1-4"), with very little just east (even just 0.5" in Stowe Village).

 

 

You know these are some of my favorite events... when there's <1" in the village but the ski terrain gets a near warning amount of snow   There was absolutely no one skiing today.  The 12 people that were there had the whole mountain filled with powder.  It honestly was probably the most fun day I've had up there this season.  Skiing lap after lap of powder with the faithful that come out regardless of conditions.

 

It actually reminded me of that opening paragraph in the Froude study that mentions some events only the ski resorts see, with very little falling in the towns on either side.  And I know the Mansfield Co-Op only came in with 3.5" which is pretty much a crime to anyone who skied today, lol.  Although by 4pm this stuff was settling fast, too.  The most accumulation was like right at 9am when the more steady stuff tapered off.  Had to be 40:1 fluff.

[Hitman]

Oh ye of little faith, what says you all about the overnight model runs?

Keep the faith. This is the week.

[powderfreak]

BTV with a nice, encouraging discussion from Mr Taber...

 

FIRST SYSTEM CRNTLY ON
WATER VAPOR ACRS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WL EJECT POTENT S/W ENERGY
ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS
LOCATED ACRS NORTHERN MEXICO. BOTH PIECES OF ENERGY WL RACE ACRS
THE CONUS...BUT NEVER REALLY PHASE TOGETHER UNTIL OFF THE NE COAST
ON SATURDAY...WHICH WL KEEP HEAVIEST QPF SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. HOWEVER...ECMWF/GEM AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH POTENT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTERACTING JUST ENOUGH WITH
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS FROM SOUTHERN SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A MODERATE
QPF/SNOWFALL ACRS OUR CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE
BARREL LOW PRES STRUCTURE WITH 1ST LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE 2ND LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR THE HATTERAS COAST LINE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRES QUICKLY DEEPENS TO 987MB NEAR
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 12Z SAT...WITH WEAK INVERTED TROF FEATURE
ACRS OUR CWA. MODELS SHOW GOOD DEEP 850 TO 500MB RH
PROFILES...FAVORABLE 25H JET DYNAMICS...STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...AND SOME 850 TO 700MB FGEN FORCING ACRS OUR CWA.
THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD RH IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...WL RESULT IN A MODERATE SNOW EVENT. THINKING ADVISORY/LOW
END WARNING TYPE EVENT FOR OUR CWA. NAM/GFS/GEM MODEL QPF IS BTWN
0.25 AND 0.50"...WHILE ECMWF CONTS TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE BTWN 0.50
AND 0.75"...AND IS MUCH SLOWER/DEEPER WITH TROF AMPLIFICATION AND
COASTAL LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN...FAST WESTERLY FLW AND NO
CLOSED 5/7H CIRCULATION FEEL THE ECMWF IS A BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL. WL TRIM BACK QPF AND MENTION
VALUES BTWN 0.35 AND 0.55...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE SNOW
GROWTH...EXPECT RATIO`S AROUND 15 TO 1...RESULTING IN EARLY
ESTIMATES FOR SNOW OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IN HWO.

[doug1991]

Just returned from my county snowmobile meeting and predictably the mood was a bit glum. I was surprised to hear one of the older guys talking about what the models were showing for the next week or so, even pointing out how the Euro was on its own for Friday. Never underestimate an old Vermontah!

oh boy i hope he is right. You know its bad when your sled has more trailer miles on it than riding miles. We though last season was bad.

[SJonesWX]

oh boy i hope he is right. You know its bad when your sled has more trailer miles on it than riding miles. We though last season was bad.

last year I did 0.00001 miles. so far this year I have done 12. A banner year!

[adk]

BTV with a nice, encouraging discussion from Mr Taber...

 

FIRST SYSTEM CRNTLY ON

WATER VAPOR ACRS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WL EJECT POTENT S/W ENERGY

ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS

LOCATED ACRS NORTHERN MEXICO. BOTH PIECES OF ENERGY WL RACE ACRS

THE CONUS...BUT NEVER REALLY PHASE TOGETHER UNTIL OFF THE NE COAST

ON SATURDAY...WHICH WL KEEP HEAVIEST QPF SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR

CWA. HOWEVER...ECMWF/GEM AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT

WITH POTENT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTERACTING JUST ENOUGH WITH

MOISTURE/DYNAMICS FROM SOUTHERN SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A MODERATE

QPF/SNOWFALL ACRS OUR CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE

BARREL LOW PRES STRUCTURE WITH 1ST LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH

NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE 2ND LOW

DEVELOPS NEAR THE HATTERAS COAST LINE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN

STREAM ENERGY ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRES QUICKLY DEEPENS TO 987MB NEAR

THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 12Z SAT...WITH WEAK INVERTED TROF FEATURE

ACRS OUR CWA. MODELS SHOW GOOD DEEP 850 TO 500MB RH

PROFILES...FAVORABLE 25H JET DYNAMICS...STRONG Q-VECTOR

CONVERGENCE...AND SOME 850 TO 700MB FGEN FORCING ACRS OUR CWA.

THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD RH IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH

REGION...WL RESULT IN A MODERATE SNOW EVENT. THINKING ADVISORY/LOW

END WARNING TYPE EVENT FOR OUR CWA. NAM/GFS/GEM MODEL QPF IS BTWN

0.25 AND 0.50"...WHILE ECMWF CONTS TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE BTWN 0.50

AND 0.75"...AND IS MUCH SLOWER/DEEPER WITH TROF AMPLIFICATION AND

COASTAL LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN...FAST WESTERLY FLW AND NO

CLOSED 5/7H CIRCULATION FEEL THE ECMWF IS A BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF

AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL. WL TRIM BACK QPF AND MENTION

VALUES BTWN 0.35 AND 0.55...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE SNOW

GROWTH...EXPECT RATIO`S AROUND 15 TO 1...RESULTING IN EARLY

ESTIMATES FOR SNOW OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS FRIDAY

INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING

SNOWFALL IN HWO.

It does look favorable friday into saturday.  Models have been playing around a bit with how to handle these two pieces of energy. There is certainly plenty of discussion elsewhere on this board regarding the competing solution so I'll leave that out. 

Personally I favor the lesser/weaker GFS solution. 

[powderfreak]

It may not look like this down in the villages and valleys... but at least it looks like winter again in the northern Greens thanks to yesterday's surprise upslope event.

 

[ctsnowstorm628]

I think someone in NNE may get fooked with this upcoming event in between the mega bomb going to the south, and the northern stream storms. I am pretty confident in some snow Friday though.

[Hitman]

It does look favorable friday into saturday.  Models have been playing around a bit with how to handle these two pieces of energy. There is certainly plenty of discussion elsewhere on this board regarding the competing solution so I'll leave that out. 

Personally I favor the lesser/weaker GFS solution. 

 

with respect to the official storm thread, those guys are all about SNE and sometimes it takes me 3 pages to figure out what any of it means for NNE/greens.  and while they know a heck a lot more than I do (which is basically 'nothing), they are not too receptive to queries from "outsiders".

I have definitely noticed a healthy amount of skepticism about the euro solution.  Is this based on data/meteorlogy or more because we have been burned by the euro quite a few times in the last month or so????

 

anyway, I'm getting pumped.  we didnt get nearly as much in the mrv from the upslope as the stowe area, but I figure anything more than 6" of dense snow and the woods will be back in play.

[Hitman]

I think someone in NNE may get fooked with this upcoming event in between the mega bomb going to the south, and the northern stream storms. I am pretty confident in some snow Friday though.

we are still 3 days out.  the pattern as of late is for these things to drift south and east as it gets closer to game time.  But historically dont they trend north and west?  isnt this what happened with the big storm before new years?

[ctsnowstorm628]

we are still 3 days out. the pattern as of late is for these things to drift south and east as it gets closer to game time. But historically dont they trend north and west? isnt this what happened with the big storm before new years?

It's different in this situation with a big high to our north which will limit amplification. Again, I wouldn't be surprised if say, Bennington to Keene to coastal ME did very well while NNE had some trouble with dry air.

[Hitman]

It's different in this situation with a big high to our north which will limit amplification. Again, I wouldn't be surprised if say, Bennington to Keene to coastal ME did very well while NNE had some trouble with dry air.

appreciate the forecasting.  I'll keep wishcasting and telling myself that sometimes its better to be lucky than good.  Bennington to warren is about 100 miles so at least we are in  the game.

[NEK_VT_Upslope_Event]

What are early indications (if any) for upslope after the storm departs?

[ctsnowstorm628]

appreciate the forecasting. I'll keep wishcasting and telling myself that sometimes its better to be lucky than good. Bennington to warren is about 100 miles so at least we are in the game.

All of NNE is most definitely in the game and I think we will see decent snows (too early to say how much). I just think SNE will do much better.

[adk]

What are early indications (if any) for upslope after the storm departs?

Not particularly impressive. Lots of dry air to the north that funnels back in.  Storm tracks more east than north as well.

 

As to an earlier point- I'm 1000% concerned that Northern VT's mtns along with the ADK get shut out with a sharp precip cutoff occuring somewhere in So VT/NH. 

 

As for my distrust of the Euro for this storm- stuff has been suppressed to the s/e for what...5 weeks now...why believe that's not going to continue?

[adk]

Not particularly impressive. Lots of dry air to the north that funnels back in.  Storm tracks more east than north as well.

 

As to an earlier point- I'm 1000% concerned that Northern VT's mtns along with the ADK get shut out with a sharp precip cutoff occuring somewhere in So VT/NH. 

 

As for my distrust of the Euro for this storm- stuff has been suppressed to the s/e for what...5 weeks now...why believe that's not going to continue?

Oh and I should add that I LOVE the GFS solution for a soul crushing lakes cutter early next week. What could be more fitting.

[wxeyeNH]

If anyone has Euro QPF numbers for us up here, would love a response.  I hate asking how much in my backyard questions for the southern guys.  From what it seems 12Z Euro is a bit north?  Does 1" QPF get into the ski resorts or to at least Central areas??