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NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III


klw

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Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

There was another half inch of snow on the board when I checked this evening, so the snowpack continues to get reinforced.  It looks like the next chances for snow are tomorrow and Sunday night:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

718 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

 

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO PIVOT NORTHWARD WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

 

Details from the 7:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.5

Snow Density: 8.0% H2O

Temperature: 15.3 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

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Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

Another tenth of an inch of snow fell overnight to bring the total for the most recent event to an even inch at this location.  With the current clear skies due to the weak ridge of high pressure, I’m going to call that the end of that event, which was the general snow and LES blow over associated with the broad upper level trough over the past couple of days.  It sounds like today’s potential snow is derived from a distinct upper level disturbance and weak surface low as defined in this morning’s synopsis in the forecast BTV forecast discussion, so anything accumulating today will fall under that event:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

620 AM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

 

.SYNOPSIS...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

 

More substantial snows (6-10”) are forecast off to the west of us in the lake effect snow warning areas, with some lake effect snow advisory spots east of that, and the potential for up to an inch over here farther to the east:

 

ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW ADVISORY AREA WILL BE LIGHT. LOOKING AT 1-2" ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MTNS OF NRN/NERN VT...AND A DUSTING TO 1" ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF VERMONT.

 

That text fits right in with our point forecast for today into tonight:
 

  • Today Scattered snow showers, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 21. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
     
  • Tonight A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

 

Indeed the orientation of the snow coming off Lake Ontario does look appropriate for blowing over toward Northern Vermont:

 

02FEB13A.gif

 

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 7.1 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

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Just got back from a little field trip into Meredith.  I had no idea how big of an event the Pond Hockey Classic is. I'd say more people (but fewer vendors) than the big fishing derby which is next weekend.  Must have been at least a 1000 people out on the ice in the bay.  Very festive and cool. 

 

Did the area lose all the snow? 

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Pretty much.  I've got a crusty inch left in the backyard.

 

Pretty disasterous for the upcoming dog sled races.  This is the 84th year for them.  Over the past 10 or so years, it seems they get cancelled more often than they run. 

Yeah that sucks. Too bad we couldn't spead out the 2-4' snowpacks from the other good winters of the past 10-15 yrs too.

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Snowcover around Newfound Lake is about 50%.   The hills have snow above the lake except in south facing open areas like mine.  Seems to be more snow in Plymouth than down in Bristol.  I can't speak for Laconia but the snow line is somewhere in the NW Lakes Region of NH.  Even where there is glaciated snow it is not deeper than 6" in this area.  Very depressing.   We have not had any snowmobiling weather at all this winter, just unbelievable!

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Actually 0.1" here and still snowing.

 

Mood snow to help the otherwise scoured, gray, frozen coutenance to be found out there.

 

We have snow cover here but it certainly took a beating.  It varies from from only a few inches out in the fields to maybe 8" tops in the sheltered openings in the woods.  Very crusty and easy to walk on though.  The dog finds is easy to get around--things covered and no postholing.

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Looks like I picked a horrible week to make my first trip ever to New England to go skiing......going feb 10-15. Any chance we avoid the rainstorm modeled everywhere for 2/11? If not I think I'm going to have to alter our itinerary to strong snowmaking resorts.......bretton woods and or wildcat were on the agenda but now it looks lik we will have to divert to either loon, Sunday river or stowe since those resorts should hold up better to a second nne rainstorm in a couple of weeks in the heart of winter.......just terrible. I can stay in nyc metro if I want rain in the middle of winter lol.......

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Pretty much.  I've got a crusty inch left in the backyard.

 

Pretty disasterous for the upcoming dog sled races.  This is the 84th year for them.  Over the past 10 or so years, it seems they get cancelled more often than they run. 

 

Much shorter history in Farmington, but their dogsled races that had been scheduled this weekend are down the tubes, too.  That happened in 2006 and 2010, too.  I'm seeing this year in shades of 2006, when I had 3" in Feb and 3" in March and no real snowstorms either month.  (Had 24" in Jan 2006, though, and was +1" on 2/1 rather than -6" like this year.)

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Looks like I picked a horrible week to make my first trip ever to New England to go skiing......going feb 10-15. Any chance we avoid the rainstorm modeled everywhere for 2/11? If not I think I'm going to have to alter our itinerary to strong snowmaking resorts.......bretton woods and or wildcat were on the agenda but now it looks lik we will have to divert to either loon, Sunday river or stowe since those resorts should hold up better to a second nne rainstorm in a couple of weeks in the heart of winter.......just terrible. I can stay in nyc metro if I want rain in the middle of winter lol.......

 

I picked the same week, I was going to go this week but pushed it up a week in hope of better luck. We found out over the years that Stowe is better during the bad years, we hit some clunkers at Bretton so now we stick to Stowe, although next week we're staying at Bolton, close enough.

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Hey it snowed overnight...radar has the upslope signature and there's a whopping 3/4ths of an inch on the driveway. I guess it still can snow.

Big difference between ski area and town this morning...was about a mile out and all the sudden the tire tracks in front of me were getting deeper and deeper.

Around 3.25" here now at 1500ft:

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Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.04” L.E.

 

I found 1.5” of snow on the snowboard this morning; it was very light and dry, coming in at around 3% H2O.  It was still coming down at a steady pace as well, with a couple of additional tenths of an inch on the board before I left, so there will be a bit more to report as well.  Snow accumulations and snowfall intensity both seemed less back to the east in Waterbury, and based on the total liquid reports I saw on the CoCoRaHS map, the west side of the Greens may be the recipient of more of the moisture thus far.  This is the largest snowfall event so far this month, and just pushed us past 80” of snow for the season. 

 

On a related note, it looks like we’ll have some additional shots of snow going forward, with a midweek one, a potentially larger shot at the end of the week, and then another one next Tuesday.  Both Bob Minsenberger and Roger Hill mentioned the storm on Friday in their broadcasts with the possibility of several inches of snow, and Roger said we’ll need to watch for how warm it gets with the potential system at the beginning of next week.  It is a nice change of pace though to have two more significant winter storms in the forecast, but even today’s event is a step up from the dryness of late.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 37.5

Snow Density: 2.7% H2O

Temperature: 16.2 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

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One more... finally a Green Mountain snow surprise.  Been a little while.  Some winters these "scattered snow shower" forecasts turn into 3-5" snowfalls almost every time, lol.  Not this winter.

 

That’s awesome PF, I see that Bolton Valley has reported in with 3-4” as well in their early report.  Indeed it has been weird the past few weeks without the usual over performing Green Mountain surprises, but perhaps we’ll get things back on track going forward.  I’ve got to say, Mansfield really delivered the turns yesterday.  Without a lot of new snow reported since the midweek warmth, I went into yesterday’s outing rather pessimistic about the conditions – I even gave my edges a quick sharpening, which is something I typically don’t even think of doing mid season in the Northern Greens.  I thought it was going to be an on piste day with hard nastiness off trail, but one of our students asked to venture off in into some of the Gondolier Woods, and I reluctantly obliged, figuring we’d quickly be right back out.  Well, the turns were great, there were 2-3 inches of powder atop the subsurface, and even that was generally spongy and not crusty.  That ended up changing the whole dynamic for the day.  I can’t say it was of that high a quality everywhere, as some places did seem to take on a firmer subsurface whether due to exposure or traffic, but the off piste was definitely in play and a lot of fun.  Coverage wasn’t an issue either, and it got me curious to check the Mt. Mansfield Stake depth, and I saw that it was still at roughly the 40” mark.  I’ve added in a quick image below showing the snow that we were dealing with yesterday, and more details are in the full report at our website

 

03FEB13A.jpg

 

Anyway, there should be some great turns out there with today’s additional snow, and it could be even better by the end of the week if the storms track right.

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Yeah, J.Spin... this week was a weird one for reporting snow as there was about 2-3" that probably fell up there, but a lot of it was in less than 1" incriments.  I really have a hard time showing 1" on the report, even if its like 0.7" or something... so I just reported like 4 straight dustings, though one of those was a full 1" at 3,000ft.  But those 0.4-0.7" type stuff does add up even if its not much, so over the course of a week to like 2-3". 

 

And honestly, its better in these conditions to have your expectations low and then be pleasantly surprised.  That was the name of the game this weekend, haha. 

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