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NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III


klw

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I made some turns up at Bolton Valley this morning and can pass along some snow observations through to Burlington.  The resort was reporting 4-5” inches in the morning snow report, and indeed I found that the settled depth of the new snow was 4” at the Timberline Base (1,500’).  Areas that hadn’t been skied in the past week or so were yielding some nice powder turns with 8-10” of unconsolidated snow atop the subsurface.  In the valleys, I found that accumulations from yesterday really tapered off a few miles to the west of our house in Bolton Flats.  I’m not sure what they actually picked up yesterday, but it couldn’t have been much, because through to Jonesville it looks like there are just a couple of inches of total snow on the ground.  Interestingly, snow accumulations pick up by the Richmond area, and westward through to Burlington the snow is much deeper.  I was really surprised when I checked the NWS climate report and saw that Burlington picked up 5.2” yesterday – and even more surprised to see that they are at 49.1” of snow for the season.  I know we got the heads up the other day in the thread that Burlington’s snowfall was ahead of average, but it’s amazing to think that it’s at almost 50”. I’m not sure how it compares to some of the actual climate stations, but it’s higher than most season totals I’ve seen on Kevin’s New England snow total table.

 

Snowfall up and down the spine of the Greens was quite consistently in that 3-6” range from this event, tapering off just a bit in the most southern areas to the lower end of that range.  The north to south listing of available 24-hour snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas are below:

 

Jay Peak: 5”

Burke: 6”

Smuggler’s Notch: 5”

Stowe: 6”

Bolton Valley: 5”

Mad River Glen: 6”

Sugarbush: 5”

Middlebury: 4”

Pico: 6”

Killington: 6”

Okemo: 6”

Bromley: 3”

Magic Mountain: 4”

Stratton: 4”

Mount Snow: 3”

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Hanging tough at 23 so far today.  I wouldn't mind seeing a nice glaze develop on the snow tonight--maybe a little protective armor.

 

50s showing up out in Ohio, western PA and even western NY already.   :bag:

and 60's to low 70's in MD/VA.   I am so sick of this cold I will not mind a nice 50F day.

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A few things-

 

1. Don't be surprised for this ice threat to be "muted" in most spots outside of sheltered valleys like the MWN valley. Generally thinking 0.15" or less for most with SE flow.

 

2. Also, don't be surprised if tomorrow is the sh*ttiest day of the year east of the Greens, particularly the NEK over into NH. Most mesoscale guidance has trouble getting these spots above like 40-43F through sunset tomorrow with RA+ while west of the Greens soar into the 50's. Wouldn't be surprised to see 32F in the NEK by like 3-6am, but have much of the day struggle to surpass 36-40F.

 

3. Also, looking into the future, wouldn't be surprised to see a similar pattern set back up early next week..aka cold and dry and little snow. That'd be our luck.

 

With that, have a good night!

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A few things-

 

1. Don't be surprised for this ice threat to be "muted" in most spots outside of sheltered valleys like the MWN valley. Generally thinking 0.15" or less for most with SE flow.

 

2. Also, don't be surprised if tomorrow is the sh*ttiest day of the year east of the Greens, particularly the NEK over into NH. Most mesoscale guidance has trouble getting these spots above like 40-43F through sunset tomorrow with RA+ while west of the Greens soar into the 50's. Wouldn't be surprised to see 32F in the NEK by like 3-6am, but have much of the day struggle to surpass 36-40F.

 

3. Also, looking into the future, wouldn't be surprised to see a similar pattern set back up early next week..aka cold and dry and little snow. That'd be our luck.

 

With that, have a good night!

Yay!  Thanks for the uplifting news!  Meanwhile, still 29F here with a glaze forming on the cars.  

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A few things-

1. Don't be surprised for this ice threat to be "muted" in most spots outside of sheltered valleys like the MWN valley. Generally thinking 0.15" or less for most with SE flow.

2. Also, don't be surprised if tomorrow is the sh*ttiest day of the year east of the Greens, particularly the NEK over into NH. Most mesoscale guidance has trouble getting these spots above like 40-43F through sunset tomorrow with RA+ while west of the Greens soar into the 50's. Wouldn't be surprised to see 32F in the NEK by like 3-6am, but have much of the day struggle to surpass 36-40F.

3. Also, looking into the future, wouldn't be surprised to see a similar pattern set back up early next week..aka cold and dry and little snow. That'd be our luck.

With that, have a good night!

1) Is anyone expecting more than 0.1" of ice? To me it looks like trace amounts in general, but slick for a while. Temps are 25-30F across much of the area but that'll come up quickly towards freezing with steady precip. It's not like its 18-24F in east/northeast VT, which usually lead to bigger icing events when starting a notch lower than where we are now.

2) Definitely.

3) cold and dry is the the theme going forward. I do think the mountains can nickel and dime a little bit each day but that won't be widespread. Synoptic snows look few and very far between at least over the next two weeks, with eastern southern New England having the best chance.

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1) Is anyone expecting more than 0.1" of ice? To me it looks like trace amounts in general, but slick for a while. Temps are 25-30F across much of the area but that'll come up quickly towards freezing with steady precip. It's not like its 18-24F in east/northeast VT, which usually lead to bigger icing events when starting a notch lower than where we are now.

2) Definitely.

3) cold and dry is the the theme going forward. I do think the mountains can nickel and dime a little bit each day but that won't be widespread. Synoptic snows look few and very far between at least over the next two weeks, with eastern southern New England having the best chance.

NWS has 0.1-0.2" for the NEK in their advisory. I'm leaning toward 0.05"-0.08"ish. It's already 30 even here. 

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NWS has 0.1-0.2" for the NEK in their advisory. I'm leaning toward 0.05"-0.08"ish. It's already 30 even here. 

The Passumpsic Valley is a tough place for ice. I've seen St. J be the warmest in the state on south-southeasterly flow freezing rain events on some occasions (downsloping and warmth coming up the CT River Valley), and on others (generally southwesterly) they retain the cold air and sit at 30F forever (entrenched cold air east of the Greens).

 

That being said, the ground is frozen solid, so while we're 35F on the western slopes, the sidewalks, driveways, and dirt roads are all glazed over.

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3) cold and dry is the the theme going forward. I do think the mountains can nickel and dime a little bit each day but that won't be widespread. Synoptic snows look few and very far between at least over the next two weeks, with eastern southern New England having the best chance.

 

Agreed for the most part, though it does look there are a few chances for 2-4 type snows.  Maybe this breaks with a big one mid-february. 

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