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NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III


klw

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Definitely an over-performer like CTsnowstorm said... I was thinking 2-3" like the RAP had been showing all day, but turns out ratios were better than expected and we've got twice that and still snowing.   J.Spin's 20:1 ratio sounds spot on... will probably end with 0.25" QPF and 5" snow.

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Definitely an over-performer like CTsnowstorm said... I was thinking 2-3" like the RAP had been showing all day, but turns out ratios were better than expected and we've got twice that and still snowing.   J.Spin's 20:1 ratio sounds spot on... will probably end with 0.25" QPF and 5" snow.

Ratios did surprise me a bit. I was about 10:1 until 6pm, but this last batch was probably 20-25:1 itself (just guessing). 18z 6hr forecast soundings had saturation up to about H55-H6 which is right around -15C so we must be squeezing out some decent lift in the mid levels around the -12C to -15C layer above H7.

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Ratios did surprise me a bit. I was about 10:1 until 6pm, but this last batch was probably 20-25:1 itself (just guessing). 18z 6hr forecast soundings had saturation up to about H55-H6 which is right around -15C so we must be squeezing out some decent lift in the mid levels around the -12C to -15C layer above H7.

And there's the H7 frontogenesis aligned with the axis of heaviest snows.

 

post-3-0-69058100-1359422793_thumb.gif

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Yeah if it wasn't for the ratios, we'd probably have only 2-3" right now.

 

I've lucked out with this band that seems to keep nudging into the area.  Its just pouring big, fluffy dendrites.

 

There must be some thin forcing over us here as a band just keeps developing, then wanes, then develops again, etc...

 

jan28h.gif

 

Can see it on the lower level scan too...

 

jan28i.gif

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Just cleared 4.2" off the board and it is still snowing hard

 

Ahh... at 9pm I just measured around 5" with 10.5" at the stake just off Mountain Road.  Maybe I'll make up a little ground on you in this one, haha.  I've been a few inches behind ya for a while from that Dec 27/28 system.

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BTV increased the advisory one more tier of counties northward... including BTV and MPV.

 

Thanks for the update PF; I added the latest maps below – they’ve got us close to that 4-6” range now (it looks like they’ve got a chunk of that darker blue marking the Bolton Valley area at the northern part of the Chittenden/Washington County Line, although it sounds like you guys up in Stowe will easily be in that range with that band.  There’s an inch on the board here as of ~9:00 P.M., so 4.0 inches for the event.

 

28JAN13B.jpg

 

28JAN13C.jpg

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So I overestimated our ratios. The accumulating snow is basically done so I did a measurement early so that I can hit the sack. Latest core sample was 1.8" new snow from 0.12" liquid.

 

Total so far is 3.3" snow and 0.26" w.e. Depth is 5".

 

18.8F

2.8" final here. Just approaching 25" at Plymouth for the season now. Pretty sad.

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Event totals: 4.4” Snow/0.21” L.E.

 

Snow has tapered off a lot now, but there’s still a bit falling.  Latest observations are below:  

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 23.3

Snow Density: 4.3% H2O

Temperature: 20.7 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

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GYX_pw.gif

 

This kind of struck me about Thursday. I noticed that the GEFS was advertising PWAT anomalies approaching +5 or +6 SD, really impressive territory. The raw numbers were around 1.25 inches on the 00z GFS and 1.35 inches on the 00z NAM. As you can see for late January, those numbers are near the observed record.

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Pleasantly surprised to have measured 2.5" on the snow board. The snow last night, and what was on the ground before, will be a distant memory after tonight. Rain and temps in the upper 40's will leave nothing but driveway and parking lot piles. Hopefully, as we head into February and March, we can get the ground covered again with copious amounts of snow.

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Ahh... at 9pm I just measured around 5" with 10.5" at the stake just off Mountain Road.  Maybe I'll make up a little ground on you in this one, haha.  I've been a few inches behind ya for a while from that Dec 27/28 system.

 

Cleared another 0.3" this morning for a storm total of 4.5".  It amazes me how big a difference just a few miles can make.

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Cleared another 0.3" this morning for a storm total of 4.5".  It amazes me how big a difference just a few miles can make.

 

Yeah not that big of a difference... I didn't clear anything and had 4.9" (around 5") as my last measurement, and when I came out this morning that was right about in the same place.

 

So my total goes down as 4.9" for this event in my book... it seemed to be settling as it was falling after that point.

 

Pic of the parking area this morning at home.

 

 

 

Up at 1,500ft I had 5.25" (5.3) stacked... probably some settling there, too, but still a decent little event.

 

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