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NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III


klw

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Afternoon forecast from GYX has my area getting about 1" this evening.  Given the current TD of -4 in AUG and the eastward or slightly south-of-east movement of the precip on radar, I think their current snowfall map (<1") is a better choice; maybe 0.1"?  Tomorrow's forecast is 1-3" snow/sleet in the evening.  By then temps aloft will probably preclude much in the way of snow, and I'd be pleasantly surprised to see even the 1" of frozen accum.  Still hoping for modest rainfall Wed-Thurs.  Half an inch at 40F won't do much harm given the 11" currently OG, but 1"+ at 45+ would be another story.

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2.5" here on the Montpelier side of the Montpelier/Middlesex town line at 875'. Slacked off to small grains for about half an hour but it's coming down nicely again.

 

We gonna have any snow left on the ground outside the ski places by Thursday morning, PF or J.Spin?

 

 

I’m really bad with figuring out if snow is going to melt, so I’m not a great one to ask.  Hearing the comments about all the snow disappearing from one system cutting to our west sounds sort of dramatic to me though; we’ve currently got roughly an inch and a half of liquid in our snowpack at the house, plus whatever is going into it with the current system, so it seems weird that it would just disintegrate because of a day in the 40s F with some rain.

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I’m really bad with figuring out if snow is going to melt, so I’m not a great one to ask.  Hearing the comments about all the snow disappearing from one system cutting to our west sounds sort of dramatic to me though; we’ve currently got roughly an inch and a half of liquid in our snowpack at the house, plus whatever is going into it with the current system, so it seems weird that it would just disintegrate because of a day in the 40s F with some rain.

 

My snow depth is now back up to 8" but the top 2" is pure fluff. 

 

I think most of this disappears... near record warmth is possible Wednesday and it looks more like 36 hours.  I don't know, I think the rain, fog, and temps in the 45-50F range will do a number on it.

 

A crusty 1-2" could be possible but I bet its patchy.  Anyone with 10" or more on the ground right now will probably be fine.  It will look pretty sad afterwards unfortunately, but I like the days following it for some chances for fluffy accumulation.  There's a good westerly flow bringing Great Lakes moisture into the mountains, and you never know what can happen.  Someone could get lucky if you get stuck under some persistent snow showers.

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2.5" in Stowe now.

 

J.Spin... I assume you aren't home yet?  The Winooski Valley and BTV/CPV area seemed to be under the best banding for a bit... I bet you'll have a decent stack on the snowboard (3"<).

 

 

I’m on the bus right now approaching Waterbury, but I just spoke with my wife at home and she says it looks like 3-4” on the snowboard.  She also said she had about 4” on her car when she left Morrisville probably an hour or so ago, but that the Waterbury area had the trickiest driving.  Take the numbers with a grain of salt of course since she’s just eyeballing it, but I’m planning to run a full analysis off the snowboard at 6:00 P.M.

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I’m on the bus right now approaching Waterbury, but I just spoke with my wife at home and she says it looks like 3-4” on the snowboard.  She also said she had about 4” on her car when she left Morrisville probably an hour or so ago, but that the Waterbury area had the trickiest driving.  Take the numbers with a grain of salt of course since she’s just eyeballing it, but I’m planning to run a full analysis off the snowboard at 6:00 P.M.

 

Yeah my parents are up visiting and said the same thing as your wife... they asked how much snow do you think we have?  I said 2.5" or so.  They replied, no way there's at least 3-4" out there.  Maybe I'm missing something, lol. 

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Actually just went out and was surprised to find almost 3.5" of fluff...and its snowing pretty good.  Probably moderate to high end "light" but snow growth is near perfect so its adding up quicker than visibility might suggest.  That's almost another 1" in the past hour.

 

There's an inch inside the tire tracks in this photo... so its more than the difference in the tracks would suggest.

 

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BTV increased the advisory one more tier of counties northward... including BTV and MPV.

 

NYZ028-VTZ001-005-008-017-290730-/O.EXA.KBTV.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-130129T1200Z/EASTERN CLINTON-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-WASHINGTON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLATTSBURGH...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...BURLINGTON...MONTPELIER...UNDERHILL616 PM EST MON JAN 28 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM ESTTUESDAY.* LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.* ACCUMULATIONS...A TOTAL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW THIS  EVENING...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY THIS  EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY  FREEZING DRIZZLE LINGERING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SLICK  ROAD CONDITIONS.* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 20.* VISIBILITIES...WIDESPREAD 3 MILES OR LESS IN SNOW...WITH AREAS  OF LESS THAN ONE MILE IN HEAVY SNOW.
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Event totals: 3.0” Snow/0.15” L.E.

 

Arriving at the Waterbury Park and Ride this evening, I found what appeared to be 3-4” of snow on the ground, and 2-3” on my car.  The snow is some beautiful Vermont fluff – I just did one pass around the car with my hand and it all collapsed off the windows.  Driving wasn’t too bad; there were a couple inches of slushy snow on the roads.  It was actually pretty fun throwing a little vinegar into the turns with the Subaru.  My wife estimated 3-4” on the snowboard at the house, and I found exactly 3.0” on there, so she managed to get it on the low end of her estimate.  I guessed that the snow was in the 6% H2O range, which was pretty close as it came in at 5.0%.  We’ve just had light snow since the 6:00 P.M. observations, but I’ve seen some big flakes over 1” in diameter.  There’s another 0.6” on the snowboard now, which actually makes this the largest storm so far for 2013.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 3.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.15 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 19.0 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

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Mid levels always win. I figured a good 2-3 maybe 4 there..but makes sense. The ribbbon of RH and frontogenesis don't lie.

Yup. 2-3" with a spot 4" always looked good. I'm enjoying it while it lasts. I'll go out and take an intermediate measurement now, but I don't clear the board until midnight. I'm not sure I can make it that long awake though after short sleep last night.

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