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NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III


klw

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What I've found interesting is that the upslope region is at below normal snowfall right now, while the BTV/CPV is above normal snowfall (yesterday, BTV was 3.3" ahead of "normal" pace).  We just have not been getting our daily snowfalls and this January has been by far the lowest snowfall in the 5 years I've worked at the mountain, and those stats would also go for town I'm assuming. 

 

Usually we'd be averaging 1-3" per day (if not more) from town to mountain summit.  Not happening this month.  In fact, after a solid December (nothing historic by any means), we are now back to only 21" more than last season's horrific total at 3,000ft. 

 

What is more disturbing to me, is that so far this season's December/January total is actually less than it was last winter... however hopefully we can add another inch or three before the end of the month.

 

This is how we've stacked up against the 5 season's I've been measuring snow on this mountain.  On the right is where snowfall was at the end of January, along with what our seasonal total should be at that point in time (168").  Seasonal average at the end of the year (15 year average) is 317".  What concerns me is that by this time in the season, snowfall totals heading into February are usually a good indicator of where we'll finish relative to normal (2006-2007 is the only year recently that bucked that trend).  Below normal at this point, tends to lead to below normal at the end.  Notice 2010-2011 (although great in SNE, was merely average up here) where we were just inches above average at this time, and also finished just above average at the end of the season.

 

Aparently clunkers like to come in multiple seasons but I guess the law of averages had to even it out at some point.  Our snowfall (as well as climate spots like BTV) averages had been steadily going up due to a snowy first decade of 2000.  Now it seems we are averaging that out.  It also happens that my first several years skiing here in college, then working, winters of 350" were sort of common.  That trend seems to be reversing all the sudden.

 

Also interesting though is how strong recent February's have been and how atrocious March has been. 

 

 

 

attachicon.gifhttp://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=86517'>JanSnowfall.JPG

We have yet to even have a true upslope event this winter!

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Nice last afternoon of the real cold. 17/-11 now...may slip a hair below zero tonight, but winds may be a problem.

 

Six subzero mornings in a row, and I'm guessing it will be 8 before the torch arrives.  I expect little to nothing from the pre-torch event.  This month has brought one advisory event, which verified with 4".  I've also had 6-7 sub-advisory forecasts, for amounts ranging from 1-2" to 2-4", and so far I'm 0-fer, with 1.5" total from all of them and none with more than 0.5".  Each one, except for the Norlun that ran away east, has verified the GYX forecast for much of their CWA.  My Jan avg for days with 1"+ snow is 5.6 and the fewest has been 2; good chance that gets beaten this month.

 

Of course, the midweek 1"+ RA and mid 40s will likely verify or overperform...

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Nice last afternoon of the real cold. 17/-11 now...may slip a hair below zero tonight, but winds may be a problem.

Same here. Wind is blowing good now. Just tries to get out on the lake, but ice is too questionable where I am. There is a current adjacent to the beach thanks to the wind.

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NWS nailed the high for my location, had 11F on the forecast and that's what I had. Back down to 9F. Would love to think the upcoming warm-up would spare the glacier around here but I have developed a deep sense of pessismim this year b

I think we have widespread bare patches on lawns by Wednesday night at the very least. Not gonna go below freezing Tuesday night, followed by more rain Wednesday with mid 40's. And any snow we get Monday will be the first to go. Another round of cold and dry follows, though it doesn't look nearly as cold as it did 3 or 4 days ago. Maybe when that relaxes we can get some chances for some snow events...but I'm not counting on much at this point...

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Cold enough out there today and quite windy.  Still blowing here pretty good atm.  I keep thinking it'll settle down as it does here but not quite yet.

 

Topped out at 12, down to 6 now.

 

Four sub-zero mornings in a row and five out of the last six (with a +4 the outlier).  Once the winds quit, we ought to go right down again.

 

Couple inches before the cutter?

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We have yet to even have a true upslope event this winter!

 

Yeah nothing close to what we normally see a couple times per winter.  But we need an active pattern for that.  Even an active pattern filled with cutters and rainstorms usually has a shot at some big upslope on the backside NW flow.  I seem to remember some larger upslope events over the years being on the heels of rainstorms as those surface and upper level lows migrate NE of us.  Especially early in the season like Nov/Dec.

 

This is the closest thing I can remember to an upslope event... no inhabited areas really had any big snowfall totals, but I had a fluffy 12-spot at 3,000ft on Mansfield from the November 29-30 event.

 

snowfall_113012.png

 

 

This was November 30th... that's really the only big upslope event I can remember on the mountain this season, at least anything more than 6 or 8" at 3,000ft.  Although that Nov 29-30 event only really gave 7" or less to inhabited areas, Mansfield had a fair amount of fluff fall.

 

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Max here was 17.3F. Down to 9F now with winds gusting over 10mph at times. Maybe we'll get a couple of wind lulls overnight to let the temp spike down below 0F briefly, but otherwise I think we keep the breeze and slight mixing. Maybe Littleton or HIE decouple and plummet later.

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Max here was 17.3F. Down to 9F now with winds gusting over 10mph at times. Maybe we'll get a couple of wind lulls overnight to let the temp spike down below 0F briefly, but otherwise I think we keep the breeze and slight mixing. Maybe Littleton or HIE decouple and plummet later.

9.1 here but dropping steadily.

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What I've found interesting is that the upslope region is at below normal snowfall right now, while the BTV/CPV is above normal snowfall (yesterday, BTV was 3.3" ahead of "normal" pace).  We just have not been getting our daily snowfalls and this January has been by far the lowest snowfall in the 5 years I've worked at the mountain, and those stats would also go for town I'm assuming. 

 

Usually we'd be averaging 1-3" per day (if not more) from town to mountain summit.  Not happening this month.  In fact, after a solid December (nothing historic by any means), we are now back to only 21" more than last season's horrific total at 3,000ft. 

 

What is more disturbing to me, is that so far this season's December/January total is actually less than it was last winter... however hopefully we can add another inch or three before the end of the month.

 

This is how we've stacked up against the 5 season's I've been measuring snow on this mountain.  On the right is where snowfall was at the end of January, along with what our seasonal total should be at that point in time (168").  Seasonal average at the end of the year (15 year average) is 317".  What concerns me is that by this time in the season, snowfall totals heading into February are usually a good indicator of where we'll finish relative to normal (2006-2007 is the only year recently that bucked that trend).  Below normal at this point, tends to lead to below normal at the end.  Notice 2010-2011 (although great in SNE, was merely average up here) where we were just inches above average at this time, and also finished just above average at the end of the season.

 

Aparently clunkers like to come in multiple seasons but I guess the law of averages had to even it out at some point.  Our snowfall (as well as climate spots like BTV) averages had been steadily going up due to a snowy first decade of 2000.  Now it seems we are averaging that out.  It also happens that my first several years skiing here in college, then working, winters of 350" were sort of common.  That trend seems to be reversing all the sudden.

 

Also interesting though is how strong recent February's have been and how atrocious March has been. 

 

 

 

attachicon.gifJanSnowfall.JPG

 

Sort of related-   A climotologist in this neck of the woods put out some research recently, and I asked him about snowfall in northern New England.  From his perspective/models, Maine is warming up, on average, the most due to reduced albedo.  In general, the snow season is shortening, and the shoulder seasons are more variable.  But his thoughts were in the direction of possibly a slight increase in precip overall.  So that may mitigate reduction in seasonal snowfall totals.

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Sort of related-   A climotologist in this neck of the woods put out some research recently, and I asked him about snowfall in northern New England.  From his perspective/models, Maine is warming up, on average, the most due to reduced albedo.  In general, the snow season is shortening, and the shoulder seasons are more variable.  But his thoughts were in the direction of possibly a slight increase in precip overall.  So that may mitigate reduction in seasonal snowfall totals.

A recent study at Saint Johnsbury supports that theory too. Warming but also an increase in precip and therefore snowfall.

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Appears to have (barely) remained above zero this morning, 1st time since Monday unless it dropped underneath sometime during the night.  Six straight sub-20 highs and counting - today will be close - most since having 8 in a row in 1/2005.  Morning gfs has cut the midweek RA from 1"+ to .5" to .75", hope that trend continues.

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Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

Late last night I saw that there was light snow falling outside, which was associated with the upper level trough coming through the area.  The NWS discussion described it as “fairly potent”, but it had little moisture:

 

DISCUSSION FROM 639 PM SATURDAY... A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION NOW...BUT HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO REALLY BE THE ONLY NOTICEABLE EFFECT FOR MOST. AS A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...MAY SEE SOME WEAK ENHANCEMENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. AS SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS PUSH EASTWARD...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING. EXPECTING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

 

This morning’s observations report from here is nearly a duplicate of yesterday’s though in terms of snow, liquid content, snowpack depth, and sky observations.  The only thing I had to change in my reporting template was the temperature.

 

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 5.4 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

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With the higher summits forecast calling for clear skies (the first since mid-December for my hikes), I opted for a viewapalooza hike - Mt Carrigain. The forecast also was calling for wind chills of -30°, but I figured I'd give it a go. The road to the trailhead is closed in winter, so a 10-mile hike became 14 miles, which is a lot for snowshoes.

Anyway, trailhead temp at 6:15am was 9° and I could hear the wind howling up high. The hike itself was uneventful and the views were amazing with the 100-mile visibility. At the 4700' summit there is an observation tower that yields unsurpassed 360° views from the heart of the White Mountains. As I approached the tower I could hear the wind whistling through the structure - days like this are why I bought a Kestrel. I ascended the tower and pulled out the anemometer. I came up with an air temp of -4°, a peak wind gust of 25mph and a wind chill of -33°. This was the coldest I have hiked in so far, but I wasn't cold except when I removed my glove to snap pictures. I wanted to take more but it was just too cold to go gloveless. Plus I worried about my camera freezing up, as it did atop Eisenhower a month ago. An amazing day for a hike, and I will be sure to revisit this peak in summer. Here's a couple of pics. Enjoy! :)

post-254-0-88726400-1359313116_thumb.jpg

post-254-0-64264700-1359313139_thumb.jpg

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With the higher summits forecast calling for clear skies (the first since mid-December for my hikes), I opted for a viewapalooza hike - Mt Carrigain. The forecast also was calling for wind chills of -30°, but I figured I'd give it a go. The road to the trailhead is closed in winter, so a 10-mile hike became 14 miles, which is a lot for snowshoes.

Anyway, trailhead temp at 6:15am was 9° and I could hear the wind howling up high. The hike itself was uneventful and the views were amazing with the 100-mile visibility. At the 4700' summit there is an observation tower that yields unsurpassed 360° views from the heart of the White Mountains. As I approached the tower I could hear the wind whistling through the structure - days like this are why I bought a Kestrel. I ascended the tower and pulled out the anemometer. I came up with an air temp of -4°, a peak wind gust of 25mph and a wind chill of -33°. This was the coldest I have hiked in so far, but I wasn't cold except when I removed my glove to snap pictures. I wanted to take more but it was just too cold to go gloveless. Plus I worried about my camera freezing up, as it did atop Eisenhower a month ago. An amazing day for a hike, and I will be sure to revisit this peak in summer. Here's a couple of pics. Enjoy! :)

Awesome pictures...any idea what the snowdepth was at the tower?

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Awesome pictures...any idea what the snowdepth was at the tower?

Nope, no idea. I've toyed with the idea of bringing along a yardstick or something to measure depth, but I really don't need to tote around something like that. I will say, though, that the wind was blowing right through the tower and the snow beneath was being scoured out and deposited on the eastern slope.

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Sweet photos, Jayhawk.  Must've been chilly up there in the wind.

-33° windchills, but I had the necessary gear on. Only my hands got cold when I removed the gloves to snap pics. The main casualties from the cold were my water bottles as two of the three froze up. Next time they go in the pack instead of riding in the external pockets.

Let's get some snow in here ... I haven't been keeping up with this next threat, but I understand we have a few inches on the way? Make it so, Number One.

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-33° windchills, but I had the necessary gear on. Only my hands got cold when I removed the gloves to snap pics. The main casualties from the cold were my water bottles as two of the three froze up. Next time they go in the pack instead of riding in the external pockets.

Let's get some snow in here ... I haven't been keeping up with this next threat, but I understand we have a few inches on the way? Make it so, Number One.

Damn it Jim, I'm a doctor, not an engineer...

 

how bout that for a star trek quote? yup i'm a trek weenie...

 

nice pics...i thought you were smart enough to know that water will freeze at temps 32 and below???

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Damn it Jim, I'm a doctor, not an engineer...

how bout that for a star trek quote? yup i'm a trek weenie...

nice pics...i thought you were smart enough to know that water will freeze at temps 32 and below???

Ummm ... yeah! Actually it's the first time the bottles froze solid. Usually there will be ice in there but the water will be super-cooled. Next time, inside the pack they go! Or I will carry an acetylene torch.

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Another cold start here at -2 but not too bad on the whole.  Not sure if I like the forecast for the week or not.  Fresh snow--good.  Warm & wet, not so good.  ;)

 

 

A recent study at Saint Johnsbury supports that theory too. Warming but also an increase in precip and therefore snowfall.

 

Unoffically and ancecdotally, I've noticed just this sort of thing here too--last winter and so far this year aside.

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After hearing their morning broadcasts, both Bob Minsenberger and Roger Hill are going with a general 2-4” of snow for Northern Vermont with the potential for 6” in the mountains from the incoming storm.  The BTV NWS seems to have similar thoughts, with the highest amounts over in Northern New York and Central Vermont on their accumulations map:

 

28JAN13A.jpg

 

There aren’t any advisories up for BTV’s zones in the Northern 2/3 of Vermont, but accumulations from the next couple of periods in our point forecast sum to 2-5” of snow through tonight.

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Yeah looking like a widespread 2-4, with 4-6 elevated... only to get washed away Wednesday.

 

NAM looking colder on the back end, but by the time it changes back it appears to be nothing more than snowshowers with the frontal passage. Trying to figure out where we ski this weekend. Any chance Jay could end up with 6"?

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As I am choosing to stick my head in the sand about most of Wednesday, I will immediately jump to the part of BTV's Area Discussion that I really liked reading:

 

COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...BROAD 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS......AND WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH HIGH RH MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WHEN THERE WON`T BE SNOW.

 

Stay the course!

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