NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III

[CardinalWinds]

1.0 on the dot. Wind seems to have died down a bit and there was even a little bit of light snow, falling just a touch harder than flurries.

Same exact conditions here, not surprising since we are so close, I guess. Milky moon behind the clouds. Forecast low is -20 here, but that may bust somewhat if we don't get cleared out completely overnight.

 

I liked your earlier idea of 60 hours below zero..alas, got up to 5 at the house here today. It's going to feel like spring come next Tuesday and Wednesday if that torch comes to fruition. Euro really muted any torch at 12z...broke off a big piece of the SW energy and left it wandering around S. California while building a big high into the pac nw... but that may have been a hiccup. I'll be interested to see what it shows on the next run overnight tonight.

[CardinalWinds]

Same exact conditions here, not surprising since we are so close, I guess. Milky moon behind the clouds. Forecast low is -20 here, but that may bust somewhat if we don't get cleared out completely overnight.

 

I liked your earlier idea of 60 hours below zero..alas, got up to 5 at the house here today. It's going to feel like spring come next Tuesday and Wednesday if that torch comes to fruition. Euro really muted any torch at 12z...broke off a big piece of the SW energy and left it wandering around S. California while building a big high into the pac nw... but that may have been a hiccup. I'll be interested to see what it shows on the next run overnight tonight.

Not quite as pronounced as the 12z but the 0z Euro still on board for the muted torch...

[powderfreak]

-3F here at home at 5am.

 

Winds never went calm and clouds never really cleared out.  Pretty decent bust on low temps in VT last night.

[Saber]

-4 here @ 5:30..bright moonshine

[tamarack]

Had -5 at 9 last night after 5/-16 yest, then a slight rise to -2 when I left for AUG this morning.  Some house-creaking gusts last night added atmosphere to the Animal Planet show about Maine game wardens (premier of season 2), and it blew all night, so the minus teens forecast lost out to full mixing.

 

Want to ignore/forget 06z gfs, with its 980 low to our west next Wed-Thurs dumping 1"+ RA with temps 40s.  Can you say, "worst case scenario?"  Other models apparently don't even show that storm, just the weaker Tues-Wed event.

[klw]

-6F was the low at home last night.

[Allenson]

Topped out at 6 yesterday and the winds everyone's been talking about kept the temps overnight a little warmer than the night before. 

 

-8 at 7am this morning.

 

Yes it sure is!!  Although a bit "milder" today than I thought at 9F, obviously plenty cold to keep making ice out there.  Really lucked out this year with this cold snap coming and temps staying cold throughout the weekend as well.  Although I won't lie I wouldn't mind temps bumping up to 20 or so while I stand there officiating for 8 hours...LOL.

 

Looks cool for the weekend but with some sunshine out there on the lake, might not be too bad.

 

Need to get my skates out soon

[adk]

-3F here at home at 5am.

 

Winds never went calm and clouds never really cleared out.  Pretty decent bust on low temps in VT last night.

Winds sure didn't go calm.  Pretty gnarly skin this morning. -15F at the nose with winds in the 35-45 range. 

Not warm.

Calming now in BTV.  Flags just in from the lake are stil..

[weatherMA]

So glad I'm headed back to Plymouth State in two days. It will be nice to go somewhere with a snowpack, even if it is <6". Looks like it will get messy briefly before hopefully the cold comes back (with some snow this time).

 

• Monday NightA chance of snow showers and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• TuesdayA chance of rain showers, snow showers, and freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
• Tuesday NightA chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Going to my buddy's place in Norway Maine today for the weekend! Wicked excited.

[tamarack]

Want to ignore/forget 06z gfs, with its 980 low to our west next Wed-Thurs dumping 1"+ RA with temps 40s.  Can you say, "worst case scenario?"  Other models apparently don't even show that storm, just the weaker Tues-Wed event.

 

12z has temps 40 (K40B) to 50 (AUG) in the torch-deluge next week, bar in 970s from the 950 low in S.Quebec.  Noo-oo-ooo!!

 

Then it turns cold with no backside snow, so we get to enjoy skating on the woods roads, along with ice-plugged culverts for a messy spring melt-off. 

[Lava Rock]

12z has temps 40 (K40B) to 50 (AUG) in the torch-deluge next week, bar in 970s from the 950 low in S.Quebec.  Noo-oo-ooo!!

 

Then it turns cold with no backside snow, so we get to enjoy skating on the woods roads, along with ice-plugged culverts for a messy spring melt-off. 

and the crappy winter continues. Lock the rain in now, cause it almost always seems like rain events forecast a week in advance come to fruition, while snow events whiff.

[eekuasepinniW]

some fire code change required us to use a specific kind of hardwired smoke detector in all public areas.  we have 16 of them now, most in unheated rooms.

 

once the temp in the rooms gets around 15 degrees, they all start chirping.  I assume that's because the cold affects the performance of the backup battery.

 

at night when it's quiet, you can stand outside and it sounds like a pond full of spring peepers.

[#NoPoles]

some fire code change required us to use a specific kind of hardwired smoke detector in all public areas.  we have 16 of them now, most in unheated rooms.

 

once the temp in the rooms gets around 15 degrees, they all start chirping.  I assume that's because the cold affects the performance of the backup battery.

 

at night when it's quiet, you can stand outside and it sounds like a pond full of spring peepers.

 

 

do you do ski and stay packages?

[eekuasepinniW]

do you do ski and stay packages?

we did when we were open in the winter.

[CoastalWx]

13.2 here in Center Harbor/Moultonboro. Lake looks like it has more ice now than it did on last year's derby in February. Already trucks and hits in the ice.

[dendrite]

13.2 here in Center Harbor/Moultonboro. Lake looks like it has more ice now than it did on last year's derby in February. Already trucks and hits in the ice.

Nice. How long are you up here? Maybe we can get you a sub zero reading.

 

13.8

[CoastalWx]

Nice. How long are you up here? Maybe we can get you a sub zero reading.

13.8

As long as Bryce doesn't freak out, Sunday. Tomorrow night could be nasty.

12.7

[MaineJayhawk]

lol ... the MWN point forecast is showing a hurricane conditions icon for tomorrow night.

[Allenson]

Just a dusting of the finest, smallest flakes last night.

 

Back down to -3 this morning.

 

Nice to see some light snow in the forecast, even it is a prelude to a warmish day or two.

 

If we get up to near 40 by Wednesday, we might see folks out in shorts & flip-flops. 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

Last night a bit of light snow broke out in association with the upper level disturbance from the Great Lakes that was passing to our south, and we picked up another tenth of an inch of snow to add to the season tally.

 

While snowfall has seemed scarce of late with the arctic air that has been around, when I was entering my data into my spreadsheet this morning it was very interesting to note that this marked the 30^th accumulating snowstorm for our location this season (storm by storm accumulations can be found in the signature below).  Using the averages from my snowfall data, we are currently just 52.0% of the way through the accumulating snowfall season, and while it’s sort of hard to recall where all the storms came from with the recent dry pattern, this is actually a record pace for number of storms if extrapolated out to a full season.  The current high mark I’ve recorded here for accumulating snowstorms is 53 during the 2007-2008 season, which was certainly one where it felt like we were right in the storm track.  Snowfall is still running a bit on the lean side at 86.3% of average through this morning, so not surprisingly, snow is low on a per storm basis at just 2.4”/storm, with ~4”/storm being more typical.

 

If the perception this January has been one of dryness, that is indeed born out in my precipitation data – with today’s 0.01”, the month is now at 0.79” of liquid.  That’s quite a contrast after 6.31” in December.  Perhaps we’re passing that precipitation nadir however, because a glance at our point forecast graphics suggests a lot more activity in the coming days: 

 

 

Warmer temperatures and snow are in the text forecast right through next Friday, so that is definitely a welcomed relief after this recent trip to the arctic.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 2.5 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

[J.Spin]

Nice to see some light snow in the forecast, even it is a prelude to a warmish day or two.

 

 

I’m very much in agreement on that one.  It’s NNE, so stick us in the storm track and we’ll get snow – especially in the mountains.

[dendrite]

Up to 10.5F...had another tenth of snow last night. It's the year of the 0.1-0.2" events.

[powderfreak]

Last night a bit of light snow broke out in association with the upper level disturbance from the Great Lakes that was passing to our south, and we picked up another tenth of an inch of snow to add to the season tally.

 

 Snowfall is still running a bit on the lean side at 86.3% of average through this morning, so not surprisingly, snow is low on a per storm basis at just 2.4”/storm, with ~4”/storm being more typical.

 

 

What I've found interesting is that the upslope region is at below normal snowfall right now, while the BTV/CPV is above normal snowfall (yesterday, BTV was 3.3" ahead of "normal" pace).  We just have not been getting our daily snowfalls and this January has been by far the lowest snowfall in the 5 years I've worked at the mountain, and those stats would also go for town I'm assuming. 

 

Usually we'd be averaging 1-3" per day (if not more) from town to mountain summit.  Not happening this month.  In fact, after a solid December (nothing historic by any means), we are now back to only 21" more than last season's horrific total at 3,000ft. 

 

What is more disturbing to me, is that so far this season's December/January total is actually less than it was last winter... however hopefully we can add another inch or three before the end of the month.

 

This is how we've stacked up against the 5 season's I've been measuring snow on this mountain.  On the right is where snowfall was at the end of January, along with what our seasonal total should be at that point in time (168").  Seasonal average at the end of the year (15 year average) is 317".  What concerns me is that by this time in the season, snowfall totals heading into February are usually a good indicator of where we'll finish relative to normal (2006-2007 is the only year recently that bucked that trend).  Below normal at this point, tends to lead to below normal at the end.  Notice 2010-2011 (although great in SNE, was merely average up here) where we were just inches above average at this time, and also finished just above average at the end of the season.

 

Aparently clunkers like to come in multiple seasons but I guess the law of averages had to even it out at some point.  Our snowfall (as well as climate spots like BTV) averages had been steadily going up due to a snowy first decade of 2000.  Now it seems we are averaging that out.  It also happens that my first several years skiing here in college, then working, winters of 350" were sort of common.  That trend seems to be reversing all the sudden.

 

Also interesting though is how strong recent February's have been and how atrocious March has been. 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Nothing up here Brian. Low was 5.5 it appears.

[J.Spin]

Thanks for the nice data and analysis PF

 

 

What I've found interesting is that the upslope region is at below normal snowfall right now, while the BTV/CPV is above normal snowfall (yesterday, BTV was 3.3" ahead of "normal" pace).  We just have not been getting our daily snowfalls and this January has been by far the lowest snowfall in the 5 years I've worked at the mountain, and those stats would also go for town I'm assuming.

 

Usually we'd be averaging 1-3" per day (if not more) from town to mountain summit.  Not happening this month.

 

 

I didn’t know about that disparity – very interesting.  For me it just reinforces why these strong arctic air masses are probably my least favorite winter weather setup.  Indeed in many patterns we’d be getting our typical daily doses of snow, but these types of setups just push everything out of the way.  Even cutting systems are better, because many will give front and back end snows.

 

 

 

What is more disturbing to me, is that so far this season's December/January total is actually less than it was last winter... however hopefully we can add another inch or three before the end of the month.

 

 

It’s really thanks to an “OK” November (we typically don’t get so much November snow in the valleys that low months cut into the seasonal total too badly) and a good December that snowfall is where it’s at, because indeed January has been poor on snow.  Here are the monthly percentages on snowfall relative to average for our location this season:

 

November:  70.8%

December:  119.0%

January:  43.8%

 

The month isn’t over yet, but barring a big storm (e.g. 12”+), we’re going to come in well below average on snowfall for the month.  We need roughly two feet of additional snow to catch up to the January average.  At least moisture looks like it’s picking back up.

 

 

 

Also interesting though is how strong recent February's have been and how atrocious March has been.

 

 

I was just thinking about March, and it was encouraging to see that the last two average out to almost 30”/month here.  The two big March clunkers in my data set are actually the two seasons before that – ‘08-‘09 and ‘09-‘10, where snowfall averaged out to just 7.4”/month.  March is just too good a month for snowfall in the mountains to be held down for very long.  I see that people are already talking about the “Morch” thing, but I’m guessing that’s more of an SNE phenomenon.

[wxeyeNH]

Morning NNE/CNEnglanders.  Just some Sat AM musings....

 

Monday night overrunning event looks good to give us a few inches of snow.   Torch will under perform in my area mid week as it always seems to do.  I have total snow cover but t Dendrite 20-25 miles or so  to my south is basically bare.  

 

Newfound Lake is still mostly open except for the bays.  That amazes me with this cold wave.  Usually it freezes over the first week of January.  The bays all have bob houses with thick ice but the wind just will not let the main body skim over.  

 

12Z GFS a bit more interesting.  Primary goes way west as advertised for many runs but latest run shows a second wave running up the cold front as it is much closer to us.  Still we are on the warm side but a step in the right direction?

[dendrite]

Morning NNE/CNEnglanders.  Just some Sat AM musings....

 

Monday night overrunning event looks good to give us a few inches of snow.   Torch will under perform in my area mid week as it always seems to do.  I have total snow cover but t Dendrite 20-25 miles or so  to my south is basically bare.  

 

Newfound Lake is still mostly open except for the bays.  That amazes me with this cold wave.  Usually it freezes over the first week of January.  The bays all have bob houses with thick ice but the wind just will not let the main body skim over.  

 

12Z GFS a bit more interesting.  Primary goes way west as advertised for many runs but latest run shows a second wave running up the cold front as it is much closer to us.  Still we are on the warm side but a step in the right direction?

I have total snow cover here. Probably 2". Don't judge by torchville I93. My parents in Hooksett have full cover too.

[weatherMA]

NAM has been showing an advisory event for Monday while GFS has been showing less than an inch. There hasn't been much talk so I'm assuming the EC sided more w/ the GFS?

[J.Spin]

Even cutting systems are better, because many will give front and back end snows.

 

 

Actually on that note, the latest run of the GFS showed an interesting solution for the back side of that potential storm next week.  This run caught my interest because it looked so robust (haven’t seen amounts of precipitation in that lighter green shade around here in a while), but other runs have also been showing some degree of back side precipitation with cooler temperatures.  WunderMap® MSL and 850 mb plots:

 

 

 

That’s pretty far out of course, but between the flatter, colder solutions on some of the other models, and the amped up solutions on the GFS, it’s going to be fun to see what comes to fruition.