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NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III


klw

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I was in Portland and could see those dark clouds off to the north. Looked like a thunderstorm. Nada where I was.

 

Disheartening AFD from GYX this morning: frigid and mostly dry for the rest of this week, with above-normal temps and possible rain in southern zones early next week. I was frankly a little surprised to see them going so bullish on a torch this far out given the mixed signals; my point-and-click has a high of 38 for next Tuesday. Hopefully any thaw will be short-lived. Unlike some of our brethren to the south, I like it cold in the winter even if we're not having a KU every couple days.

 

The cold may relax for a day or two next week. But I think it comes back with plenty of snow chances. I am really feeling that February is going to be good for NNE. It may be the best month of winter.

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Once again, a small but evident band setting up in the I-89 corridor. Not a cloud in the sky half an hour ago but snowing here lightly right now...tiny flakes. Could get a coating by the looks of it.

That explains the the solid tenth or two on the cars this morning.  I went to bed at 11:00, it was -2° and I didn't think there would be any snow so I didn't check.

 

-12F here this morning.  Nice & cold.

 

Drove home through a snow squall yesterday evening.  Not sure where it came from but it dropped 0.3" here.

 

Heart of winter.

-11.2° at my house.  Not much wind.

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Still 0°F here in Orwell as of 12:00 noon. It reached -9 this morning just before 7:00 am.  A quick glance suggests that many places are 3-5°F below forecast, so perhaps -20° isn't out of the question for the Champlain Valley tonight. 

 

Local ponds and lakes should be freezing quite deeply now with some great skating conditions expected for the weekend when it warms up to something a bit more comfortable.  I wonder how Lake Champlain is doing?  This image from January 18, 2013 doesn't show much ice coverage, but images taken next week should show some closings of the bays and rapid expansion from the shorelines inward.

 

2013Jan18.gif

 

 

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The cold may relax for a day or two next week. But I think it comes back with plenty of snow chances. I am really feeling that February is going to be good for NNE. It may be the best month of winter.

At least your optimistic. I really don't know. Last year was pathetic at 46" total snow. We're only at 50% of that now and it's almost Feb. Unless things improve a lot for snow chances, I could see this turning out worse then last year, which is god-damn awlful. Even with the thaw last week, I think we've hadm ore consecutive days of snow cover  this winter than last, which makes it seem like a better winter, till you look at how little snow we'd had.

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Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

We picked up a tenth of an inch of snow at some point yesterday, which I recorded when I finally headed out to check around 9:00 P.M. last night.

 

We did have some of that diamond dust falling this morning with the cold temperatures – it didn’t look like it was enough to reach a tenth of an inch, but I’ll check later today.

 

There’s only about a week left in January and snowfall for the month is at just 16.8”, so this month could come in quite low relative to average (~40”) depending on how the rest of the month plays out.  The lowest entry in my data set for overall January snowfall is 27.6”, which actually came in ‘07-‘08, a relatively snowy overall season.

 

In terms of season snowfall, it’s currently at 87.9% of average.  Accumulation has certainly been on the slow side the past couple of weeks, but it’s still ahead of where ‘06-‘07 (46.5”), ’11-‘12 (60.7”) and even ‘09-‘10 (70.8”) were for this date.

 

Snowpack, on the other hand is currently well below average at our location.  We’re not in an especially deep snowpack location, but average for this date is roughly 14”, so we’re currently 2.39 S.D. below that.  Since I started keeping records in ‘06-‘07, this is by far the lowest snowpack we’ve had at this point in the season – last season was the previous lowest, being at 10” on this date.  The snowpack was on a fairly typical track at the start of the calendar year, so certainly the settling of the pack from the January thaw followed up by the recent dearth of snowfall, came together to make such a strong deviation.

 

Details from the 9:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 1.9 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

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The cold may relax for a day or two next week. But I think it comes back with plenty of snow chances. I am really feeling that February is going to be good for NNE. It may be the best month of winter.

 

When it comes to snowfall, don’t we want this cold to relax (and not come back)?  I know folks have been somewhat excited for this arctic outbreak, and it’s great in terms of setting up the ice on bodies of water, but in terms of snowfall in NNE, I’d just as soon have a normal or even a bit above normal temperature regime this time of year - and hopefully get the increased moisture that can come along with that air.  Sitting under this arctic stuff seems to just push potential storms to the south.

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Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

We picked up a tenth of an inch of snow at some point yesterday, which I recorded when I finally headed out to check around 9:00 P.M. last night.

 

We did have some of that diamond dust falling this morning with the cold temperatures – it didn’t look like it was enough to reach a tenth of an inch, but I’ll check later today.

 

There’s only about a week left in January and snowfall for the month is at just 16.8”, so this month could come in quite low relative to average (~40”) depending on how the rest of the month plays out.  The lowest entry in my data set for overall January snowfall is 27.6”, which actually came in ‘07-‘08, a relatively snowy overall season.

 

In terms of season snowfall, it’s currently at 87.9% of average.  Accumulation has certainly been on the slow side the past couple of weeks, but it’s still ahead of where ‘06-‘07 (46.5”), ’11-‘12 (60.7”) and even ‘09-‘10 (70.8”) were for this date.

 

Snowpack, on the other hand is currently well below average at our location.  We’re not in an especially deep snowpack location, but average for this date is roughly 14”, so we’re currently 2.39 S.D. below that.  Since I started keeping records in ‘06-‘07, this is by far the lowest snowpack we’ve had at this point in the season – last season was the previous lowest, being at 10” on this date.  The snowpack was on a fairly typical track at the start of the calendar year, so certainly the settling of the pack from the January thaw followed up by the recent dearth of snowfall, came together to make such a strong deviation.

 

Details from the 9:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 1.9 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

 If I recall correctly, we were in the same situation in December.  and then the worm turned the last week of the month.  let's hope for the same.

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It looks like we have a weak system coming down from Canada and working through the Great Lakes.  I wonder if we don't underperform tonight on the cold if this gives us some clouds.  Will Maine also get clouds from the flow backing down from the N?.  Reminds me of the retrograding junk from a couple of winters ago, I remember how fondly out Maine brethren recall that phenomenon.  ^_^

 

Here are the 925 and 850 maps.  Show a small gap in the coldest air.

 

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Back down to -2.6 here in St. J off a high of -1.5 or so during the daytime.  Point/Click for home has been dropped to -25 for tonight.  I still doubt we go that cold.  

 

 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Peacham&state=VT&site=BTV&textField1=44.33&textField2=-72.17&e=1

 

  • Tonight  Clear, with a low around -25. Wind chill values as low as -34. Northwest wind 3 to 7 mph.
  • Thursday  Sunny and cold, with a high near -1. Wind chill values as low as -36. Northwest wind 5 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
  • Thursday Night  Mostly clear, with a low around -15. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
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Looks like the high temp will be 3.9, currently 2.9

-11 is the forecasted low for tonight which would be the coldest since the -12 on 1/24/11

How much of the channel is frozen? I can't tell from the cam.

I'm hoping for -10 to -15 here. Jan 09 and 11 both delivered -17, but I'm not sure I can top that.

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How much of the channel is frozen? I can't tell from the cam.

I'm hoping for -10 to -15 here. Jan 09 and 11 both delivered -17, but I'm not sure I can top that.

That's open water in the middle...  the only ice is along the edge by the Naswa where it's white.  Further down and directly across from the midpoint of our driveway, it abruptly closes up.  Across from the entrance to our driveway and down the length of the bay it's all iced in now.

 

2.2

 

post-18-0-42704100-1358975461_thumb.jpg

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It looks like we have a weak system coming down from Canada and working through the Great Lakes.  I wonder if we don't underperform tonight on the cold if this gives us some clouds.  Will Maine also get clouds from the flow backing down from the N?.  Reminds me of the retrograding junk from a couple of winters ago, I remember how fondly out Maine brethren recall that phenomenon.  ^_^

 

I was watching those clouds on the sat too. Not sure if they'll make it in here.

 

Gon' be a cold one. Thinking -20 give or take for tomorrow morning at the homestead

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-4 F here in St. J.  Just got in from a run.  I had a bunch of moisture wicking ****s with a polartech sweatshirt on top.  I took off the sweatshirt at the end of the run to see that I had a layer of ice across its back from moisture wicking out and then freezing on the outside of the sweatshirt.  I got a good sweat going despite the temp.

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Down to -7 when I got home at 5:15.  I seriously doubt the temp ever got to the 2F from 9 last night, possibly not even to zero, and the wind was gusting into the 20s all day.  If the wind quits, I should make a run at -25; otherwise, another minus teens.  MPR reported -36 this morning in Maine, didn't say from where.

 

13 days this month with snow, and 7 with measurable - one with 4.0" and the other six total all of 1.5".  Total for the season is still right at my avg thru 1/23.

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-11.2F here, down from -7.6 F when I got home 3 hours ago.  Curious to see how low we go.  I think the coldest we have hit in this house is -22F but this is only our 4th winter here.  

 

Clipper looks like it is going south and getting chewed up.

 

 

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Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

We did get a couple more tenths of the arctic-style snow either last night or at some point today.  There’s no obvious weather system around right now, so I’m going to keep all these arctic dustings together as a single event.

 

Details from the 8:30 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: -8.3 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

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