buckeye Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 choo choo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Nope. Where are you getting those numbers from? Tom Brown showed a precip map yesterday on CFTO News at 6. Hinted at snow Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Tom Brown showed a precip map yesterday on CFTO News at 6. Hinted at snow Friday evening. my call: dusting to coating synoptic. Any LES that stretches down from Georgian Bay is bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Nothing worse when the train leaves the station and it is empty..... At least for SW Ontario. This arctic outbreak, on a whole, is looking to be transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro is still extremely stingy with the Sunday/Monday event. Not that it's going to be significant either way but these setups usually seem to be pretty good at wringing out what moisture there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro is still extremely stingy with the Sunday/Monday event. Not that it's going to be significant either way but these setups usually seem to be pretty good at wringing out what moisture there is. Yeah even last winter the Arctic front wrung out whatever moisture there was. Small scale features should become more clear as we get closer to the frontal passage. I can't believe how dry the 12z GFS is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah even last winter the Arctic front wrung out whatever moisture there was. Small scale features should become more clear as we get closer to the frontal passage. I can't believe how dry the 12z GFS is! Hopefully there's enough moisture to work with to at least get some accumulating snow. The high snow ratios would definitely help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah even last winter the Arctic front wrung out whatever moisture there was. Small scale features should become more clear as we get closer to the frontal passage. I can't believe how dry the 12z GFS is! It its very surprising how dry it is what wth what should be a good clipper pattern with wide open lakes. Still long way out though and these situations usually yield some fluffy snow. To the postet asking about .25 qpf...IF u get that NO WAY do you only get 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro is still extremely stingy with the Sunday/Monday event. Not that it's going to be significant either way but these setups usually seem to be pretty good at wringing out what moisture there is. Yeah the 12z GEM and NAM are more bullish so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It its very surprising how dry it is what wth what should be a good clipper pattern with wide open lakes. Still long way out though and these situations usually yield some fluffy snow. To the postet asking about .25 qpf...IF u get that NO WAY do you only get 1-2". Should have said dry through Wednesday, because then it becomes wetter. 2/10 last winter was when that Arctic front delivered more then expected. 2.6" here. The over running moisture along the Clipper warm front sometimes produces more snow than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The NAM and to a lesser extent, the GFS, show some light snow tomorrow morning with the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The NAM and to a lesser extent, the GFS, show some light snow tomorrow morning with the WAA. RGEM also shows some WAA snows for parts of the region tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Should have said dry through Wednesday, because then it becomes wetter. 2/10 last winter was when that Arctic front delivered more then expected. 2.6" here. The over running moisture along the Clipper warm front sometimes produces more snow than expected. GRR NWS discussed this in their discussion this afternoon for tomorrow. Seemed a little bullish that there could be a surprise snow tomorrow. All of the "surprise" snows around here have been fails so far...perhaps this one can do something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We now have likely pops in tomorrow morning for less than an inch of snow. The catch? The next two days featuring highs around 40. Awful, the last thing I thought I would have to worry about wrt snow threats the next week or two would be instant melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RGEM showing a nice area of snow streaking across the northern WI and MI tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Most of the short term models have snow rolling through S WI tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Most of the short term models have snow rolling through S WI tomorrow morning. Yep, strange little disturbance moving through, with such strong WAA on its heels and ready to torch what little snow will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Most of the short term models have snow rolling through S WI tomorrow morning. Yep, strange little disturbance moving through, with such strong WAA on its heels and ready to torch what little snow will fall. Would rather have dry cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Would rather have dry cold. Disagree, I would prefer neither, would actually prefer another sleet storm over either tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yep, strange little disturbance moving through, with such strong WAA on its heels and ready to torch what little snow will fall. Well the main mechanism for the snow is the WAA itself. A short period of moderate snow seems possible if everything comes together. It's a shame that the snow will probably melt before the arctic air hits though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Should have said dry through Wednesday, because then it becomes wetter. 2/10 last winter was when that Arctic front delivered more then expected. 2.6" here. The over running moisture along the Clipper warm front sometimes produces more snow than expected. As crummy as last winter was, Feb 10/11 arctic front was a very exciting event here, by far the highlight of last winter. I remember watching the arctic front on the models all week. Model consensus was for about 0.03-0.05" qpf here with the fronts passage. Then 2-3 days before the front the euro came in with 0.15" qpf and was all by itself, a major outlier. Then a day before the front the NAM had a 0.25" run. In the end we had 4.9" of snow on 0.33" liquid, way more than any model (even now-cast time runs) had shown, and it was by far the best snow of the 2011-12 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yep, strange little disturbance moving through, with such strong WAA on its heels and ready to torch what little snow will fall. not really strange, just a weak little wave rippling through the mean flow and the strong WAA is actually ahead of the wave as it usually is..not "on it's heels" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 This made my weather weenie wag! Sat/sat night I ENVISION A HYBRID OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKEENHANCED SNOW BLOSSOMING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAYAFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION ANDTHERMAL PROFILES BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE CONVECTION. BUT THEBIGGEST DOWNTURN COMES SATURDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED ARCTICBOUNDARY BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREADLAKE SNOWS. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN AS STRONG COLD ADVECTIONCOMBINES WITH A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER TAPPING 40 TO 50 KNOT WINDSALOFT LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW (BLIZZARDCONDITIONS?). RIGHT NOW...HAVE PAINTED SNOW ACCUMS SATURDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTSAND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS I'm anticipating much more than 4-6 by sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Dude, where's my clippers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I'll go on record...this clipper ends the futility streak looking like an increasingly bad call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 0z GGEM was aggressive with the Clipper on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Look children, here's a fail thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Look children, here's a fail thread. You're right about that. LES and the storm at the end of week is what we've now got on the agenda for the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Look children, here's a fail thread. It was a nice try. Hopefully the storm thread for the 24th doesn't suffer the same fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 +TSSN occuring in N-L MI. KGLR 200227Z AUTO 28014G29KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG BKN006 OVC012 M01/M01 A2941 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW TSB12E27 P0005 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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