Train of clippers

[snowstormcanuck]

A series of 3 to possibly 4 clippers are going to be rounding the base of the PV the next week plus. I've noticed a gentle shift south in the 12z guidance today, which is a good trend for most of us. EURO has been especially aggressive with the clipper around 120-144. GFS naso much.

 

So let's see if we can get some snow-cover to make this arctic blast more enjoyable.

[A-L-E-K]

I said it in the record thead, but one of these is going to end ORD's streak

[snowstormcanuck]

I said it in the record thead, but one of these is going to end ORD's streak

 

P002. Radical outlier but at least it looks pretty similar to the 12z EURO.

 

[Stebo]

I will take the radical outlier and my imaginary snow that comes with it.

[Brewers]

I am more interested in the cold air that sets in after these clippers but I'd gladly take some snow cover to truly take advantage of the arctic air.

[wisconsinwx]

A series of 3 to possibly 4 clippers are going to be rounding the base of the PV the next week plus. I've noticed a gentle shift south in the 12z guidance today, which is a good trend for most of us. EURO has been especially aggressive with the clipper around 120-144. GFS naso much.

 

So let's see if we can get some snow-cover to make this arctic blast more enjoyable.

 

The one at 72 looks semi-interesting for the Western Lakes as well on some of the GFS Ensembles.  All I ask for is a couple of inches of snow on the ground for much of next week to see if it influences the temps much, even though it probably won't.  Is that too much to ask?

[A-L-E-K]

P002. Radical outlier but at least it looks pretty similar to the 12z EURO.

 

 

The set-up should be good for at least a few clippers in the region depending on how long the pattern holds.  They're often hard to spot until a couple days out and can materialize quite quick on modeling. 

[Geos]

New GGEM showing a respectable snow swatch out ahead of the Arctic front on D6.

 

 

Quote from LOT on it.

 

LOT Discussion regarding potential clipper Sun/Mon:

 

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...CROSS POLAR FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
BOTH THE EC AND GFS WITH DEEP INROADS OF THE COLDER AIR INTO
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA NEXT WEEK AIDED BY A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC NEGATIVE NAO...BUT MORE SO
DICTATED BY DEEP RIDGING ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA COAST AND
MULTIPLE STRONG LOBES OF VERY ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS WITHIN THE
TROUGH. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW FAR THE COLD AIR WILL
GET SOUTHWARD...AND LIKELY HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN IN LATE JAN
JUST DUE TO HOW THIS WINTER HAS UNFOLDED...IT DOES APPEAR THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE
DURATION OF RESIDENCE HAS LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND THIS SEVEN DAY
FORECAST. ALSO...WITH THE STRONG LOBES THE CHANCE FOR A WOUND UP
CLIPPER OR TWO POTENTIALLY WITH A BURST OF HIGH RATIO SNOW COULD
BE FAVORED IN THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGIONS. THIS IS SEEN IN THE EC AND GFS GUIDANCE...THOUGH WITH
EXPECTED VARIATIONS IN TIME AT THIS DISTANCE. HAVE POPS FOR SUN
INTO MON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

[gosaints]

This may be our only hope. could have some great ratios with them

[A-L-E-K]

This may be our only hope. could have some great ratios with them

 

 

you have a solid 2 months of favorable climo. 

[michsnowfreak]

Good thread idea SSC. I said it several days ago...as sucky as it is to see such meager model qpf, the important thing is that numerous clippers are indeed showing up. And not to mention, conditions may be prime for the relatively warm waters of Lk MI to enhance the snow. Does this mean each L that passes down will explode over the lake? Absolutely not. But this could POSSIBLY be the best old-school clipper pattern we have seen in a long time, just hope that the clippers take varying tracks to give all some love. By old school I mean...the few clippers we have had in recent winters produced some insane snowfall totals but have been infrequent. Growing up in the 1990s here, big storms were much less frequent but clippers were much more frequent, though usually dropping 1-3"/2-4" of snow.

[michsnowfreak]

you have a solid 2 months of favorable climo. 

I think gosaints was referring to the best shot for snow with this arctic blast, not winter as a whole. WE have a solid 2.5 months of favorable snowstorm climo. N MN has a solid 3.5 months.

[A-L-E-K]

I think gosaints was referring to the best shot for snow with this arctic blast, not winter as a whole. WE have a solid 2.5 months of favorable snowstorm climo. N MN has a solid 3.5 months.

 

 

Maybe but picking out clippers is really hard at this range...they're going to happen but we'll have to wait to assses the probabilities with each shot.

[michsnowfreak]

Maybe but picking out clippers is really hard at this range...they're going to happen but we'll have to wait to assses the probabilities with each shot.

that is true. Often times with clippers, models will have significant timing differences less than 24 hours before the clippers arrival.

[weatherbo]

I think gosaints was referring to the best shot for snow with this arctic blast, not winter as a whole. WE have a solid 2.5 months of favorable snowstorm climo. N MN has a solid 3.5 months.

Yes, you're on the positive side on things, but I wouldn't go calling the middle of April- first of May favorable.

[wisconsinwx]

These clippers will be a good proposition for Blackrock.  If he doesn't gain at least a couple inches out of these, along with potential lake effect, he might as well move again.

[michsnowfreak]

Yes, you're on the positive side on things, but I wouldn't go calling the middle of April- first of May favorable.

Im sure N MN has had lots of good snowstorms the 2nd half of April. Not talking sustained winter, just snowstorms. Id say about 2 months is our window here for sustained winter (snow+snowcover) but we have 3 months left to simply get a good snowstorm.

[A-L-E-K]

These clippers will be a good proposition for Blackrock.  If he doesn't gain at least a couple inches out of these, along with potential lake effect, he might as well move again.

 

pretty much a lock for a couple inches.

[Trent]

What will be exciting is that there will always be little impulses that don't get modeled until a day or two out. These little features always have a few tricks up their sleeve with lollipops of moderate to significant accumulations in isolated areas. Some folks will do well, and inevitably new screw zones will be established. But at least it'll be cold and snowing.

[daddylonglegs]

NWS here in La Crosse doesn't seem to excited about accumulsting snow around here.

[IWXwx]

I really hope some often poorly modeled clippers materialize, as the GFS total precip for FWA for the next 16 days is 0.36", all occurring after hr 132.

[A-L-E-K]

I really hope some often poorly modeled clippers materialize, as the GFS total precip for FWA for the next 16 days is 0.36", all occurring after hr 132.

 

 

They will...pretty high confidence on that.  These impulses are hard to pick out but the flow and low level baroclinic zone will be very favorable and DGZ should be quality.

 

On the less exciting front...they'll be particularly moisture starved even for clippers and there is little chance for hybrid storms.

[OntarioWX]

2" of snow. That's all I ask for. A nice layer to make things look even remotely more wintry outside. Anything less will be depressing to endure this entire cold spell with.

 

2" of snow isn't too much to demand in the middle of January, right?

[BuffaloWeather]

2" of snow. That's all I ask for. A nice layer to make things look even remotely more wintry outside. Anything less will be depressing to endure this entire cold spell with.

 

2" of snow isn't too much to demand in the middle of January, right?

 

Nope not at all. I am hoping these clippers are able to use these abnormally warm lakes to spray the entire area with a nice layer of snow! I am dying for an intense LES band here in Buffalo. Its been 3 years since I've seen one. Usually we get 3-6 intense bands a year! =(

[Nickysixes]

NWS here in La Crosse doesn't seem to excited about accumulsting snow around here.

This side of L Michigan, a totally different story the next 2 weeks or so. Fluffy pixie dust but snow nonetheless

[SchaumburgStormer]

2" of snow. That's all I ask for. A nice layer to make things look even remotely more wintry outside. Anything less will be depressing to endure this entire cold spell with.

2" of snow isn't too much to demand in the middle of January, right?

Haha, I would love 2". As much as I may regret saying this, I just want enough to shovel!

[TugHillMatt]

These clippers will be a good proposition for Blackrock.  If he doesn't gain at least a couple inches out of these, along with potential lake effect, he might as well move again.

LOL... Maybe in a couple years.... My dream is to own a bed and breakfast in the UP or the Tughill.

Things are looking better for snow. Thanks for the heads up.

[Thundersnow12]

5 systems on the 18z GFS alone in the next 10 days with the last one being the biggest. Once in awhile you'll get one of these low amplitude waves to really overperform thanks to the tight thermal gradient along the arctic front.

[Harry Perry]

5 systems on the 18z GFS alone in the next 10 days with the last one being the biggest. Once in awhile you'll get one of these low amplitude waves to really overperform thanks to the tight thermal gradient along the arctic front.

Nothing like 2-4" forecast and ending up 5-6". Possibly the best feeling in the weather world.

[Jonger]

Nothing like 2-4" forecast and ending up 5-6". Possibly the best feeling in the weather world.

Do we now have a second Harry in Battle Creek?