Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Storm Obs and discussion 1/15-1/16


Mr Torchey

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 589
  • Created
  • Last Reply


-8C H85? lol

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 1211 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN UNEXPECTED BAND

FORMING NORTH OF THIS MORNINGS MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD...NOW

LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW

YORK. ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT STILL ON

TRACK FROM THIS MORNING WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" EXPECTED BY

THIS EVENING...AND NOW LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES ACROSS

NORTHERN VERMONT AND NEW YORK AS WELL. HAVE A GREAT AFTERNOON.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And Joe, just be because its drizzling in areas that got good snow earlier doesn't make GFS right. I would argue the snow reported in heavier echoes west say otherwise.

there are times when you can absolutely toss a model, but there's lots of times where you have to take the different things they are good at, account for typical errors etc and then come to a conclusion. 

 

the euro and gfs, imo, were rather 50/50 on this. they had errors in different areas. people are way too IMBY about this.

 

one thing that hurts the GFS's perception is the 4 model runs a day - that offers it more opportunities to have shifts and give the perception that it's crap or inconsistent. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

there are times when you can absolutely toss a model, but there's lots of times where you have to take the different things they are good at, account for typical errors etc and then come to a conclusion. 

 

the euro and gfs, imo, were rather 50/50 on this. they had errors in different areas. people are way too IMBY about this.

 

one thing that hurts the GFS's perception is the 4 model runs a day - that offers it more opportunities to have shifts and give the perception that it's crap or inconsistent. 

 

Yep.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

there are times when you can absolutely toss a model, but there's lots of times where you have to take the different things they are good at, account for typical errors etc and then come to a conclusion. 

 

the euro and gfs, imo, were rather 50/50 on this. they had errors in different areas. people are way too IMBY about this.

 

one thing that hurts the GFS's perception is the 4 model runs a day - that offers it more opportunities to have shifts and give the perception that it's crap or inconsistent. 

 

 

Also gives it the chance to verify easier for a single model run.

 

GFS was too warm at the sfc (shocker), and a bit too aggressive with the ML warming in the morning, but its eventual ML looks pretty good. It just did it too quickly. Euro was too cold aloft, but schooled the GFS on the snow all the way to the E coast of MA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And Joe, just be because its drizzling in areas that got good snow earlier doesn't make GFS right. I would argue the snow reported in heavier echoes west say otherwise.

A blend was a nice way to go as usual, to say the gfs was not useful is incorrect which has been said here today.  The euro was too cold and the gfs too warm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A blend was a nice way to go as usual, to say the gfs was not useful is incorrect which has been said here today. The euro was too cold and the gfs too warm.

So we got an inch or two of snow back in Fairfield? I'm in NYC right now and didn't even get to see a flake of snow.

I saw the 3.5 report at bdr, but I doubt that's accurate

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WAWA isn't raining...its fzdz

 

 

fair weather skiers, probably a frz drizzle back to flakes situation.

 

 

 

well...when you take 3 kids to go skiing, all under the age of 11...and it's only 1 parent...the weather does count for something...you do whatever saves your sanity...and if only skiing a half day is what it takes, then god bless, LOL!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So we got an inch or two of snow back in Fairfield? I'm in NYC right now and didn't even get to see a flake of snow.

I saw the 3.5 report at bdr, but I doubt that's accurate

big spread in town...3 inches north end where I am and roughly an inch or 1.5 down at the beach...and LOL at the 3.5 at BDR.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just got home...saw a couple of bad accidents today.

-SN now and we're in the suckerhole currently, but 3.6" new with only 0.25" water equiv. According to my gf there was good snow growth late morning into the early afternoon.

 

The overwhelming majority of our phone calls today involved some turn of the phrase "extra slippery snow." I mean we have an advisory up for hazardous travel conditions, and this isn't the first time it's ever snowed near 32 degrees with some slushy melting on the roads.

 

Time of day clearly didn't help things, with people rolling out of bed and getting on the snow covered roads. Maybe the torch got to people?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The overwhelming majority of our phone calls today involved some turn of the phrase "extra slippery snow." I mean we have an advisory up for hazardous travel conditions, and this isn't the first time it's ever snowed near 32 degrees with some slushy melting on the roads.

 

Time of day clearly didn't help things, with people rolling out of bed and getting on the snow covered roads. Maybe the torch got to people?

I drove home with 4x4 and at 50-55mph with mostly slushy lanes on I93. I passed a bad accident near exit 16 going north about an hour ago...it was 2 or 3 cars. Anyways, even at that speed I had people flying by me and I was holding up the slow lane (which is rare for my driving). People are just morons sometimes.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The overwhelming majority of our phone calls today involved some turn of the phrase "extra slippery snow." I mean we have an advisory up for hazardous travel conditions, and this isn't the first time it's ever snowed near 32 degrees with some slushy melting on the roads.

 

Time of day clearly didn't help things, with people rolling out of bed and getting on the snow covered roads. Maybe the torch got to people?

This morning's drive south from Portland was brutal. I think it was a combination of the timing and the fact that, because it wasn't billed as a blockbuster storm and didn't prompt any closures, you had the full volume of people on the roads trying to drive like they normally would on dry pavement.

 

I'll also add that, at least anecodotally, a lot of people along the coast were assuming it would be raining this morning. Don't know if that was based on local media forecasts, or just the assumption that it wouldn't be cold enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This morning's drive south from Portland was brutal. I think it was a combination of the timing and the fact that, because it wasn't billed as a blockbuster storm and didn't prompt any closures, you had the full volume of people on the roads trying to drive like they normally would on dry pavement.

 

I'll also add that, at least anecodotally, a lot of people along the coast were assuming it would be raining this morning. Don't know if that was based on local media forecasts, or just the assumption that it wouldn't be cold enough.

 

This is the battle we as meteorologists wage. It wasn't billed as a big storm because it isn't a big storm. It's a standard advisory type snow event, nothing really all that special about it. If we were to play up the significance of the storm we run into problems when a big nor'easter really tracks up the coast. That's how you end up with tornado emergencies and the like, "no this time we really mean it."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This morning's drive south from Portland was brutal. I think it was a combination of the timing and the fact that, because it wasn't billed as a blockbuster storm and didn't prompt any closures, you had the full volume of people on the roads trying to drive like they normally would on dry pavement.

 

I'll also add that, at least anecodotally, a lot of people along the coast were assuming it would be raining this morning. Don't know if that was based on local media forecasts, or just the assumption that it wouldn't be cold enough.

We all lead busy lives now. Rush rush rush. There's not enough time in the morning to allow yourself an extra 20-30 mins to get to where you need to go. People get perturbed when they can't drive 80mph.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...