Hoosier Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 With the impending cold blast and the prospect of not much snow to go along with it, I wanted to take a look at local occurrence of below zero temperatures with little or no snowcover. I used the local COOP site with data from 1901-2012 as this provides the most complete record for the area. This does not take upstream snow cover into account, which is an important factor in how quickly an airmass modifies. Here is a table showing various low temperature occurrences with snow depths ranging from 0 to 2". I combined 0 and T since there is really not much difference between those two categories. Between 1901-2012, there were 348 days with temps below zero and snow cover of 2" or less, which averages out to just over 3 days per year. That is just the average... some years had many such days, other years had none. This site is located northwest of LAF proper, so it is entirely possible that it overstates the frequency to some extent but I wouldn't expect there to be a major difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nice stats table! Basically proves the more snow you have on the ground, the better chance for lower temperatures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nice stats table! Basically proves the more snow you have on the ground, the better chance for lower temperatures! Also notice the slower dropoff from -1 to -5, -6 to -10 etc in the 2" column compared to the other depths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Also notice the slower dropoff from -1 to -5, -6 to -10 etc in the 2" column compared to the other depths. O yeah there's a correlation too. Then the increase in the next row down from T - 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Before seeing this data, I would have thought it was essentially impossible to get colder than -5 with no snow cover even in Chicago...and therefore even more difficult to do this in LAF due to latitude. But in LAF, it happened 42 times in 110 years. Were there a lot of cold/dry winters in the 1970s and 1980s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Before seeing this data, I would have thought it was essentially impossible to get colder than -5 with no snow cover even in Chicago...and therefore even more difficult to do this in LAF due to latitude. But in LAF, it happened 42 times in 110 years. Were there a lot of cold/dry winters in the 1970s and 1980s? I'll have to get back to you. I have the list of all of the days (forgot to mention in the original post that I left off some that were obvious errors...like there would be 6" of snow and snow depth would be listed as 0" despite temps never going above freezing...that was an issue especially in some of the early years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Cool stats Hoosier! I should do something for Detroit with this stuff. Im curious to see what the coldest temp with 0 or T snowcover here was. With this cold coming, Ill be fine with light snowcover, but P*SSED with no snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I just checked CLE and it hasn't gotten below 5 without snow. In fact a sub 10 degree reading without snow on ground has happened only 13 times. So cold and no snow is rather rare here considering you've got 1000s of sub 10 readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I just checked CLE and it hasn't gotten below 5 without snow. In fact a sub 10 degree reading without snow on ground has happened only 13 times. So cold and no snow is rather rare here considering you've got 1000s of sub 10 readings. Do you mean -5F and -10F or 5F and 10F above zero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Do you mean -5F and -10F or 5F and 10F above zero? 5 and 10 above zero. It really is amazing. It shows how common it is to have snow pack here in winter and how it can't get cold without it. Jan 7, 1971 was the coldest day without snow here. The high was 19 and low was 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The lakes are killing the cold.... The models show it hitting the lakes and just getting buzz sawed. I'm guessing the lake regions are going to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 5 and 10 above zero. It really is amazing. It shows how common it is to have snow pack here in winter and how it can't get cold without it. Jan 7, 1971 was the coldest day without snow here. The high was 19 and low was 5. Amazing stuff. Of course you have a lot of lake modification where you're at but that is still amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 5 and 10 above zero. It really is amazing. It shows how common it is to have snow pack here in winter and how it can't get cold without it. Jan 7, 1971 was the coldest day without snow here. The high was 19 and low was 5. Since you guys get lake effect frequently over there, maybe the reason for no cold without snowcover is because anytime it gets that cold, you usually get enough lake effect snow to cover the ground. I would imagine an area like Traverse City would be similiar. I doubt it would ever be in the single digits there with no snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Believe it or not St. Louis has not had an official low below 0 since January 1999, There have been a few occurrences of lows right at 0, but not below. Even more remarkable is that back in 1996, on Feb. 3 the low in St Louis was -11. There was no snow on the ground. I find that astounding, that airmass was incredibly frigid, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Before seeing this data, I would have thought it was essentially impossible to get colder than -5 with no snow cover even in Chicago...and therefore even more difficult to do this in LAF due to latitude. But in LAF, it happened 42 times in 110 years. Were there a lot of cold/dry winters in the 1970s and 1980s? Because of the lake, it probably is harder to get below 0F temps with little or no snowcover in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Here is the data for Detroit. I started in 1900 because I do not have all the snowcover data from 1880-1899. I decided to do it simple. Below zero days with a snowdepth of 0, a snowdepth of T, and a snowdepth of 1". I did it in chronological order and included the date, high, and low temp. Below 0 days with a snowdepth of 0 Feb 05, 1913…11…-2 Feb 02, 1996…10…-2 Feb 03, 1996…..8…-7 Feb 04, 1996…11…-5 Below 0 days with a snowdepth of T Jan 31, 1900….11…-2 Jan 05, 1912…..5….-4 Jan 06, 1912…..5….-2 Jan 07, 1912…..3….-2 Feb 21, 1918…14…-2 Feb 10, 1934…29…-4 Jan 19, 1940…..5….-9 Jan 07, 1942…..3….-5 Jan 08, 1942…..7….-4 Jan 10, 1942….14…-2 Mar 03, 1943…12…-1 Jan 25, 1961….18…-1 Feb 22, 1963…11…-1 Feb 04, 1970…23…-1 Jan 19, 1971….20…-2 Dec 03, 1976…21…-3 Jan 06, 1979….18…-1 Mar 02, 1980…26…-1Dec 12, 1988…22…-2 Feb 05, 1995…11…-2 Feb 12, 1995…16…-1 Jan 27, 2003….15…-2 Below 0 days with a snowdepth of 1" Dec 16, 1901….8…..-1 Dec 19, 1901…14….-1 Dec 21, 1901…10….-6 Feb 02, 1906…11….-2 Jan 17, 1916….10….-2 Feb 02, 1917…11….-3 Feb 03, 1917…15….-3 Jan 05, 1924….10….-1 Jan 06, 1924….16….-7 Jan 29, 1926….33….-4 Jan 13, 1929….12….-1 Feb 08, 1934…..2…-11 Feb 09, 1934…..4…-16 Feb 27, 1934…15….-4 Jan 18, 1940….11….-6 Feb 15, 1943…10….-3 Jan 23, 1948…...8….-5 Jan 09, 1962….17….-3 Jan 10, 1962….14….-4 Jan 05, 1968….22….-6 Jan 01, 1969….12….-4 Jan 31, 1971…..8…..-5 Feb 01, 1971….9…..-7 Feb 02, 1971…12….-9 Dec 02, 1976…24…-2 Jan 07, 1977….23….-1 Jan 02, 1979….22….-4 Jan 03, 1979….10….-4 Jan 10, 1982…..3…..-8 Jan 11, 1982….11….-6 Jan 27, 1986….10….-4 Feb 04, 2007…..8….-2 Feb 05, 2007…12….-4 Feb 06, 2007…12….-3 SUMMARY 1900 - 2012 There have been.... 4 below zero days with a snowdepth of 0 22 below zero days with a snowdepth of T 34 below zero days with a snowdepth of 1" The 26 days with 0/T snowcover obviously must have been brutal. Notes.... February 1934 was a brutal month. With a mean temp of 14.8F, it is Detroits 2nd coldest Feb on record, only behind 1875. The total snowfall for the month only amounted to 5.1" and snow depth never exceeded 2". Of the months 28 days....5 had 0 snwdpth, 3 had a T depth, 14 had 1" depth, & 6 had 2" depth. Not fun. Many of the below zero days with bare or nearly bare ground were just a few degrees below zero. Only 4 times has Detroit got to -5F or colder with 0/T snowdepth -9F on Jan 19, 1940 -7F on Feb 3, 1996 -5F on Jan 7, 1942 -5F on Feb 4, 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Jan 15th 1972 Milwaukee had a high of -13° and a low of -22° with a trace of snow on the ground, pretty remarkable. In fact that January had 11 days with subzero lows with 2" or less snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Another intersting fact is the string of dates (or the duration) increases with snow and sub zero temps. If we hit sub zero with this cold forecated it would be the first time ever with no snow in the month of January. Perhaps the Detroit burbs might have a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Another intersting fact is the string of dates (or the duration) increases with snow and sub zero temps. If we hit sub zero with this cold forecated it would be the first time ever with no snow in the month of January. Perhaps the Detroit burbs might have a trace. The Detroit area had a 0.5-2" snowfall on Jan 5/6 and a T on several other days. Then again...Id say no measurable snow falling during the cold blast is EXTREMELY unlikely. What would be interesting (and kinda suck lol) is if we started the month with a nice, solid snowpack with snowbanks everywhere, and very marginal, run-of-the-mill cold...then get a lighter snowcover for the vodka cold. Any snow better than no snow! STATION: DETROIT MI MONTH: JANUARY YEAR: 2013 LATITUDE: 42 13 N LONGITUDE: 83 20 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND================================================================================1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MINDY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR================================================================================ 1 31 12 22 -4 43 0 0.00 0.0 6 8.1 16 310 M M 8 22 320 2 24 7 16 -10 49 0 T T 5 7.3 15 200 M M 9 17 190 3 31 14 23 -3 42 0 T T 4 11.2 20 210 M M 10 8 23 250 4 30 22 26 0 39 0 T T 4 16.3 25 230 M M 4 32 220 5 34 14 24 -2 41 0 0.03 0.5 4 8.0 17 200 M M 5 1 22 200 6 36 33 35 9 30 0 0.01 0.1 4 11.6 20 220 M M 10 18 22 230 7 35 27 31 5 34 0 0.00 0.0 4 12.0 13 180 M M 6 16 180 8 36 22 29 3 36 0 0.00 0.0 3 6.9 10 150 M M 9 18 13 140 9 48 25 37 11 28 0 T 0.0 3 13.8 24 250 M M 4 18 35 25010 41 26 34 8 31 0 0.01 0.0 1 4.3 12 120 M M 7 15 6011 58 36 47 21 18 0 0.73 0.0 T 10.9 25 210 M M 9 1 31 21012 59 40 50 25 15 0 T 0.0 0 9.1 18 210 M M 9 1 23 22013 51 33 42 17 23 0 0.85 T 0 8.6 21 10 M M 10 1 26 1014 33 22 28 3 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.0 21 270 M M 8 30 270 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Jan 15th 1972 Milwaukee had a high of -13° and a low of -22° with a trace of snow on the ground, pretty remarkable. In fact that January had 11 days with subzero lows with 2" or less snow on the ground. insane!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Before seeing this data, I would have thought it was essentially impossible to get colder than -5 with no snow cover even in Chicago...and therefore even more difficult to do this in LAF due to latitude. But in LAF, it happened 42 times in 110 years. Were there a lot of cold/dry winters in the 1970s and 1980s? Here's a breakdown of the -6F and colder days with 0" or a T: 1901: 1 1912: 2 1917: 2 1919: 1 1942: 2 1962: 2 1963: 4 1966: 4 1967: 2 1969: 2 1970: 1 1971: 2 1978: 1 1986: 1 1988: 4 1994: 2 1996: 6 2007: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Tough to say how cold it gets next week around here. It's not really able to be answered until we see how much snow there is. Figuring in model biases in these setups and looking back at some similar airmasses with snow and no snow, my early thoughts are that lows could be around or just below zero if no snow and around -10 or possibly colder if we lay down a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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