eyewall Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised if this comes to positing HRRR and RAP graphics right up until the event in hoping for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised if this comes to positing HRRR and RAP graphics right up until the event in hoping for the best. About typical for most ULL systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Piedmont could use the rain after the bust of the current system. I agree that the NAM COULD end up being more correct with its higher resolution but its also agreed to be one if the most inconsistent models so I don't really know how much trust to put in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 About typical for most ULL systems? Yeah pretty much. Don't forget Water Vapor imagery for tracking the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised if this comes to positing HRRR and RAP graphics right up until the event in hoping for the best. AGREED!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Yeah pretty much. Don't forget Water Vapor imagery for tracking the ULL. Thanks for the reminder!....Robert made mention of this yesterday. I bet this is just a wee bit different than your Vermont storm tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 My first call... Purple:6-12 Blue:1-5 Pink: Under 1inchBlack: Wildcard...heavier accumulation possible per radar watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 From DT: *** ALERT ** ALERT *** 18Z GFS COMES IN COLDER... WETTER .. WHITER ... INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS FOR4" + far eastern TN along the NC Border (Knoxville)all of WESTERN NC ..AT LEAST 2" all of N central NC ... NORTH OF I-40 east of I-95... ...See More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thanks for the reminder!....Robert made mention of this yesterday. I bet this is just a wee bit different than your Vermont storm tracking. Yeah just a bit First time in forever I saw 30:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 From DT: *** ALERT ** ALERT *** 18Z GFS COMES IN COLDER... WETTER .. WHITER ... INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS FOR4" + far eastern TN along the NC Border (Knoxville) all of WESTERN NC .. AT LEAST 2" all of N central NC ... NORTH OF I-40 east of I-95... ...See More Failure at Geography. That's no snow for Knoxville. We're about 1.5 hours from the NC/TN border and that is a large difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Add the Euro EPS control run to models that show snow for NC. It does screw the folks in the foothills though but cashes CLT so I'm buying it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THE 12Z NAM WAS STRONGER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE ALOFT, WHICH LEADS TO A MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z NAM LIES ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH ITS SURFACE LOW SOLUTION (WITH THE 12Z GFS NOT THAT FAR BEHIND WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST), AND EVEN THE 09Z SREF ARGUES FOR A WEAKER SOLUTION ALOFT/MORE DEPRESSED SURFACE LOW TRACK, WHICH IS WORTH NOTING CONSIDERING ITS NUMBER OF MEMBERS WITH WRF PHYSICS (THAT WOULD OTHERWISE FORECAST A STRONGER SOLUTION ALOFT). THE SYSTEM SHOULD SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, MOVING UNDER THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AT THAT TIME, WHICH ARGUES AGAINST A NAM-LIKE SOLUTION. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-NAM COMPROMISE SOLUTION (WHICH EFFECTIVELY DEALS WITH UNCERTAINTIES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE) WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THE 12Z NAM WAS STRONGER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE ALOFT, WHICH LEADS TO A MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z NAM LIES ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH ITS SURFACE LOW SOLUTION (WITH THE 12Z GFS NOT THAT FAR BEHIND WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST), AND EVEN THE 09Z SREF ARGUES FOR A WEAKER SOLUTION ALOFT/MORE DEPRESSED SURFACE LOW TRACK, WHICH IS WORTH NOTING CONSIDERING ITS NUMBER OF MEMBERS WITH WRF PHYSICS (THAT WOULD OTHERWISE FORECAST A STRONGER SOLUTION ALOFT). THE SYSTEM SHOULD SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, MOVING UNDER THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AT THAT TIME, WHICH ARGUES AGAINST A NAM-LIKE SOLUTION. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-NAM COMPROMISE SOLUTION (WHICH EFFECTIVELY DEALS WITH UNCERTAINTIES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE) WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Well thought out and makes a lot of sense. I don't like it, but its a great discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 That was the HPC's take on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Add the Euro EPS control run to models that show snow for NC. It does screw the folks in the foothills though but cashes CLT so I'm buying it RDU? Please, please Burger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 From GSP earlier on the NC Mtns. for Thursday evening and Friday THIS IS A FOURTH PERIOD EVENT...AND AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLYBELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THEREFOR I WON/T ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCHWITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...A WATCHISN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH LATER PACKAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 When does the water vapor porn start? That is always my favorite part of the tracking process. (fap) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 RDU? Please, please Burger! Nope, just south Harnett county and SW of there to CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 When does the water vapor porn start? That is always my favorite part of the tracking process. (fap) I am starting to enjoy what I read every time you post. You and Valkhorn's recognition that DT somehow thinks Knoxville is now located up on the top of Mt. Leconte in the eastern TN mountains. The Knoxville contibutors on this board are quality. Ali: "It's gown snow in Mountains" - "thanks Ali" (to keep this off banter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well thought out and makes a lot of sense. I don't like it, but its a great discussion. Tnw...looks like we are sitting on the sidelines at this point. NAM looks too wound up. These systems burn us nine time out of ten. Johnson City might get a dusting. Kingsport is just too far NW on all models. Still room for changes as these types of lows are notoriously fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just looking at the 12z and 18z ENS members and a good bit of them give good snows to NC. I said it as soon as it looked like a legit ULL that it will come down to a wire and we won't know until it's actually raining or snowing. Here's to hoping the SREF is wrong and the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just looking at the 12z and 18z ENS members and a good bit of them give good snows to NC. I said it as soon as it looked like a legit ULL that it will come down to a wire and we won't know until it's actually raining or snowing. Here's to hoping the SREF is wrong and the NAM is right. Not only that, but there definitely seem to be more members with a snowy look on the 18z than on the 12z, even though the operational 18z looked pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 figured what the blank right... here's a first call even though this upper-low isn't a powerhouse capable of producing an expansive cold-core, these are some heavy a$$ precip rates and the thermal profile across Western NC will be overcome... some people will get popped I'm as big of a snow weenie as anyone else, but don't hold the messenger at weenie if this isn't IYBY friendly Thanks for posting. Like Don said still a lot of ifs but getting pretty stoked about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I am starting to enjoy what I read every time you post. You and Valkhorn's recognition that DT somehow thinks Knoxville is now located up on the top of Mt. Leconte in the eastern TN mountains. The Knoxville contibutors on this board are quality. Ali: "It's gown snow in Mountains" - "thanks Ali" (to keep this off banter) The feeling is mutual I assure you my friend, I enjoy what you bring to the table. Yep, some geographical funny business going on there for sure. DT cracks my arse up. Us over in the central valley are very used to being screwed on storms. We've learned to just try to not take any weather very seriously. We roll with the punches and eventually get a nader or a token flizzard as reward for our patience, for better or for worse. (to keep this off banter) Really hoping we see the 4th NAM run in a row give us *something*. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Tnw...looks like we are sitting on the sidelines at this point. NAM looks too wound up. These systems burn us nine time out of ten. Johnson City might get a dusting. Kingsport is just too far NW on all models. Still room for changes as these types of lows are notoriously fickle. Unfortunately I agree, but it wouldn't take a big shift in track and strength to put us a lot closer to a couple of heavy wet inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 RDU? Please, please Burger! It's hard to tell, at hour 60 the 850 line kind of runs up 77, than down I40 and than up I85, at hour 66 the 850's have crashed and there is blob of precip over central NC, RDU has roughly 0.50-0.75" of precip between 60-66. It definitely hits the mountains hard. 2m Temps haven't updated yet but the 0z run had them in mid-30's when the 850's crashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks for posting. Like Don said still a lot of ifs but getting pretty stoked about this one. I like the track for WNC....I would not change that at all. The question that is on everyone's mind is, "Have the models realized the dynamics correctly?" Is this as cold as we are going to see modeled from this system? I can't say for certain but, I have seen ULL's do some pretty surprising things in the past. Now, granted that was before all the modern forecasting tools we have today....... However, if it's precip rates you are looking for to cool the column, it would appear that rates will not be the problem (at least not here). I will say this...I will be suprised if we don't see some snow (especially if that precip map verifies). How much snow is still a mystery. NAM will be rolling in a few..... It would be nice to see it come in colder with that same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Latest SREF mean has WNC with snow and snow changing over around the CLT area as it is pulling away. Probably has about 2 hours of snow or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 00z coming in stronger 15 has a 3 contour closed low in TX. Looks like it was a two...still looks stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 00z NAM through 18 HR. Contours with this run. Slightly less positive tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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