wncsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 18z is warmer. Pretty much no one outside of higher elevations in the mountains of NC gets snow on this run. 18Z GFS is much warmer and even much of the mountains would struggle with this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Curious why its warmer if its keeps the low closed for a longer period of time? I thought thats what we wanted? Closed all the way into South Carolina this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 then why is gsp in the long range saying little or no snow accum for asheville and vicinity, are they being real conservative right now? What do you mean by LR? They certainly would not be basing a forecast solely on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 then why is gsp in the long range saying little or no snow accum for asheville and vicinity, are they being real conservative right now? Because the afd was written before the 18Z run. & they said they were not relying on it much as they thought it was a outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Curious why its warmer if its keeps the low closed for a longer period of time? I thought thats what we wanted? Closed all the way into South Carolina this run. Looked like it was throwing a ton of WAA up in front of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think he means the "long range.... days two through seven" part of the forecast discussion. That's what I thought but wanted to be sure. And it looks like Don gave an answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Far from a clear cut system when you see that snow shadow over the foothills...marginal and difficult system to forecast for the Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I am under no delusion that we will see a large winter storm; but just for model curiosity, the 18z GFS does show the 850 line running through northern NC. **It might now be showing the wetter solution but still does not have the temps correct. NAM (short term) has done better (in past events) with temp profiles than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Lot of heat to tap just south of NC It was winter vs summer today over Carolinas with 80 degrees just south of Charlotte in middle South Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I find it interesting that the 18Z GFS has warmer surface temps when it depicts the 500 mb closed low further south than does the 18Z NAM. I would think the GFS run would allow for more cold air to bleed down from the north and not push as much warm air in front of it as far north. Am I wrong on this analysis? 18Z NAM at hour 54: 18Z GFS at hour 54: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This 18z run makes nearly zero sense. I'd be curious to see what the mets have to say about this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1227 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086- 089>098-102>113-161200- DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW- CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB- NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES- HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON- NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON- SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP- MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON- GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS- WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY- MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER- SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER- MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS- 1227 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD AMPLE GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD... RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A DEEP COLD AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA IF SUFFICIENT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CAN SPREAD BACK INTO THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DESPITE WARM GROUNDS FROM RECENT UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT STRONG UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING... BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY OVER ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW COULD BE SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE... IT APPEARS THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND THE I-85 CORRIDOR EAST OF ATLANTA. AT THIS TIME... NO WIDESPREAD TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE INITIAL SNOWFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF BLACK ICE DEVELOPING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINTER WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. $$ So Atlanta may see some token snows. I'll take it but also believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 DT just posted on FB that the 18Z GFS just came in colder, wetter, and whiter with at least 2 inches for all of N. Central NC, including the Triad and Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Chances rising considerably in WNC. May see a Winter Storm Watch soon...but when that happens you have to take it to the obs thread, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Robert just posted he aint buying the temps the GFS is selling. Feels confident now someone in WNC is gonna get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think everyone's a little too hung up on the 2m projections. These upper lows are always fickle and totally reliant on precip rates. The longer it stays cutoff, the more chance there will be it drags down cold air aloft and we get a isothermal type layer. Thus, some wet snow. I think the Mountains/Foothills and northern NC has the best chance. The models could easily be underdoing the cold air at the sfc with this still a few days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Guys we still have time for this to trend much colder, it's not going to take much of a drop in temps to change a lot. I think the NAM is on to something. I'm sitting good in Boone, but with all this rain we have had a wet snow will be devastating to trees up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Robert just posted he aint buying the temps the GFS is selling. Feels confident now someone in WNC is gonna get hammered. Me either...when I saw this on the GFS compared to the NAM I was like "dafuq?" Cold air simply vanishes, no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Me either...when I saw this on the GFS compared to the NAM I was like "dafuq?" Cold air simply vanishes, no snow. My thoughts exactly. Granted my specialty is not winter weather at all but I've noticed the GFS doing this with this storm for the last 6 or 7 runs. Everything cruises along as usual and then poof the cold air vanishes the minute it crosses into GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1227 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013 So Atlanta may see some token snows. I'll take it but also believe it when I see it. And even the weather service thinks there's just dragons done here, lol. If the Ull goes over down here, it might be melting snow dragons. I 20 is not where the flat earth ends, thought they did give a token nod to LaGrange. What's funny to me is for all your doubts, Marietta will get some for sure if anyone does, lol. I'm much more interested in the fact cold air seems to be coming for real....now to wait for the space between the cold shots, where some rain might be able to work up. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Robert just posted he aint buying the temps the GFS is selling. Feels confident now someone in WNC is gonna get hammered. And that might even be a little bit conservative after what I read on his FB. Hoping for the best...know **** can hit the fan and go wrong next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I hate to be completely clueless here and ask this, but what is Robert's facebook page? Does anyone have a link? I'll delete this if not appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I hate to be completely clueless here and ask this, but what is Robert's facebook page? Does anyone have a link? I'll delete this if not appropriate. https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth?fref=ts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 figured what the blank right... here's a first call even though this upper-low isn't a powerhouse capable of producing an expansive cold-core, these are some heavy a$$ precip rates and the thermal profile across Western NC will be overcome... some people will get popped I'm as big of a snow weenie as anyone else, but don't hold the messenger at weenie if this isn't IYBY friendly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1227 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086- 089>098-102>113-161200- DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW- CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB- NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES- HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON- NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON- SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP- MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON- GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS- WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY- MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER- SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER- MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS- 1227 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD AMPLE GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD... RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A DEEP COLD AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA IF SUFFICIENT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CAN SPREAD BACK INTO THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DESPITE WARM GROUNDS FROM RECENT UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT STRONG UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING... BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY OVER ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW COULD BE SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE... IT APPEARS THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND THE I-85 CORRIDOR EAST OF ATLANTA. AT THIS TIME... NO WIDESPREAD TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE INITIAL SNOWFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF BLACK ICE DEVELOPING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINTER WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. $$ So Atlanta may see some token snows. I'll take it but also believe it when I see it. And there goes all the milk, bread, and water in the Atlanta stores....the news affiliates and papers already picking up on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 figured what the blank right... here's a first call even though this upper-low isn't a powerhouse capable of producing an expansive cold-core, these are some heavy a$$ precip rates and the thermal profile across Western NC will be overcome... some people will get popped Thunderstorm potential exists...from what I am seeing with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 figured what the blank right... here's a first call even though this upper-low isn't a powerhouse capable of producing an expansive cold-core, these are some heavy a$$ precip rates and the thermal profile across Western NC will be overcome... some people will get popped I'm as big of a snow weenie as anyone else, but don't hold the messenger at weenie if this isn't IYBY friendly Still a lot of "ifs" & "buts"......sure do like the looks of that as a first call map Andy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 looks good to me andy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The parent high is certainly in better position than the runs we saw early on. With that said I have only had a real quick look and I notice a little low on the run in western NY. I think in part the run has this disrupting some of the northerly flow needed for a CAD setup. Whether this little caveat is a blip remains to be seen. With that said it is going to take all of the dynamical cooling we can get with ULL and deform band to see anything in Central NC. Obviously a meso model is probably a better capture for such physics as opposed to a 40km grid but we shall we. I am still not holding out a great deal of hope outside of the mountains. Many will still be shooting blanks by the time this thing is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Way to take the 1st step Andy! Will be a fun and fast one to watch ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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