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January 17th-18th Winter Storm Discussion


BullCityWx

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Time to close this thread off.

Again, mother nature and old man winter schools both amateurs, pros and veterans alike that modelology is not to be confused with meteorology.

All the younger posters that post incessantly on each model run can learn as the board veterans did back in college that atmospheric physics is a fun challenging part of our great earth.

Keep the faith that hopefully old man winter will get the job done outside of the mountains and NW Piedmont next time. In the meantime, Friday/Saturday will be a great outdoor sportsmans day in the High Country. Head on up and enjoy the snow!

And THANKS for the many hours of posting with everyone's thoughts on this storm.

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Definitely back to the drawing board for the Upstate of South Carolina cause we surely got shafted.

 

Tell me about it man, I'm in the Midlands..but it seems over the last while it's always a gulf low too suppressed or a clipper not cold enough or an ULL screw job for you guys.

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No two storms are alike, but this looks very similar to the 02/15/04 storm, but with higher totals in the mtns, and the overall amounts shifted slightly south.  

 

I think Charlotte pretty much gets fringed...dusting to an inch (GSP is going with 2-4 inches).  In central NC, I like the highest amounts on the counties bordering NC/VA.

 

Kudos Grit, you nailed this one. 

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Kudos Grit, you nailed this one. 

 

Grit,

 

Impressive man....................good job and thank you for the contributions to the board that you make.  EXTREMELY tough forecast with this one!

 

Thanks guys, appreciate it.  After all the 12z data came in, I changed to 0-1 inch for Charlotte.  A better forecast would have been Trace to Dusting.  It's all in fun.  Don't know that I've ever seen 2 storms turn out so similar as this one compared to 02/15/04 (for NC that is)

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I meant to mention this yesterday  but I have NO idea what FFC was thinking yesterday. 1 to 3 inches, for example, was forecasted for hall county...yet they were going to be right in the middle of that warm bubble all of the models were showing from 925mb to the surface. It was just so obvious north ga (gainesville, lower elevations, etc)  wouldn't get much..i mean brasstown bald was 35 all evening for crying out loud (at 3300 feet). All the low level cold air was going to be to the south..it was shown over and over. Not to mention warming at 850mb too.

 

I did think that IF there was enough heavy precip it might could be overcome in some areas (higher elevations that were closer to the cold air to the south) but nothing like ffc was forecasting. And of course there wasn't any (save that band or two in far west ga which local news made it out to be a blizzard :arrowhead:)

 

 It's amazing to me that when things look bleak, ffc jumps on it, when things look good, they go absurdly conservative. I don't understand it.

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