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January 17th-18th Winter Storm Discussion


BullCityWx

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RDU issued a special weather statement:

 

AS OF 700 PM EST...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS BEGUN OVER THETRIAD AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. SPOTTER REPORTS ANDOBSERVATIONAL DATA HAVE CONFIRMED THAT RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOWAT LEXINGTON IN DAVIDSON COUNTY...WINSTON SALEM IN FORSYTHCOUNTY...HIGH POINT AND GREENSBORO IN GUILFORD COUNTY...ANDROXBORO IN PERSON COUNTY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWESTTO SOUTHEAST OVER RANDOLPH...ALAMANCE...ORANGE...DURHAM ANDGRANVILLE COUNTIES BETWEEN 730 AND 830 PM.

 

 

Still seems on schedule. So what was up with the model that everyone was freeking out about showing less snow? Did it show the changeover coming later or less precip or what?

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RDU issued a special weather statement:

 

AS OF 700 PM EST...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS BEGUN OVER THE

TRIAD AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. SPOTTER REPORTS AND

OBSERVATIONAL DATA HAVE CONFIRMED THAT RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW

AT LEXINGTON IN DAVIDSON COUNTY...WINSTON SALEM IN FORSYTH

COUNTY...HIGH POINT AND GREENSBORO IN GUILFORD COUNTY...AND

ROXBORO IN PERSON COUNTY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST

TO SOUTHEAST OVER RANDOLPH...ALAMANCE...ORANGE...DURHAM AND

GRANVILLE COUNTIES BETWEEN 730 AND 830 PM.

Sounds like the changeover is as scheduled, maybe early, hopefully RDU transitions by 9pm.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

722 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

NCZ026>028-041>043-078-089-180200-

FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-SAMPSON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISBURG...NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...

RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...GOLDSBORO...CLINTON

722 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH 900 PM...

AS OF 700 PM EST...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25

MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE AND

COASTAL PLAIN...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. THE RALEIGH DURHAM

AIRPORT REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 39 MPH AT 629 PM...AND POPE AIR

FORCE BASE REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH AT 705 PM. THESE GUSTY

WINDS COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOIL FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY RESULT

IN A FEW DOWNED TREES.

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Still seems on schedule. So what was up with the model that everyone was freeking out about showing less snow? Did it show the changeover coming later or less precip or what?

 

The rap basically started weakening the ULL (after blowing it up last night) and seems like it was right.  Then the NAM started following etc.  It's currently 1 contour and not nearly as large.

 

Also, the RPM model (in-house weather tool in broadcast meteorology) started to show less snow and a late changeover earlier today.

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It's going to be a fun few hours, eh?  1-2"/hr rates! :)

 

I am finally over to all-snow now after wrestling with a snow/sleet mix for 45 minutes or so.

I'm having a blast running from window to window. I have been in thundersnow before but it was only two or three strikes. This was more like a summer storm with frequent lightning for 10 minutes straight. Crazy! I keep thinking about what Robert said yesterday that this might be the heaviest snow rates we may ever experience.

By the way, what radar do you like to use?

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I'm having a blast running from window to window. I have been in thundersnow before but it was only two or three strikes. This was more like a summer storm with frequent lightning for 10 minutes straight. Crazy! I keep thinking about what Robert said yesterday that this might be the heaviest snow rates we may ever experience.

By the way, what radar do you like to use?

 

We live in an area with a metro population of 1.5 million.  We don't deserve a radar station within 100 miles. :axe:

 

I jump between RAX, GSP, and Blacksburg, but we're towards the end of either's range, so it's a crap-shoot.

 

I do use GRLevelX, if you were curious which software I use.

 

And, BOOM, another clap of thunder!

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