NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 since we have many who live in Western NC frequenting this board (Franklin, Don, Met and others)... I'm pulling for them and expect to see a tad more expansive precip field on radar on the northern side of this system compared to what is currently shown on the GFS and Euro although, the heaviest precip will certainly be under the upper low and highest vertical velocities... so being too far north in Western NC might not be as good of a position in this case Balsam Mountains to Cataloochee are my pick to click Thanks Andy, long way to go with more twists & turns I'm sure. People get sick of hearing about the Mnts getting snow, but it hasn't been a bed of roses here. I know 85 & the Boone boys have had some good ones but it has been almost 2 yrs since I have seen anything over a 2" lay. I am not complaining but after 2009-2010, 2010-2011 it has been slim pickins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 We shall see. The NAM soundings indicate change-over to snow by 4pm and quickly ending by 10pm. Gotta figure the first hour or two of any potential snow will be working as a foundation builder for more accumulations. My first guess for AVL is 2-4", again using essentially a blend of the NAM and EURO. GFS is about 200 miles further south with the low than the NAM, so big changes are still possible. In addition, the 06Z run of the GFS had no QPF over the western NC mountains, and now we are "back on " again with the 12Z run. And we are within 48-60 hours of the event starting! GFS soundings, FWIW, show changeover by 2pm, ending by 7pm. Colder but drier is the end result there. 1-2" if you take it at face value. If the 00Z and tomorrow's 12Z NAM/GFS start to converge, look for a WSW by noon tomorrow for the western NC mountains. My winner? Smoky Mountains National Park. 6"? I think balsam gap can hit 6". I could see some 1' foot lollies in the park above 5000ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I thought it helps to be just north of the 700mb low? Is that not the best spot to be for the best rates? yes, meant to type "under and to the nrthwest side of the middle and upper level core" which is also right in line with the north and northwestern side of the 700mb low that's where the highest velocities will be in generating the heaviest precip it would also REALLY help if we had a closed 850mb low in this situation to help wrap in some better mid-level cold, but that tilt negative at 500mb doesnt happen so no closed low at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thanks Andy, long way to go with more twists & turns I'm sure. People get sick of hearing about the Mnts getting snow, but it hasn't been a bed of roses here. I know 85 & the Boone boys have had some good ones but it has been almost 2 yrs since I have seen anything over a 2" lay. I am not complaining but after 2009-2010, 2010-2011 it has been slim pickins. Same here Don, it's went from feast to famine in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 good point brother it pays to stay somewhat optimistic and looking at how things are trending knowing that a few minor changes can put you in the game... too bad this system has a bit of a low ceiling as to how cold the middle and upper levels can get in Charlotte Thursday evening I'm not holding my breath on it that's for sure...but I think Jeremy (QueenCityWx) also brought up an ULL that went through GA. I believe that was also around Feb or March or 2010. IIRC it was supposed to be marginal and really overperformed. IMHO these are the ones that have the highest element of surprise, so I'll just hope for the best.....well at least until the new NAM comes out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 since we have many who live in Western NC frequenting this board (Franklin, Don, Met and others)... I'm pulling for them and expect to see a tad more expansive precip field on radar on the northern side of this system compared to what is currently shown on the GFS and Euro although, the heaviest precip will certainly be under the upper low and highest vertical velocities... so being too far north in Western NC might not be as good of a position in this case Balsam Mountains to Cataloochee are my pick to click We shall see. The NAM soundings indicate change-over to snow by 4pm and quickly ending by 10pm. Gotta figure the first hour or two of any potential snow will be working as a foundation builder for more accumulations. My first guess for AVL is 2-4", again using essentially a blend of the NAM and EURO. GFS is about 200 miles further south with the low than the NAM, so big changes are still possible. In addition, the 06Z run of the GFS had no QPF over the western NC mountains, and now we are "back on " again with the 12Z run. And we are within 48-60 hours of the event starting! GFS soundings, FWIW, show changeover by 2pm, ending by 7pm. Colder but drier is the end result there. 1-2" if you take it at face value. If the 00Z and tomorrow's 12Z NAM/GFS start to converge, look for a WSW by noon tomorrow for the western NC mountains. My winner? Smoky Mountains National Park. 6"? Queue the crazy guy with a fedora and cigar hanging from his mouth - fist full of dollars and shouting to the suddenly raucous crowd for bets (there's always a lot of smoke in these scenes too)... I think somewhere between Brevard and Sylva have a shot to close the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Jeff Crum just posted this from News14 here in CLT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think Saluda/Hendersonville NC will be a mix for most of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think Saluda/Hendersonville NC will be a mix for most of this event. The grade will probably have a tuff time with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Jeff Crum just posted this from News14 here in CLT... (snip) You know you're in the South when TV stations display snowfall maps accurate to a hundredth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The grade will probably have a tuff time with this one. Just too close to the edge of the escarpment, air currents really mix things up, though Saluda has a bit more in elevation than H'ville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Jeff Crum just posted this from News14 here in CLT... Hmmmm....I know it says "snowfall" that those #s look like total precip values. There will be many disappointed by this system and a few very happy...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Old Crum giving some love to his folks around Cleveland county . Jeff Crum just posted this from News14 here in CLT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Stops right at Durham. Not really...just the shading, which is probably .50" Look at Raleigh and Fayetteville, there are amounts in those cities too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GSP's afternoon short term: .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMING INTO BETTERAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM LOW THAT AFFECTS THE REGIONON THURSDAY. BY 00 UTC FRI THE NAM HAS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOWNEAR ANDERSON...WHILE THE GFS HAS IT ONLY ABOUT 50 TO 75 MILESFURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLY MORE TILTWITH THE SYSTEM AS IT HAS THE SFC LOW JUST EAST OF SAVANNAH AT 18UTC THU WHILE THE NAM/S SFC REFLECTION IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN COLUMBIAAND GREENWOOD. GFS IS NOW DEVELOPING A CONSIDERABLE ABOUT OF PCPNALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW. THE NAM HAS BEEN WET ANDCONTINUES TO BRING ABUNDANT PCPN TO JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FA ONTHURSDAY. THE GFS/S HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS OVER NE GA...THE UPSTATE ANDTHE SRN NC PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...IT STILL HAS ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTERINCH OF LIQUID ALONG THE TN LINE TO NEARLY AN INCH OF LIQUIDEQUIVALENT OVER THE SE SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.THE AIRMASS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE WARM. EVEN AS PCPN WILL STARTWEDNESDAY NIGHT...H8 TEMPS FALL ONLY TO AROUND +3 DEG C ON THE GFSNEAR THE TN LINE BY MORNING. THE NAM IS EVEN WARMER. AS STRONGERLIFT DEVELOPS AROUND 12 UTC...PROFILES MOISTEN AND BECOME MOREISOTHERMAL. EVENTUALLY RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHERMTN ELEVATIONS...STARTING NEAR THE TN LINE AND PROGRESSING EASTWARDDURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS NOW HAVE AMEAN SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 3.8 INCHES AT ASHEVILLE DURING THE DAY ONTHURSDAY. I HAVE SEEN THE PLUME DIAGRAMS RUN COLD DURING A COUPLEEVENTS ALREADY THIS WINTER...AND I/M NOT SURE HOW EASY IT WILL BE TOCOOL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS WITH THIS EVENT. I IMAGINE THAT SNOWLEVELS WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET. HOWEVER...A GREATDEAL STILL DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER LOW IS. STRONGER UVV/SCOULD DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN AS SEEN ON THE 12 UTC NAM BUFKITSOUNDING AT KAVL. WEAKER FORCING...IMPLIED BY THE 12 UTCECMWF/GFS...WOULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE DRIVING DOWN SNOW LEVELS.I USED AN SREF/GFS BLEND FOR THE QPF. THIS IS A LITTLE LOWER THANHPC/S...BUT IS STILL MUCH WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. I USEDTHE GFS THERMAL FIELDS TO RUN THE TOP DOWN TOOL FOR PCPN TYPE. THISGIVES ME 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH FALLS DURING THE DAY ONTHURSDAY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET OVER THE SOUTHWEST ANDCENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS ARE A LITTLE LIGHTER ACROSS THE NRNMTNS...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES...THOUGH THEY DO REACH THE VALLEYFLOORS. THIS IS A FOURTH PERIOD EVENT...AND AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLYBELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THEREFOR I WON/T ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCHWITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...A WATCHISN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH LATER PACKAGES.OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES AREMUCH LOWER. THIS IS OWNING TO THE WARM LLVL AIRMASS EAST OF THE MTNSAND WELL AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. IF THE NAM/S STRONGERDEFORMATION ZONE VERIFIED...THEN A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW COULDCERTAINLY AFFECT PARTS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS PREDICATED UPON THE BELIEF THAT THE NAMCONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEECMWF/GFS/SREF SEEM TO BARE THIS OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Raleigh, NC NWS says "no snow for you"... HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC1229 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013NCZ008>010-023>026-038>041-073>076-161730-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-1229 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICOTO OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAYNIGHT. PRIMARILY A COLD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM OVERCENTRAL NC...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEFMIX WITH A LITTLE WET SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN ENDTHURSDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...GIVEN BOTH THEBREVITY OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE...AS WELL AS PRECEDING WARM GROUNDAND ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hmmmm....I know it says "snowfall" that those #s look like total precip values. There will be many disappointed by this system and a few very happy...... LOL that is a terrible map with liquid type amounts given with hundreths. I would like to see the 60+ contour show up one day . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 My pick, as of now, would be Caesars Head to Saluda.... 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Just early on in the NAM it looks a little weaker and more positively tilted @33...it might be a hair south. Very hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GSP's afternoon short term: IF THE NAM/S STRONGER DEFORMATION ZONE VERIFIED...THEN A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW COULD CERTAINLY AFFECT PARTS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS PREDICATED UPON THE BELIEF THAT THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF/GFS/SREF SEEM TO BARE THIS OUT. out to 42 hours... newest 18z NAM weaker at 500mb compared to the 12z version... weakening trend definitely occuring and will probably go toward the GFS as far as vorticity energy... but heavy precip rates are still probable at least the heavy rates provide some optimism in some dynamic cooling outside of Western NC high country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 My pick, as of now, would be Caesars Head to Saluda.... 4-8" Agreed - although the grade itself presents a few obstacles, the elevation rise between C. Head and Saluda - and especially west and north toward Brevard and Pisgah Forest - is considerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 IF THE NAM/S STRONGER DEFORMATION ZONE VERIFIED...THEN A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW COULD CERTAINLY AFFECT PARTS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS PREDICATED UPON THE BELIEF THAT THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF/GFS/SREF SEEM TO BARE THIS OUT. out to 42 hours... newest 18z NAM weaker at 500mb compared to the 12z version... weakening trend definitely occuring and will probably go toward the GFS... but heav precip rates are still probable Interestingly enough it looks colder at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The timing of this thing is really what's gonna hurt folks in NC I'd wager...not good that the onset is coming in the afternoon. It's weaker but colder. Mountains are money on this run. You can see on this run it's trying to phase with some northern energy...nothing huge but that could be why temps are better at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 15z sref a little weaker and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 @54...wow mountains get slammed....everything is good for them at the sfc. Big totals for them on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Wow NAM if the column is cold enough it crushes the MTNS this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Not such a bad run after all on the NAM @57 it's a close call for HKY possibly even CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I will take the NAM @54 hrs here in the foothills! Rain changing to heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 SV painting a strip of snow I-40 north @57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Need to get the NAM to trend more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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