NCWeSU Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Exactly that has always been what the snow maker for us was going to be. We all knew that all this initial heavy precipitation was going to be rain for all in NC outside of the mountains. The show will begin later as the low moves by. I think all will be well. Yes, this will fill in nicely and slowly shift east and weaken over time. Some folks will likely see some heavy snow in the deform zone. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 But some of the NWS discussions talked about the temps dropping big time in a couple of hours. It's just that so much of the forecast depends on the models and it usually ends up being a lot less of a big deal than the models show. I don't know why they have such a hard time with snow around here. But it seems they can't be trusted at all, not even inside 24 hours now. Come on, lets not give up hope before the time it was even supposed to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Brad P is trying to calm the weenieshttp://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/614651_433845446687917_1925117763_o.jpg Liking the redevelopment in the upstate right now.... Winds have really started to HOWL around the last 20 mins. Yep and that band is rotating into NC. Snowing like crazy here now southwest of AVL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Greg Fischel says for RDU not going to snow until wee hours in the morning and he believes The warm ground will limit accumulation. Fishel will always say that until the snow starts coming down. He does the same thing with every single threat. Starts low and chnages it as things go along if it starts snowing. He always plays it safe like that so he won't be accused of crying wolf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yep and that band is rotating into NC. Snowing like crazy here now southwest of AVL! At what elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Fishel will always say that until the snow starts coming down. He does the same thing with every single threat. Starts low and chnages it as things go along if it starts snowing. He always plays it safe like that so he won't be accused of crying wolf. Probably a good strategy for this area because he will be right about 90% of the time simply by default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yep and that band is rotating into NC. Snowing like crazy here now southwest of AVL! At what elevation? 2600' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Probably a good strategy for this area because he will be right about 90% of the time simply by default. I guess so but it still seems a bit weenieish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yep and that band is rotating into NC. Snowing like crazy here now southwest of AVL! Nice! Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I don't trust any individual model, and certainly not at this stage of the game. But certain trends in modeling raises some red flags. Now it could be, and very well might be, off. But I thought it was worth noting. What happened to not trusting the models for dynamically driven storms? If the 850mb temps goes into the snowfall forecast, if the 850mb temp is 0.1 C it will register as rain, when in reality that wouldn't be the case. Couldn't the RAP model not be seeing something here as far as the dynamics of the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 For the triangle I'm worried about that dry slot being a bit more expansive than predicted. It's something to keep an eye on. Unfortunately the deformation band will be weakening as it comes through so we won't get the heavier returns that they will get out west. Still think we have a 2-3 hour window of moderate to heavy snow for the triangle and I think that will give us the 2-4 inches. The best spot will be west toward Winstom-Salem. The concerns I have are the dry slot and less dynamic cooling due to lighter precip. Worst case scenario for the Triangle is we have a weakening deform zone come through similar to what Birmingham got earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Greg Fischel says for RDU not going to snow until wee hours in the morning and he believes The warm ground will limit accumulation. He said it would start around 9-10 in the Triangle and would be over during the wee hours of the morning. Come on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I don't trust any individual model, and certainly not at this stage of the game. But certain trends in modeling raises some red flags. Now it could be, and very well might be, off. But I thought it was worth noting. Gotta report what you see Matt. Models are always going to be models but their is a reason why we use them and especially in house models like you have. They seem to be in the very short term more right than wrong. Hopefully this is one of those rare instances in which they are wrong. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Heavy snow showers now sitting at 34 degrees. Just started as that blossom of returns pivoted into my area. Keep going baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 kvegas-wx in Kernersville just reported snow, for those not checking the OBS thread. Good news, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Gotta report what you see Matt. Models are always going to be models but their is a reason why we use them and especially in house models like you have. They seem to be in the very short term more right than wrong. Hopefully this is one of those rare instances in which they are wrong. Only time will tell. For a while the RPM was availible on Wunderground before TWC bought it out, do you or anyone else know where to view it still that's non-news site related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I don't trust any individual model, and certainly not at this stage of the game. But certain trends in modeling raises some red flags. Now it could be, and very well might be, off. But I thought it was worth noting.Definitely worth noting, I was just playing devils advocate to get some disco from a met! Thanks for your posts Matt, they are always very welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Despite being under some of the best returns on radar in N GA, I have flakes mixing but nothing impressive. The wind? Very impressive. I would guess some gusts approaching 45 MPH. Temps fell with the onset of the heavier precip, which started a some sleet, and fell 8 degrees over about an hour period of time. I have one more good band about to come through and it stretches back to east of Chattanooga. Maybe I will get lucky for about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Just a heads up... The HRRR is back up for any of those who were looking at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 21z RPM rolling in..... it's a disaster for snow fans. It could very well be wrong, but if it's right, everybody's forecast (mine too for sure) is in big trouble. Changeover is a lot slower than I thought it would be so far. The high amounts I thought might be possible this morning are looking unlikely, although I just said it was just a chance. I would think several inches still a good bet but it's a bit surprising at how slow the cold air is working in at the mid levels. The rap is not dropping 925mb temps nearly as fast/much. We'll see though, things can change on a dime. Still think some narrow area gets more though. Has been some patches of clear skies here the last hour. Of course the news out of atlanta is just going crazy over the snow in far west ga. they act as if it's a blizzard. Not bad returns over north ga at the moment, they are increasing a bit for the far north. but even jasper at 2800 feet is still 34 and brasstown at 3500 is 35 so that bubble of warm air the models have been showing is very real it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 ColdRain: he said it would start around 9-10 in the Triangle and would be over during the wee hours of the morning. Come on now. King Wince is lost. I just rewinded it and he said at this point in time, all the precip is in the form of rain. He showed 2 areas of precipitaion that we will expierence, the second area being the comma head in SC. It is that second part of precip from the area now in SC that we will expierence until the wee hours and it is that area that gives us the highest probability of expierencing snow. He never gave a time it will begin. Now, at the 6:20 full forecast he said he is concerned that many of us in Raleigh will no see much. So, you come on now, get your facts straight before jumping on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Despite being under some of the best returns on radar in N GA, I have flakes mixing but nothing impressive. The wind? Very impressive. I would guess some gusts approaching 45 MPH. Temps fell with the onset of the heavier precip, which started a some sleet, and fell 8 degrees over about an hour period of time. I have one more good band about to come through and it stretches back to east of Chattanooga. Maybe I will get lucky for about an hour. Yep. We had about five minutes of sloppy flakes mixing with rain. Waiting for snow in NW GA is like watching a Falcons game. Heaven forbid we have a blowout. Everything has to be buttpuckering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Heavy snow showers now sitting at 34 degrees. Just started as that blossom of returns pivoted into my area. Keep going baby! hey liquidbud do you live on yellow mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I just rewinded it and he said at this point in time, all the precip is in the form of rain. He showed 2 areas of precipitaion that we will expierence, the second area being the comma head in SC. It is that second part of precip from the area now in SC that we will expierence until the wee hours and it is that area that gives us the highest probability of expierencing snow. He never gave a time it will begin. Now, at the 6:20 full forecast he said he is concerned that many of us in Raleigh will no see much. So, you come on now, get your facts straight before jumping on me. Yeah, I saw that. Like someone else said though, he plays it super safe anymore. In fact the way he spoke, it was rather annoying to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 hey liquidbud do you live on yellow mountain. Bee Tree actually, but not far from Yellow Mountain as the crow flies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yep. We had about five minutes of sloppy flakes mixing with rain. Waiting for snow in NW GA is like watching a Falcons game. Heaven forbid we have a blowout. Everything has to be buttpuckering. LMAO!!! Love the football analogy because I was going to say it looks like Alabama beat Georgia again. (I kid, I kid). UGA has mucho respect from me! Anyway, it's disappointing but the models certainly started picking up on it and we didn't have to squabble over ratios after all. I hope we have a better opportunity in February. I like what Larry's statistics say about February for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 ColdRain: he said it would start around 9-10 in the Triangle and would be over during the wee hours of the morning. Come on now. King Wince is lost. I just rewinded it and he said at this point in time, all the precip is in the form of rain. He showed 2 areas of precipitaion that we will expierence, the second area being the comma head in SC. It is that second part of precip from the area now in SC that we will expierence until the wee hours and it is that area that gives us the highest probability of expierencing snow. He never gave a time it will begin. Now, at the 6:20 full forecast he said he is concerned that many of us in Raleigh will no see much. So, you come on now, get your facts straight before jumping on me. I'm not jumping on you. Just pointing out what he didn't say. The 6:20 broadcast, he said it would be over around midnight or shortly after. The 5:15 one, he said the same thing. It's not going to start in the wee hours of the morning in the Triangle...s'all I'm saying. Sorry if I came across bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 500 mb ULL still appears to be neutrally aligned. It's centered over NE Georgia at the moment. One contour closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah, I saw that. Like someone else said though, he plays it super safe anymore. In fact the way he spoke, it was rather annoying to me. Yes, it's really annoying to me. It's not really a forecast. He just starts low all the time and then changes things as needed so he won't be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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