packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The latest hi-res NAM snow totals did not look too good either: I would imagine the RPM mimics this. I guess we will see how good these models are, they are usually are fairly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The weather channel has a heavy band of precip. going through the Atlanta area in a couple of hours or so, but it changes the snow band currently in East Al. to rain once it gets to the Atlanta metro area. http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/USMS0347:1?interactiveMapLayer=radar&baseMap=r&zoom=7 I wonder if that band will be snow...if so and this future projection is right, the metro Atlanta could see some token flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Latest RPM...."Like" our page if you don't mind please.! https://www.facebook.com/41FirstAlert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The weather channel has a heavy band of precip. going through the Atlanta area in a couple of hours or so, but it changes the snow band currently in East Al. to rain once it gets to the Atlanta metro area. http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/USMS0347:1?interactiveMapLayer=radar&baseMap=r&zoom=7 I wonder if that band will be snow...if so and this future projection is right, the metro Atlanta could see some token flakes. If their "futurecast" is right, there's going to be a lot of doom and gloom in NC. This basically has the deformation band setting up way north in VA and producing virtually no snow across the western piedmont of NC. I don't know what in-house model they use, but that was ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 21z RPM rolling in..... it's a disaster for snow fans. It could very well be wrong, but if it's right, everybody's forecast (mine too for sure) is in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 21z RPM rolling in..... it's a disaster for snow fans. It could very well be wrong, but if it's right, everybody's forecast (mine too for sure) is in big trouble. No change over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Became very concerned when I saw the RAP weaken the 500 mb low 2 hours earlier than the previous run. That means a weaker 850 low, which means less of a temps crash and the dominoes keep falling ..... 21z RPM rolling in..... it's a disaster for snow fans. It could very well be wrong, but if it's right, everybody's forecast (mine too for sure) is in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 500 mb low is down to one contour currently and seems to be a little further north than has been modeled in past days. This could result in the heaviest bands of snow actually occurring much further north than what we originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 No change over? CLT never goes over to all snow.... changeover is late in the Triad.... only about an hour of pure snow after a mix for a while. Accumulation totals....ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 CLT never goes over to all snow.... changeover is late in the Triad.... only about an hour of pure snow after a mix for a while. Accumulation totals....ugly. Yikes. Not good...nope not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's been said by others but before all the weenies throw themselves off a cliff...it's more of a NOWCAST event at this point. Don't have a meltdown over one model run. This is the fun part where you get to see the science at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 FWIW, our expected less than 1" is now upgraded changing over after 9:00 and 1-2 inches expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 CLT never goes over to all snow.... changeover is late in the Triad.... only about an hour of pure snow after a mix for a while. Accumulation totals....ugly. From what I see the triad changes over about 8pm, which is an hour late, which is alot, RDU changes over between 9-10pm, only about 2-3 hours of snow, not sure of accumulations though. I see CLT flip very late. I think it's wrong based upon what it shows right now on radar versus what RPM shows at 5pm, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Radar returns filling in with this band over western Upstate SC...developed in the last hour. Wish the temps would catch up so it can change to snow (if it does). http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=gsp&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 No change over? Doubtful south of the line laid down this morning. Blowing Rock web cam will be nice for a bit this evening. http://www.resortcams.com/webcameras-blowing-rock.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's been said by others but before all the weenies throw themselves off a cliff...it's more of a NOWCAST event at this point. Don't have a meltdown over one model run. This is the fun part where you get to see the science at work. I agree, and I am not saying it's right. But it has been a trend on the last 3 RPM model runs, and it raises a red flag in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Snow now mixing with rain on the Gordon/Bartow county line. Sitting at 36F All rain here still. Your ob gives me hope though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Snow now mixing with rain on the Gordon/Bartow county line. Sitting at 36F And Greg brings it home for Ga It's stunning to sit here and watch it drying up before it even hits the degenerators..stunning even though I knew it was coming...expected it I'm near the mid 30's now. Maybe if I go out later, I can slip on some ice, and pretend I got a winter storm, lol. Great weather though. Cold, windy, cloudy, almost all of what winter should be like. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The next few hours will tell the story. If we don't start see a changeover in the Triad by 8, forecasts are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I agree, and I am not saying it's right. But it has been a trend on the last 3 RPM model runs, and it raises a red flag in my mind. Agreed, it's definitely not a trend you want to see a few hours before show time. Some folks just always seem to forget that models are guidance not gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Brad P is trying to calm the weenieshttp://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/614651_433845446687917_1925117763_o.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Radar returns filling in with this band over western Upstate SC...developed in the last hour. Wish the temps would catch up so it can change to snow (if it does). http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=gsp&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Good to see you on here Brad! It has yet to stop raining here in Oconee all day. We will def break a daily rainfall record! The radar just keeps filling in over and over here and the colder 850's are knocking on the door from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Brad P is trying to calm the weenies http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/614651_433845446687917_1925117763_o.jpg Liking the redevelopment in the upstate right now.... Winds have really started to HOWL around the last 20 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The next few hours will tell the story. If we don't start see a changeover in the Triad by 8, forecasts are in trouble. What happened to not trusting the models for dynamically driven storms? If the 850mb temps goes into the snowfall forecast, if the 850mb temp is 0.1 C it will register as rain, when in reality that wouldn't be the case. Couldn't the RAP model not be seeing something here as far as the dynamics of the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Good to see you on here Brad! It has yet to stop raining here in Oconee all day. We will def break a daily rainfall record! The radar just keeps filling in over and over here and the colder 850's are knocking on the door from the west. And you as well. It's been awhile. Let's hope we can get in on the action and the 850's will show some love to the western Upstate after 7P. I think we'll all know whether this is a bust between 7-9 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like the deform band is reforming east of the mountains right now . This is the band that should be the snow maker. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Can't get tied up in these changeover systems, they rarely work out and when they do they under perform. Quite simply, its just not cold enough in the piedmont. I was getting into it when all the models were pumping it up, but this afternoon with pouring down rain its still 45, I knew it wasn't happening. Never seen dynamics drop temps that much that quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like the deform band is reforming east of the mountains right now . This is the band that should be the snow maker. We'll see what happens. Exactly that has always been what the snow maker for us was going to be. We all knew that all this initial heavy precipitation was going to be rain for all in NC outside of the mountains. The show will begin later as the low moves by. I think all will be well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Can't get tied up in these changeover systems, they rarely work out and when they do they under perform. Quite simply, its just not cold enough in the piedmont. I was getting into it when all the models were pumping it up, but this afternoon with pouring down rain its still 45, I knew it wasn't happening. Never seen dynamics drop temps that much that quick. But some of the NWS discussions talked about the temps dropping big time in a couple of hours. It's just that so much of the forecast depends on the models and it usually ends up being a lot less of a big deal than the models show. I don't know why they have such a hard time with snow around here. But it seems they can't be trusted at all, not even inside 24 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Greg Fischel says for RDU not going to snow until wee hours in the morning and he believes The warm ground will limit accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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