LovingGulfLows Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It looks like the models are trending towards more realistic snow totals for NC. I never fully believed the widespread 6+ inches across the western 2/3's of the state. I also still don't believe most of Atlanta will get much....the northern metro counties have a decent chance though(North Fulton, Forsyth, Cobb, Cherokee). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm having a hard time seeing AVL seeing as little snow as GSP is forecasting. I agree. The 20Z RAP really shows the deformation zone building up over the next hour or two and then slowly drifting east through the evening. With snow falling in neighboring counties already, and rain drop sizes increasing here, it won't be much longer before we go to all snow. That being said, I am lowering my original forecast of 5-8" down to 3-5" for Asheville, only because QPF looks to be lower. But, if we get under an intense band, with thunder, as the RAP suggests, all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I never saw anyone forecast 6 inches over 2/3 of NC?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Guy over at Talkweather in Helfin, AL reporting light-moderate snow. Come on band hold together and bless us ATL folk!! 41o here Lol, we want the cold so bad, even though it eats the goodies it brings us. My dp is dropping so I expect I'm drying out while I wait for the snow exterminators along the border to kick in. Big winds blowing though. Just heard a tree go. Just love the general weatherosity of this kind of occurance T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windyinnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GSP just sent out a update regarding the storm. I'm in Charlotte and feel much better than I did about 2 hrs ago after reading it. Looks like we will erase our 2 yr streak (not counting the Trace reports of course). Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC352 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGHTHE EVENING....LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDSTO THE COAST BY EVENING. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTONORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. THE COLD AIRWILL THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THIS ISEXPECTED TO RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW OUTSIDE OF THEMOUNTAINS BY EARLY EVENING. HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AREEXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH CAROLINA.MEANWHILE...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OFSOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHCAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINAPIEDMONT.NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-508-510-180500-/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T1100Z/ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD352 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* TIMING...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BY EARLY EVENING. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING...AND MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN CONVECTIVE HEAVY SNOW BANDS.* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES TO FALL AND PULL DOWN POWER LINES. TRAVEL PROBLEMS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. BLACK ICE IS ALSO LIKELY.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I never saw anyone forecast 6 inches over 2/3 of NC?? It's called hyper-selective input. If a forecast was for 1-12" the only number visible to many would be the 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I never saw anyone forecast 6 inches over 2/3 of NC?? I was saying the models. Many models last night were showing widespread 6-8 inch totals for many areas in NC and I didn't really believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 HRRR Radar at 9PM tonight http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/853/hrrr.png/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like with current RAP runs, that Lexington/CAE may be lucky to see a few sleet pellets mixed in along with a couple wet flakes. ULL too far North for us guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 HRRR Radar at 9PM tonight How often does that model update? Hourly, like the RAP? The RAP seems to set that band up more northward, if I'm looking at it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 HRRR Radar at 9PM tonight How often does that model update? Hourly, like the RAP? The RAP seems to set that band up more northward, if I'm looking at it correctly. HRRR just goes crazy in GSO form 9-10pm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 One thing I noticed on the 4km HWRF/RAP/HRRR is that after 11:00pm it really starts to weaken the deform band, if it would hold together a little longer it would make a world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 One thing I noticed on the 4km HWRF/RAP/HRRR is that after 11:00pm it really starts to weaken the deform band, if it would hold together a little longer it would make a world of difference. Deform bands usually hold together longer than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 500 mb ULL has weakened to a single contour now. Still looks to be oriented neutrally. 850s are crashing below freezing in NW NC now. Finally making in-roads. Let's see some chaneover! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What is the current expected duration of frozen precip? 2 hours at most? Thought Robert said a 3/6 hour period earlier. I think the general thinking for Charlotte area was 8 to midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 One thing I noticed on the 4km HWRF/RAP/HRRR is that after 11:00pm it really starts to weaken the deform band, if it would hold together a little longer it would make a world of difference. Does it update hourly as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 500 mb ULL has weakened to a single contour now. Still looks to be oriented neutrally. 850s are crashing below freezing in NW NC now. Finally making in-roads. Let's see some chaneover! Looks like RAP had the same thing, although what is verified appears just a hair south of where the RAP has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 How often does that model update? Hourly, like the RAP? The RAP seems to set that band up more northward, if I'm looking at it correctly. Should be hourly, but for some reason, it doesn't appear to have updated since 14z (didn't realize that until I posted)...but looking at the RAP, it looks similar to me with the simulated radar...in W NC anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Does it update hourly as well? Well the HRRR and RAP does but for some reason the HRRR site I use hasn't been updating, maybe they turned it off to focus on the RAP, I think the RAP is better IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well the HRRR and RAP does but for some reason the HRRR site I use hasn't been updating, maybe they turned it off to focus on the RAP, I think the RAP is better IMO. Thanks guys. You nailed the reason for my question. It hasn't updated since 14Z. Thought I was doing something wrong. I like the deform band on it better than the RAP, but that's because it's farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/201/satv.png/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm having a hard time seeing AVL seeing as little snow as GSP is forecasting. yea that seems awful conservative to me with everything I'm seeing and reading. I would think more 4-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I agree. The 20Z RAP really shows the deformation zone building up over the next hour or two and then slowly drifting east through the evening. With snow falling in neighboring counties already, and rain drop sizes increasing here, it won't be much longer before we go to all snow. That being said, I am lowering my original forecast of 5-8" down to 3-5" for Asheville, only because QPF looks to be lower. But, if we get under an intense band, with thunder, as the RAP suggests, all bets are off. looks like 4-7 is a good possiblity for AVL if we get the thunder snow and the deformation zone comes over head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I know I'm not supposed to talk about the RAP anymore, but the last couple runs have shown a clear trend of weakening the 500mb low earlier. Remember late this morning it survived all the way until 4z Friday AM/Thursday night. Well, the fresh 21z run has it opening up at 1z Friday -- three hours earlier. Frankly, I don't see an impact on the sensible weather the run depicts (temps or precip) from this change, but I thought it was worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I just watched WBTV and WCNC and both their stormcast look the same..bleek. Jeff Crum just tweeted that NEWS14 stormcast totals were down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I just watched WBTV and WCNC and both their stormcast look the same..bleek. Jeff Crum just tweeted that NEWS14 stormcast totals were down. Yep, the 18z run of the RPM was flat-out ugly for snow fans. I put up a little blurb about it on FB and twitter earlier. We will see. Taken a face value, it prints out basically no accumulation for HKY and CLT and only 1-2 for GSO. The reason? Much slower changeover. It's NOWCAST time, but that is definitely something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Robert is saying 6-10 for most of WNC but Jason on 13 is saying 1-2 inches for AVL. Why is channel 13 weather so conservative with the way everything is looking . does gsp not see the heavy snow for the whole area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Snow reported at KPUJ in WRN GA but apparently they are elevated 200-300 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The latest hi-res NAM snow totals did not look too good either: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yup have a feeling that 6-10 inches wont happen unless you have significant elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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